NFL Matchups: New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football Preview

This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing the Saints vs. the Jaguars for Fantasy Football Lineups. Fantasy rosters needed protective spray because key players continue to miss extended time due to injury. Multiple backup quarterbacks are projected to start, and running backs and wide receivers are getting whittled down every week. As a result, we missed on plenty in this article, but we hit on plenty, as well. Back on the horse. With that in mind, let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 6 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.

To read the FULL column, click HERE.

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New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 44.5

Line: NO -1

Saints passing game

The Saints aerial attack went crazy last weekend against the Buccaneers and we finally saw Teddy Bridgewater take some shots down the field. His average depth of target jumped about two yards in this game and he took advantage of a weak Tampa Bay secondary, throwing for 314 yards and four scores. It was a great game for Bridgewater, but I think it was 90 percent due to the spot, facing Tampa Bay’s pass funnel defense. It was definitely good to see but I probably wouldn’t go back to Bridgewater here. The Jaguars are in the middle of the pack in terms of allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks but are allowing just 20.6 completions per game this year, the fifth-fewest in the league. Jacksonville is also allowing 1.4 passing touchdowns per game, the 12th-fewest in the league, making Bridgewater a very low-end streaming option this weekend.

If you didn’t roster Michael Thomas last week, I’m assuming you don’t enjoy money. At $6,600 on DK, Thomas had the worst price tag I have ever seen and he made sure everyone knew it was wrong. He went off for 11 catches, 182 yards and a pair of touchdowns and now leads all receivers in market share (32 percent). Thomas has caught at least five passes in every game this season while hauling in 10 or more balls in three games, giving him a massive floor and strong upside.

You aren’t benching Thomas in seasonal leagues ever but you do have to decide whether or not you want him in DFS, as his price has now skyrocketed to $7,800, making him the WR2 on the slate. If Jalen Ramsey misses a third straight game, Thomas should be able to torch Tre Herndon, who has struggled, allowing 0.44 fantasy points per cover route, the ninth-most on the slate. Over the last two weeks in place of Ramsey, Herndon has allowed eight catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns.

I was off Ted Ginn last week and the veteran found the end zone. However, that was at home against a putrid secondary. He’s now on the road, where he’s been much worse during his New Orleans tenure, and will see coverage from A.J. Bouye. Like Bridgewater, I think last week was a one-time thing for Ginn.

In a good matchup, tight end Jared Cook got the job done, hauling in four balls for 41 yards and a touchdown. He also benefited from Bridgewater’s outlier game but has at least seen six targets in each of his last two games. The tight end position is so bad that Cook, even in a weaker matchup, is a top-12 play. However, the Jaguars are allowing just 3.6 receptions per game to opposing tight ends this season (ninth-fewest) and just one tight end touchdown.

Saints running game 

Alvin Kamara was seemingly the only Saint that didn’t find the end zone last week but he eclipsed 100 total yards and continues to see an uptick in usage. As I touched on last week, Kamara is averaging over 16 carries per game in Bridgewater’s starts this season, up from his 13 carries per game all of last year. I’m not surprised that Kamara didn’t go nuts last week, facing a Buccaneers defense that is stout against the run, as 82.2 percent of the yardage surrendered by that unit has come through the air, the highest rate in football. After letting Christian McCaffrey go off for 200 scrimmage yards and three scores last week, the Jaguars are now coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, making Kamara a very strong play, per usual.

Jaguars passing game

The legend of Gardner Minshew continues. Minshew had his best fantasy game of the season last week against the Panthers, passing for 374 yards and two touchdowns, while adding seven rushes for 42 yards. He lost three fumbles but Minshew once again showed poise and accuracy in the pocket. Minshew now ranks 11th in the league in yards per attempt (7.8), while ranking 10th in passer rating when under pressure (84.8). After his great Week 5 outing, Minshew’s price has actually dropped to $5,000 on DraftKings, which has me interested. The guy is 10th in the league in fantasy points per dropback (0.53) and gets a matchup against a pass funnel in New Orleans.

70.1 percent of all yardage against the Saints has come via the pass, the ninth-highest rate in football. They are also coughing up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (23.6) and as Field Yates of ESPN points out, Minshew has recorded at least 16 fantasy points in every game this year, making him one of only three quarterbacks to accomplish that feat. And yet, his price dropped to $5,000 in a favorable matchup. In the year 2019, Minshew is a viable cash game quarterback. What a time to be alive.

D.J. Chark is for real. If only there was a song with a pun out there that we could use with him… Anyway, Chark scored two more touchdowns last week, giving him five on the season. Chark is clearly the WR1 in Jacksonville and is getting so many high-leverage targets. The 23-year old burner leads the league with 12 deep targets, averaging 2.4 per game. That has led to him also ranking fourth in yards per target (13.1) and 11th in yards per reception (18.0). Chark trails only Kenny Golladay and D.K. Metcalf in end zone targets with five, presenting him with massive upside every week, as nearly 3.5 of his 7.4 targets per game are coming either deep down the field or in the end zone.

He’ll look to keep it going this weekend against a Saints team that is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points, fifth-most receiving yards and sixth-most touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts this season. Chark might see some Marshon Lattimore in this game, who held Mike Evans to zero catches last week, but it had more to do with double teams and the Saints pass rush. Lattimore is an up-and-down corner who is allowing 2.03 yards per route covered (10th-most) and a league-leading 405 yards in coverage on the season. Chark has emerged as a WR2 option for the time being.

I also have some interest in Dede Westbrook, who, like Chark, also saw 25 percent of the team targets last week. There is no denying that Westbrook has a way lower ceiling than Chark, but Westbrook has at least five receptions in each of the last three games and is currently 15th in the league in routes run. Westbrook will get the best individual matchup, facing P.J. Williams, who has allowed 209 yards in slot coverage (3rd-most) and 16 receptions (5th-most). The Saints just allowed a touchdown to Chris Godwin from the slot last weekend and have now surrendered this to slot receivers this year:

Week 1: DeAndre Hopkins (3-50-1)

Week 2: Cooper Kupp (5-120)

Week 3: Tyler Lockett (10-151-1)

Week 5: Chris Godwin (5-85-1)

*Note numbers are only when lined up in slot, not total

This is the most I’ve liked Westbrook since Week 1. I would use him as a strong WR3 this weekend and a fine GPP or cash play at just $5,100 in daily contests.

Jaguars running game

Another week, another huge workload for Leonard Fournette. After carrying the ball 23 times for 108 yards with four catches, Fournette now ranks fourth among all backs in rushing attempts (95), 10th in catches (20) and seventh in targets (29). Fournette has also played a whopping 91 percent of the snaps through five weeks. Given that usage, I’m not sure why he is still under $7,000 on DraftKings, making him slightly interesting, despite the poor matchup. The Saints haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 27 consecutive games, though they are allowing 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game, which is 30th in the league. Fournette now leads all running backs in routes run with 161, giving him a huge floor each week. The uptick in passing game work has Fournette looking like a potential top-five running back the rest of the way, though he’s barely inside my top-10 for this week.

Click HERE to go back to the matchups column.

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