NFL Preview Chapter 4: Wide Receivers, Vegas Odds Of Leading The NFL In Receiving, And Which Guys Are Actually Good?

We’re now a month into this NFL preview of ours, training camps are in session, and the media hype cycle is operating at full steam making it a skill set to decipher what’s coach/reporter speak and what’s reality. But that’s what we’re here for, helping you sift through the mess that is fantasy football and identifying the places you really want to attack and dedicate resources to in so you can win your season long leagues and millionaire makers and we can all drive around in cars with leather seats made of pigskin.

This week in Chapter 4 we’re going all in on wide receivers, their Vegas odds of winning the receiving title, and some of the key stats you need to know to predict who’s in a good spot and who may be due for a regression sandwich in 2018. Here are the previous breakdowns:

Chapter 1: Offseason review
Chapter 2: Quarterbacks
Chapter 3: Running backs
This Week: Wide receivers
8/10: Tight ends
8/17: Defenses
8/24-8/31: Basics of NFL DFS

Josh Engleman and I livestreamed the video companion to this article above so check that out while you read through this. And without further adieu, onto the receivers:

Arizona Cardinals (Relevant WRs: Larry Fitzgerald [+6600 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Chad Williams, Christian Kirk, Brice Butler)

New offensive coordinator Mike McCoy was not the most impressive passing game lead before getting fired in Denver last season, picking up just 5.9 yards per attempt. The blame can be spread around, particularly with the Broncos’ rotating carousel of mediocre QB play, but McCoy really didn’t do much to balance out the obvious deficiencies of the position or play into the strengths of his two elite WRs in Emmanuel Sanders or Demaryius Thomas. Before that stint, McCoy did have a reputation as a passing game guru, leading the chargers to an 8th ranked passing offense in 2016 as well as the Broncos to a 2nd ranked passing attack in yards per attempt during his previous O.C. stint in Denver in 2012. Overall, these are signs, along with the high-frequency targeting of RB David Johnson, to question the opportunity of passing attack for the Cardinals after losing the vertically minded Bruce Arians to retirement. But the ageless Larry Fitzgerald does seem like one place you can feel comfortable rostering at wide receiver; Fitzgerald was 8th in the league in target share with 27% of the targets in Arizona going his way as well as finishing 7th in the league with 1.31 red zone targets per game. The other parts of the offense are even more unproven this year outside of Brice Butler, increasing the likelihood that Fitzgerald dominates the ball even more than he has…as long as Father Time doesn’t get him. Training camp battles will reveal more about the rest of the roster; there’s been a lot of hope pegged to the growth of Chad Williams and a lot of hype for rookie Christian Kirk (whose SPARQ athletic profile compares favorably to Stefon Diggs) but Brice Butler also seems like a decent chance to get a look. He clocked 17.4 air yards per target in Dallas last season, a noteworthy number given his low 5% target share. Any increased opportunity for him in Arizona could portend a few surprising performances but would probably be a big knock on the ability of Williams and Kirk if they don’t seize the role in preseason.

Atlanta Falcons (Relevant WRs: Julio Jones [+500 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley)

Julio Jones’ odds represent a 16.7% chance to lead the league in receiving yards, a nice boost for Falcons fans who may have been concerned about Jones being in camp before he recently revised his contract enough to find the middle ground with Atlanta brass. Jones was 3rd in the league in target share last season, picking up 27.9% of the targets for an Atlanta passing offense who was 6th in the league in yards per pass. It would be nice to see Jones used more effectively in the red zone – his 1.2 red zone targets per game would have him only at 11th in the league and his 5.3% red zone TD catch rate is by far the worst amongst the top receivers – but the value proposition on Julio remains as strong as ever. Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley would likely shake out to be more of a DFS play than guys you’d want on your season-long roster. Ridley and Sanu will both pick up some of the 50+ targets that Taylor Gabriel leaves behind but the rookie Ridley doesn’t project to have the deep ball athleticism or run-after-catch ability that Gabriel does. Julio seems like as safe of a play as you’ll find in at the position but everything else seems middling.

