This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing the Jets vs. the Dolphins for Fantasy Football Lineups. Fantasy rosters needed protective spray because key players continue to miss extended time due to injury. We are expecting a handful of quarterbacks returning to health, which of course will impact receivers and backs around the league. As a result, we have plenty to parse through and discuss this week. With that in mind, let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 9 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
To read the FULL column, click HERE.
Be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Total: 41
Line: NYJ -3
Jets passing game
It is Halloween, so there is a great chance that Sam Darnold is still seeing ghosts. It’s no secret that Darnold has not played well over the last two weeks but this is what we’ve been waiting for. Darnold’s schedule opens up in a big way, starting this week against the Dolphins. Miami continues to allow fantasy points to pretty much everyone and quarterback is no different, as they are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. The Dolphins are also coughing up 2.6 passing touchdowns per game, the second-most in the league, as well as the second-most points per drive (2.94).
The pass rush shouldn’t be an issue here either, as Miami is generating pressure just 16.9 percent of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. Miami is also allowing 38.5 yards per drive, the second-most in the league, so Darnold and the Jets should be able to move the ball without many issues here, making him a top streaming candidate. Although DK priced all the Jets up, you can still consider him this weekend.
Despite trade rumors circling him over the last two weeks, Robby Anderson remains a member of the Jets. After being a non-factor in the crippling Jets offense to open the season, Anderson has seen 22 targets over the last three weeks. And over the last four weeks, he has seen nearly 29 percent of New York’s targets. Now he gets a prime spot against the Dolphins, who have struggled against the speedy, deep-threat receivers this season. Miami is allowing 13.1 yards per completion on the year, the second-worst mark in football. Now Xavien Howard is on injured reserve, making this an even better matchup for Anderson, who would have likely been shadowed by Howard in this game.
The Dolphins just allowed over 100 yards and a touchdown to JuJu Smith-Schuster last week and are now coughing up 1.9 touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts, easily the most in the NFL. Anderson is a very strong, high-upside WR2 or WR3 for this week.
Since Week 6, Anderson leads the Jets with 22 targets. Jamison Crowder and Demaryius Thomas are tied with 19, though Thomas is being targeted on 14.4 percent of his snaps during that stretch, the highest rate among all New York pass catchers. He is averaging a respectable four catches per game this month and is actually a viable PPR option in deeper leagues right now, especially in a matchup with the lowly Dolphins. Thomas has played 72 percent of the snaps since Week 6, while Crowder is at 77 percent. Both are FLEX plays in full PPR leagues, though Crowder may be the odd man out on DK because of his awkward price tag.
Could Chris Herndon finally make his 2019 debut? Despite being off his suspension, Herndon has been battling a hamstring injury that has kept him sidelined for the last three games. He was limited in practice on Wednesday but the Jets believe he has a shot to return this week. From Week 6 on in 2018, he was the number-nine tight end in all of fantasy, while ranking inside the top-10 in yards per reception (12.9), yards per target (9.0) and red zone receptions (six). Because Gase likes to pass so often when in close, Herndon could be a sneaky touchdown-scorer, especially since the Jets lack big targets. If he doesn’t play, perhaps Ryan Griffin warrants some attention. He scored twice last week and logged a whopping 95 percent of the snaps.
Jets running game
Rumors popped up about Le’Veon Bell also being on the block, but he too remains with Gang Green. Head coach Adam Gase seemingly never wanted Bell on the team, but I doubt he suddenly goes to the bench. This is a guy playing 91 percent of the team snaps, second to only McCaffrey in the entire league. He gets the best matchup he’s had all year long, facing a Miami defense that is allowing 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game. Opposing offenses are calling run 52.2 percent of the time against the Dolphins, the second-highest rate in the NFL to this point of the season.
They are also scoring touchdowns on 68 percent of all red zone trips against Miami, the third-highest rate in football, while Bell has handled 100 percent of New York’s carries from inside the five-yard line and 75 percent of their carries from inside the 10-yard line. The drop in pass-catching work is frustrating but Bell shouldn’t have to catch four or five balls here to have a great fantasy outing.
Dolphins passing game
Ryan Fitzpatrick will remain under center for the Dolphins and I don’t think he’s the worst option for fantasy owners in desperation mode this weekend. He hasn’t played terribly over the last two games and faces a Jets defense that doesn’t scare me, especially with the team missing two of their best defensive players. The Jets are coughing up a healthy 24.4 completions per game this year, the sixth-most in the NFL. And the absence of C.J. Mosley has made a huge impact on the pass defense. Per The QuantEdge, opposing offenses are sporting a 15.2 percent explosive pass rate with Mosley off the field, compared to 9.1 percent with him out there. Their yards per pass attempt also jumps from 6.23 to 7.55.
Both Miami wideouts are also viable this week, especially when we are looking for some value in daily formats. DeVante Parker has found the end zone three times over the last four games and has seen 18 targets over the last two. 28 percent of his targets have come 20 yards or more down the field, which is 22nd among all receivers with at least 10 targets this season, presenting him with plenty of upside. He has also caught 46.2 percent of his contested targets, a top-15 rate among all receivers. And because they are always trailing, Miami is passing the football 66.5 percent of the time, the fourth-highest rate in football.
I also like Preston Williams once again. The rookie has quietly put together a productive season and has seen consistent targets, seeing at least six in every game since Week 1. Fitzpatrick is giving his big receivers chances to make plays on the football, as 24.5 percent of his pass attempts are into tight windows, the third-highest rate in the league. Williams is on the left side of the formation 61 percent of the time this season, which bodes well for this matchup with the Jets, who are allowing 14.1 points per game to receivers lined up there, the seventh-most in the league. He’ll line up against Darryl Roberts, who has allowed 0.52 fantasy points per coverage snap and 37 receptions in coverage this season, the third-most in the NFL. Williams is one of my favorite value plays at wide receiver of the week.
Dolphins running game
With Kenyan Drake in Arizona, the Dolphins will undoubtedly be rolling out Mark Walton as their starting running back, though they have been doing that anyway. Walton has started the last three games but over the last two games, he’s averaging a healthy 14.5 touches per game. With four teams on a bye and a lot of solid fantasy running backs, Walton enters the RB3 or FLEX consideration this week, facing a Jets defense that is already coughing up 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game, the second-most in the league, and will be without both Mosley and Leonard Williams.
Mosley has missed plenty of time this season due to injury and teams are actually running the ball nearly six percent more often with Mosley off the field on the year. Opponents are also averaging nearly a full yard per carry more without Mosley too. Meanwhile, 47.6 percent of all touchdowns surrendered by the Jets have come via the run, the sixth-highest rate in football, while 26.5 percent of all yardage has come on the ground, also the sixth-highest rate. I have a fair amount of interest in Walton this week.
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