NFL Matchups: Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Preview

This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing the Titans vs. the Panthers for Fantasy Football Lineups. Fantasy rosters needed protective spray because key players continue to miss extended time due to injury. We are expecting a handful of quarterbacks returning to health, which of course will impact receivers and backs around the league. As a result, we have plenty to parse through and discuss this week. With that in mind, let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 9 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.

To read the FULL column, click HERE.


Be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!


Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers

Total: 41.5

Line: CAR -4

Titans passing game

The Tennessee aerial attack continues to get life sucked into it by Ryan Tannehill. The veteran passer has now thrown five touchdowns to one interception in his two starts, while completing over 70 percent of his passes. Unlike Marcus Mariota, Tannehill is giving his receivers chances to make plays on the ball, rather than only throwing to them when they are wide open. 75.6 percent of his pass attempts this season have been deemed on target, the seventh-highest rate in the league to this point. Meanwhile, 25.6 percent of his pass attempts have been into tight windows, the second-highest rate in all of football.

Now, I’m not saying I want to go back to him this week, facing a strong Carolina defense (despite last week’s showing) that is generating pressure 26 percent of the time, good for the seventh-highest rate in football. The Panthers are also allowing just 9.2 yards per completion, the fifth-lowest mark in football, making Tannehill a pass for me this weekend. That said, I love what he’s done for these Tennessee pass-catchers.

Speaking of, A.J. Brown salvaged his day with a fourth-quarter touchdown. He was only targeted three times but once again played over 60 percent of the offensive snaps for the Titans. I still have interest in him because of his rare combination of size and speed, which has resulted in the rookie averaging 10.2 yards per target, the 14th-most among all wide receivers this season. I usually prefer him to Corey Davis because the latter is viewed as Tennessee’s number-one wideout, which results in him seeing coverage from the opposition’s top corner every week.

In this case, it’ll be James Bradberry lined up against Davis, while Brown will play on the left side of the formation, where Carolina allows the 12th-most fantasy points per game this season. Bradberry, meanwhile, is allowing 1.21 fantasy points per target and a 69.8 passer rating in coverage this year, both top-10 marks among all cornerbacks, making Davis a tough sell, especially coming off a dud against one of the worst pass defenses in football last week.

With Delanie Walker (ankle) out last week, Jonnu Smith took advantage of the increased opportunity, catching six of seven targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. He actually tied teammate Anthony Firkser with 18 pass routes in this game, though he did play 83 percent of the snaps. If Walker sits out again, Smith would be a top-12 tight end play by default but would have more upside than most options, as the athletic tight end currently ranks fifth at his position in yards per route (3.03), while leading all tight ends in both yards per reception (15.9) and yards per target (12.6). The Panthers have been very good against tight ends on the season, coughing up the ninth-fewest fantasy points and seventh-fewest yards per game to the position, but the only truly viable one they have faced is George Kittle.

Titans running game

It was a tough matchup for Derrick Henry last week but he finished with a respectable 75 yards on 16 carries against the top run defense in football. Of course, he continues to offer almost nothing in the passing game, but Henry is still averaging a healthy 18.9 carries per game this season, while his 151 total carries are fourth-most in football. We just saw Tevin Coleman absolutely destroy this Carolina run defense last week, who are now surrendering a league-leading 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game on the season. The Panthers are also allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields and while it may seem like last week’s performance has skewed everything, Carolina has still allowed at least one rushing touchdown in every game this season. Keep using Henry as an RB2 the rest of the way.

Panthers passing game

Kyle Allen will once again start for the Panthers this weekend, as Cam Newton isn’t quite ready yet. Allen, who entered last week’s game with 153 consecutive attempts without an interception to begin a career, threw three picks against the 49ers on Sunday. He was also sacked seven times against that stout pass rush and now returns home to face another strong defense in Tennessee. Allen has maxed out at 261 passing yards this season, while Tennessee is coughing up just 1.42 points per drive on the year, the fourth-best mark in football. He also is just 29th in play-action completion rate (60.9%), 36th in deep ball completion rate (18.8%) and 30th in pressured completion rate (27.3%), making him someone I am not thrilled about using this weekend.

Since Allen took over at quarterback for the Panthers, here is how the Carolina pass-catchers have shaped up:

Curtis Samuel:                         D.J. Moore:                                  Greg Olsen:

 

Targets: 37                                     Targets: 34                                         Targets: 22

Targets per game: 7.4                  Targets per game: 6.8                     Targets per game: 4.4

Target rate: 13.1%                        Target rate: 11.6%                             Target rate: 7.5%

Samuel has the slight edge, while being targeted on 13.1 percent of his snaps, the highest rate on the team with Allen under center. Per usual, Samuel is my favorite of the Carolina receivers, especially in daily formats where he is once again fairly cheap. The Titans lost Adoree’ Jackson to injury last week and had to plug in LeShaun Sims, who had a tough time, allowing five catches for 76 yards, one touchdown and a 146.4 passer rating in coverage. Samuel and Moore are nearly identical in terms of fantasy points per target, though Samuel has run six more routes on the season. When it is this close, just give me the cheaper guy in Samuel.

But that isn’t to say Moore is a bad play. He’ll see the vulnerable Malcolm Butler, who has allowed three touchdowns and nearly 400 receiving yards in coverage this season. At under $5,000 on a slate where we need value, I have interest in both Carolina wideouts this weekend.

After somewhat of a hot start, Olsen has fallen off as of late. Over his last four games, Olsen is averaging an ugly two receptions for 17.5 yards and has yet to score a touchdown. Olsen is still fifth among all tight ends in routes run (220) but is outside of the top-22 in both yards per pass route and yards per target, limiting the upside. Still, an every-down tight end is going to be in your starting lineup, especially this time of the year, while the Titans are bottom-10 in fantasy points (10.4) and targets (7.4) per game to opposing tight ends on the season.

Panthers running game

In the worst possible game imaginable last week, Christian McCaffrey still eclipsed 100 rushing yards, still scored a touchdown and still got you 30 fantasy points. Need I say more? The fantasy MVP still leads the league with an 89.7 percent opportunity share, while also ranking fifth in carries (141) and third among running backs in targets (50). McCaffrey is now $10,000 on DK, forcing you to make the decision: do you pay up for him or go down to other running backs? At the moment, there isn’t a ton of value on this slate, but getting that safety in McCaffrey has been so important all year long. The Titans are coughing up the second-most receptions per game to opposing running backs this season (6.5), for what it is worth.

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