Baltimore Ravens (Relevant WRs: Michael Crabtree [+8,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], John Brown, Willie Snead)

Baltimore has completely overhauled their receiving corps and Joe Flacco has reportedly felt the breathing down his neck with the drafting of Lamar Jackson, allegedly throwing the ball better in training camp than he has in his whole career. The success or failure of this group will largely depend on his ability to improve upon Baltimore’s dead last 32nd in the league 5.3 yards per pass attempt last season. Crabtree would stand to be the biggest beneficiary but despite a solid fantasy season in 2017, he only snagged 57.4% of balls thrown his way, pretty atrocious for a #1 WR. Brown was even worse, grabbing only 38.2% of the balls thrown his way in another injury-riddled season that wasn’t helped by some of Carson Palmer and the Arizona offense’s woes. Snead only caught 50% of the balls thrown his way by the league’s most accurate QB in Drew Brees…you get where I’m going here. All of these guys can be viable on a week to week basis but Flacco will have to be exceedingly accurate while also pushing the ball downfield more than he did last year with a super pedestrian 4.4 air yards per attempt. You’re banking on a lot of variables to fall in line with this group and I’m not sure it’s an area I’d be dying to target knowing what else is out there.

Buffalo Bills (Relevant WRs: Kelvin Benjamin, Jeremy Kerley, Zay Jones)

New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll comes from Alabama with a scheme expected to rely heavily on tight ends and running backs, playing into the conservative approach to offense that worked well for the talent-bereft Bills en route to a 2017 playoff berth. With AJ McCarron and rookie Josh Allen at QB, it’s not a safe expectation that there will be enough volume for any wide receivers to be valuable, let alone multiples of them. Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin did as well as they could with the pupu platter of quarterback options in 2017, though Jones did a terrible job of reeling in targets with just a 36.5% catch rate. Jeremy Kerley may fit the Bills’ expected play style better with a an 81.5% catch rate and a mostly short route tree with only 9 air yards per target for him. None of these guys are going to interest me but it’s not impossible to see some PPR value for Kerley. Again, you’re banking on a lot of variables if you want to buy in on any Bills receiver and even a talented player like Benjamin seems unlikely to be used to his peak effectiveness with this offense and QB group.

Carolina Panthers (Relevant WRs: Devin Funchess {+6,600 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Torrey Smith, DJ Moore)

New offensive coordinator Norv Turner will likely need to figure out ways to get his wide receiver group more involved in dynamic ways and Devin Funchess is an obvious likely beneficiary. He led the team in targets in 2017, a target share of 22.2%, and his 12.8 air yards per target pairs well with the 6.9 targets per game that he gets. He’ll need to improve upon a 56.8% catch rate that is nowhere near where a #1 WR should be but it’s not unreasonable to expect improvement for him given his age and how he had to adjust to the lead dog role last year with the sudden departure of Kelvin Benjamin. Torrey Smith may have shown his best days to be behind him in Philadelphia where, despite an elite QB with no reservations throwing the ball downfield, Smith only got 53.7% of the balls thrown his way and didn’t generate yards after the catch like he has in previous years. That may benefit rookie DJ Moore, a player who’s been touted as a potential top receiver in the draft and grades out with elite athleticism in all of the areas you want from your wide receiver. Funchess and Moore have the potential to be a dynamic duo and while Smith may find some value, Moore is clearly the future at the position. If Turner can help Cam Newton improve upon a poor 59.3% completion percentage, there may be a lot of value to extract from this group who doesn’t get a ton of love or recognition.

Chicago Bears (Relevant WRs: Allen Robinson [+6,600 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Kevin White, Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller)

New coach Matt Nagy and coordinator Mark Helfrich are expected to favor a run-pass option offense in 2018 and any success managing that, and the growth of QB Mitch Trubisky, will likely result in an increased opportunity for an overhauled wide receiver group. Allen Robinson has previously shown an ability to excel at the position despite inferior quarterback play and after a 2017 season lost to injury, there’s no doubt that he’ll be looking to reassert himself and prove his worth on a relatively rich free agent deal. Fellow new signing Taylor Gabriel has shown gamebreaking ability in his previous stops and may have some value in open space if the Bears are willing to allow Trubisky to air it out more than his 7.7 air yards per attempt he had in his rookie year. Former first rounder Kevin White has continued to disappoint with a mix of injuries and ineffectiveness, possibly opening the door for rookie Anthony Miller to carve out a role after picking up rave reviews so far in camp. Much like a few other situations we’ve discussed, banking on any part of this receiver corps will mean depending upon a few dominoes to fall, namely Trubisky getting a real chance to improve upon a 24th ranked yards per pass attempt offense. It’s possible, and I do believe that the usage of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen will help provide more lanes for Robinson and co to get open, but there are likely much safer places to look for both season-long or daily fantasy performance.

