This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing the Lions vs. the Raiders for Fantasy Football Lineups. Fantasy rosters needed protective spray because key players continue to miss extended time due to injury. We are expecting a handful of quarterbacks returning to health, which of course will impact receivers and backs around the league. As a result, we have plenty to parse through and discuss this week. With that in mind, let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 9 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
To read the FULL column, click HERE.
Be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!
Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders
Total: 50
Line: OAK -2
Lions passing game
I was all over the Detroit aerial attack last week and they went off. Now they are in a very similar spot this week, the only difference being that they are away from home. Matthew Stafford just went for 342 yards and three touchdowns against a Giants defense that struggles to limit big passing plays and now he faces another defense that surrenders a ton of explosive plays in the Raiders. Oakland has allowed 35 passing plays of 20 yards or more, tied for the second-most in the NFL, while also allowing eight such plays of at least 40 yards, the third-most in football. The Raiders are also allowing 12.2 yards per completion to this point, the fourth-highest mark in the league.
This all bodes extremely well for Stafford, who leads the league with 48 deep ball attempts, averaging nearly seven per game. Meanwhile, 19.6 percent of his pass attempts have traveled 20 yards or more down the field, the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. A big reason why the Raiders allow so many deep passing plays is because they don’t get after the quarterback, sporting the league’s lowest pressure rate at 12.9 percent. Look for Stafford to continue to produce, especially against this pass funnel in Oakland.
After a dud in Week 7, Kenny Golladay exploded in Week 8, hauling in six balls for 123 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This is a very similar matchup and Golladay benefits with Stafford’s aggressive play, as he leads all wide receivers in football with 19 deep targets, averaging nearly three per game. He should be able to do whatever he wants against this bad Oakland defense that funnels a ton of production to the pass. In fact, 75.4 percent of all yardage surrendered by the Raiders has come through the air, the fourth-highest rate in football.
Meanwhile, 79.1 percent of the touchdowns scored against Oakland have come via the pass, the fourth-highest rate in football, while Golladay is still among the league leaders in end zone targets with nine. The Raiders are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the year, so Golladay is in another smash spot.
It seems like it’ll be rare for all of these Detroit pass-catchers to go off, as Marvin Jones caught just four balls for 22 yards last week. Of course, there is always upside with Jones, who sees a ton of high-leverage targets for fantasy. His 13 deep targets are eighth in the league, while his five end zone targets are 12th-most. Jones gets a favorable matchup against Trayvon Mullen, who has allowed 2.63 yards per cover route, the second-most among all cornerbacks on the slate this week. He is also allowing 0.50 fantasy points per route, as well as 12.0 yards per target, presenting the big play Jones with immense upside in this spot.
Don’t look now, but Danny Amendola has been very productive over the last two weeks, hauling in 16 of 19 targets for 200 yards during that span. For the season, Amendola has been targeted on 17.6 percent of his snaps, which is the sixth-highest rate among receivers with at least 20 targets. With the current make-up of the Lions ground game, they could continue to use Amendola and his 8.7 aDOT as an extension of the running game. The Raiders are allowing 23.1 points per game to the slot this year, the seventh-most in the league, making Amendola a viable PPR flex play in deeper leagues.
Lions running game
Yikes.
After many fantasy owners emptied their budget on Ty Johnson last week, the Lions deployed a committee at running back. It was recently signed Tra Carson who got the start and led the backfield with 12 carries. Johnson still led the team with 40 percent of the snaps, but Carson was right behind him at 30 percent, while J.D. McKissic as at 25 percent. This is a full-blown committee, making it difficult to want to use anyone, regardless of the matchup.
Raiders passing game
I was also all over Derek Carr last week, so it was good to see that one work out. Carr threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Texans and has now scored multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games. Although the price has come up, I still am fine with using him in one of the few games of the week with a high total. Detroit’s defense has been underwhelming and banged up for most of the season, and injuries to their defensive line have limited them to a 17.7 percent pressure rate, the fifth-lowest in football. The Lions are also allowing two passing touchdowns per game this season, while Carr has performed well in play-action, sporting the league’s best completion rate off the play type at 78.6 percent.
Tyrell Williams returned to the lineup last week and scored another touchdown. The guy has found the end zone in every game this season, while seeing 36.4 percent of Oakland’s targets from inside the 10-yard line, the fifth-highest rate among all receivers. He has also seen 16.7 percent of the team’s end zone targets, the 11th-highest rate in all of football. Williams has caught 66.7 percent of his contested targets, the fourth-best rate in the league, and when he’s been on the field, he’s been very good. The touchdowns have helped him average 4.04 fantasy points per touch (fourth-most) and 0.29 fantasy points per snap (14th-most). Lions cornerback Darius Slay was not traded but he is still banged up. If he can’t go, Detroit would throw Rashaan Melvin on Williams, who has allowed 15.4 yards per reception on the year, one of the higher marks in the league.
It wasn’t the most efficient game ever but Darren Waller scored again last week while seeing another eight targets. He still leads all tight ends with a 26.7 percent target share, while his 30.7 percent target rate per route run is third-best among tight ends. Look for him to remain involved, facing a Detroit defense that has allowed three tight end touchdowns over the last three weeks.
Raiders running game
Josh Jacobs has looked the part this season. He has averaged at least 4.4 yards per carry in all but one game this season, averaging 5.0 yards per clip on the year. Jacobs is averaging 3.84 yards after contact per attempt on the season, the fourth-highest mark among all running backs in the NFL. He is averaging a healthy 19.3 touches per game on the year and is second in the league with 35 avoided tackles on the ground. The Raiders are slight home favorites this week, which should keep him on the field quite a bit, though he is running about 14 routes per game over his last three games, compared to his 10 routes per game during the first four weeks of the season.
The Lions have struggled to defend the run this season, as just 13 percent of carries against them have been stuffed at the line of scrimmage, the third-lowest rate in football. And since Week 3, Detroit has allowed a whopping nine running back touchdowns, while ranking bottom-three in fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Jacobs is a must-start and an elite mid-range play in daily formats.
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