Cincinnati Bengals (Relevant WRs: AJ Green [+1,600 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Brandon LaFell, John Ross)

Cincinnati was 22nd in the league with 6.1 yards per pass attempt in 2017 and they’ll need to see some improvement in that department to have any success as a team. Despite the failings last year, AJ Green’s opportunity was no worse for wear. He was 2nd in the league in target share with 28% of his team’s targets going his way and despite only grabbing .44 red zone targets out of 1 per game attempted for him, he pulled down 8 touchdowns. The return of Tyler Eifert to full health would be a boon for Green but it’s safe to say he doesn’t totally need one to be effective because of his talent, volume, and ability to catch balls in tight spaces. Brandon LaFell was also a decent #2 WR with a 17.5% target share that would be right in line with far more successful receivers like Stefon Diggs and Rishard Matthews. LaFell won’t get the red zone looks or air yards to do a ton of damage but it’s certainly possible he has use as a flyer or DFS play. It’s also worth noting that John Ross remains a weapon that both Cincinnati and their observers would like to see healthy and a part of the offense; Ross brings super-elite 4.2 speed after a lost rookie year and any ability by him to stretch the field will only aid the rest of the offense in a multitude of ways. I wouldn’t expect the volume to be there for him but a life as the poorest man’s version of Will Fuller would still be a huge asset for this offensive unit.

Cleveland Browns (Relevant WRs: Jarvis Landry [+10,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Josh Gordon [+3,300 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Corey Coleman)

Free agent signing Jarvis Landry thinks that Cleveland can be a Super Bowl team who puts up 40 points a game and that’s an exceedingly lofty goal. But the Browns are in position to walk before they run this year and Landry will likely be a big part of that. Landry was the entirety of the Dolphins’ offense last year, picking up a 3rd best 161 targets and a 26.7% target share along with a 4th best 1.44 red zone targets per game. He achieved all of that despite Miami being a 27th ranked 5.9 yards per pass attempt and precious little offensively to get defenses off of him. Landry is a dink and dunk receiver but to use him effectively means to get him a similar amount of touches and one would think the Browns will figure that out fast after paying him as much as they did. Josh Gordon is expected to return and he should be a strong compliment to Landry in more ways than just his lofty Vegas odds to win the receiving title; in his five games last year, Gordon received 16.1 air yards per target, a strong match to Landry’s underneath routes and with a higher likelihood of success with Tyrod Taylor or even Baker Mayfield at QB relative to the awful play which contributed to his 43% catch rate in 2017. Corey Coleman has also shown flashes and ability to get the ball downfield with 13.5 air yards per target in nine games last season. Coleman had .8 RZ targets per game in 2017 and while he’ll likely lose some looks to Landry, the offense being more productive overall should give Coleman a shot at being more viable on a week to week basis with defenses needing to dedicate serious attention to Landry and Gordon.

Dallas Cowboys (Relevant WRs: Allen Hurns, Terrance Williams, Deonte Thompson, Michael Gallup, Tavon Austin, Cole Beasley)

There’s been a lot of talk about the Cowboys needing more from Ezekiel Elliott in the passing game thanks to the hodgepodge group at WR after the departure of the declining Dez Bryant but this group does have potential to generate some yards if given the opportunity. Allen Hurns was an underrated piece in Jacksonville, grabbing 69.6% of the passes thrown his way compared to between 50 and 60% for the rest of that 2017 Jaguars group. Dez Bryant’s departure leaves 27% of the targets up for grabs and Hurns picking up a major share of those could portend a very sneaky shot at fantasy success, particularly if he gets the 1.25 red zone targets per game that Dez leaves behind. Terrance Williams was also better than his reputation in 2017, catching 68% of his targets along with a 15.8% target share. Deonte Thompson shakes out as more of a deep threat with 14.6 yards per reception last season while rookie Michael Gallup and slot receivers Cole Beasley and Tavon Austin will likely take the majority of preseason to define their roles. There’s a lot of uncertainty here even if you expect the Cowboys to improve their 17th ranked passing offense but I do believe the vacuum created by Dez Bryant and Jason Witten’s departures should create some value here, particularly if they pick a guy or two to feed rather than expecting the entire group to fight for scraps.

Denver Broncos (Relevant WRs: Demaryius Thomas [+4,500 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Emmanuel Sanders [+10,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving])

New offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave has a history of pushing the running game up front in previous stints but he’d be foolish to ignore the talented two WRs Denver has at their disposal. Thomas was healthier than Sanders in 2017 but they had a similar target per game number with Thomas picking up 8.8 per compared to Sanders’ 7.7 per. Thomas should remain the better fantasy play due to a slightly larger share of red zone targets, a better catch rate, and his overall size but Sanders should still have a good crack at the piece of the pie created by what’s hopefully more steady QB play from former Viking Case Keenum. Keenum was the 2nd most accurate QB in the league in 2017, in part due to their offense but still a credit to his ability, and even though he only picked up a bottom-10 7.4 air yards per attempt, any improvement by the QB play will be a boon to both Thomas and Sanders. The volume may not be there if the Broncos lean on the run game similar to Musgrave’s previous stops but there is a lot of reason to believe in Thomas and Sanders equally if Keenum’s 2017 campaign wasn’t a mirage.

Detroit Lions (Relevant WRs: Golden Tate [+5,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Marvin Jones [+10,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Kenny Golladay)

The days of free wheeling Matt Stafford may be gone but Detroit was still 7th in the league per pass attempt in 2017, picking up 7.3 yards per drop back. Both Golden Tate and Marvin Jones were effective as well, with Tate catching 76.7% of his targets at a 21% target share and Jones catching a less-impressive 57% of his targets at an 18.8% target share. Jones spread the field far more effectively though, racking up 15.2 air yards per target compared to Tate’s 6 yards per target. Much like Cleveland, the mesh of routes may be the key to success for both players, particularly when paired with the 2nd year player Kenny Golladay and his 14.8 air yards per attempt. New coach Matt Patricia retained offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter so there should be consistency amongst the unit even Patricia’s defensive-minded world view advocates for more ball control on the offensive end. But there seems to be no reason why Tate and Jones can’t continue to excel and possibly with more efficiency as Stafford continues to grow and improve after finishing a surprising 8th in accuracy last season.

Green Bay Packers (Relevant WRs: Davante Adams [+3,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison)

I’ve talked a bunch about the opportunity in front of the Packers with former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin’s return to the fold after leading them to a 1st ranked passing offense during his last stint and everything Vegas-wise has backed up what seems to be shaping up to be a resurgent year for Aaron Rodgers. But one thing I wasn’t as aware of before digging down on wide receiver stats was the opportunity in front of Davante Adams, a player who was unequivocally fantastic in 2017 despite a far inferior QB throwing to him for the majority of the year. Jordy Nelson’s departure leaves 15.7% of the targets up for grabs, a place where Adams should improve upon his 20.8% target share. Adams also led the league in red zone targets, picking up 1.64 per game and converting seven of those targets to red zone scores, both of which were tops in the league. Adams’ 63.2% catch rate given that he had the mostly inaccurate Brett Hundley throwing to him is better than it looks. Randall Cobb should also cement his role with Nelson’s absence and while he hasn’t been as good as his earlier seasons and he’s clearly more of a dink and dunk receiver with his 6.43 air yards per target, the return of Rodgers will bring more value to him. Geronimo Allison will likely see more looks as well but he doesn’t get downfield enough to be worthwhile, definitely not enough to second guess Adams and Cobb’s value as a clear #1 and #2.

Houston Texans (Relevant WRs: DeAndre Hopkins [+950 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Will Fuller, Sammie Coates)

DeAndre Hopkins’ value doesn’t depend on the full return of DeShaun Watson from a catastrophic knee injury…but it certainly doesn’t hurt. Despite Watson’s partial availability, Hopkins led the league in target rate with 33.1% of his team’s targets. The 174 passes thrown his way were good for first in the league as well. And despite 1,378 yards and 13 TDs, it stands to reason Hopkins actually could be better after reeling in only 55.2% on the passes thrown to him. Getting 16 games from Will Fuller would also be a great asset after he picked up 15.9 air yards per target on just a 9.5% target share, a number that should improve with a full healthy season from him and Watson as well as the departure of CJ Fiedorowicz. Fuller is an explosive weapon and one who seems primed to do more with another year of seasoning. New addition Sammie Coates will compete with Bruce Ellington and Braxton Miller and is expected to seize the #3 WR job, though Miller did catch significantly more balls than Coates with a 65.5% catch rate compares to Coates’ 54.5% effort, at a better air yards per target rate too. Ellington got more yards than Miller in 2017 but that seems more of a symptom of opportunity than talent. The #3 WR battle is one to monitor in preseason but I would bank on Coates getting the first shot while Miller seems more disposed to seize the role if given the opportunity.

Indianapolis Colts (Relevant WRs: TY Hilton [+1,600 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers)

It’s a big opportunity for the receiving corps in Indianapolis with new coach Frank Reich and the return of Andrew Luck. Reich will look to bring the philosophies from Philadelphia’s 11th ranked passing offense to Indy with a quarterback in Andrew Luck who has a similar ability and mindset to Reich’s former started in Carson Wentz. Hilton’s odds of leading the league in receiving yards represents a 5.9% implied probability, a nice number for a guy who didn’t even notch 1,000 yards last year. But it’s hard to lay blame at Hilton’s feet after he caught just 52.3% of his targets from the inaccurate Jacoby Brissett and Scott Tolzien. Hilton still had a 22.4% target share and that number will likely only rise after the departure of Donte Moncrief and Andrew Luck’s return. Hilton will never be a red zone threat, catching zero of his limited chances for a TD there in 2017, but his speed is still an asset as much as Luck’s reckless arm can be. Ryan Grant may be a sneakier pickup than it seems after pulling down 69.2% of his passes in Washington last season at a solid 9.7 air yards per target. Chester Rogers isn’t a threat to steal snaps from Grant but it wouldn’t shock me to see him pull down some passes en route to occasional usability either. If this team passes at the volume you expect and Andrew Luck is as healthy as he seems thus far, there may be some really underappreciated value here to unearth.

Jacksonville Jaguars (Relevant WRs: Marqise Lee, Donte Moncrief, DJ Chark, Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole)

Marqise Lee re-signed in Jacksonville after the departure of top wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns and despite the knocks on Blake Bortles, there will be opportunity for him and some of the other guys to break out of the pack here. Lee had an 18.2% target share in 2017 at 11.7 air yards per target, a number that bodes well if he picks up a few more targets than he did with his 6.9 targets per game. Donte Moncrief arrives from Indianapolis in free agency but it’s not impossible to imagine his projected role usurped by late-season surprises Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole or rookie DJ Chark (who’s received some rave reviews thus far in camp and whose SPARQ profile compares to the explosive Robby Anderson). Cole and Westbrook both had air yards per target numbers in the neighborhood of 12 and catch rates around 50% but the opportunity was bigger for Cole with a 15.7% target rate and a 40% red zone TD rate. Chark brings the most unique dimension to the group, offering another versatile deep threat to pair with Lee, Cole seems like the best per-play fit, and Moncrief will likely get the opportunity thanks to his shockingly hefty free agent contract. I’d trust Lee the most out of the group but whomever emerges from the pack as the #2 and #3 options can have some value throughout the season.

Kansas City Chiefs (Relevant WRs: Tyreek Hill [+5,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Sammy Watkins [+8,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving])

Tyreek Hill is an elite deep threat in a quarterback situation where new starter Pat Mahomes has shown no fear of airing it out and at insane competence:


Hill had a target share of 19.3% in 2017 at 11.7 air yards per target and even if he loses a bit of volume, Mahomes will likely give him chances at the deep ball plays Hill has made his name on. Added to the roster is Sammy Watkins who looks like a pretty decent complement to Hill, primarily due to his red zone success. Watkins didn’t get a ton of opportunities but converted them at a high rate with 70% of his red zone catches resulting in a touchdown, a place where he picked up 7 of his 8 scores. There are going to be some “mouths to feed” issues with Kansas City given how strong Kareem Hunt and the RB group has been, Hill and Watkins, and Travis Kelce demanding and deserving his own fair share of targets. But it’s hard for me to downgrade anyone here for that reason when all signs point to this offense being as high octane as it can get (and possibly needing it given some of the questions on their defense).

Los Angeles Chargers (Relevant WRs: Keenan Allen [+1,200 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams, Travis Benjamin)

Keenan Allen has a reputation for being injured but in his first 16-game season in a while in 2017, he was arguably the most underrated wide receiver in football. Allen caught 64.2% of his passes while receiving 27.3% of the Chargers targets and his 9.3 air yards per target show that he was more than a dink and dunk player like some of the guys we’ve discussed above. Allen also picked up 1.5 red zone targets per game and only converted .7 of them, a number which could increase given his effectiveness elsewhere on the field. He’s not a traditional big body in the red zone but at 9.9 targets per game and an offense who’ll likely be in more games than not, the opportunity should be there for Allen if he can continue his run of good health. Tyrell Williams was more of a deep ball threat with 14.3 air yards per target and precious few red zone targets to speak of. He should be able to hold off Mike Williams for the #2 slot, particularly if the younger Williams doesn’t improve upon a fairly miserable 47.8% catch rate. There will also be useful days for Travis Benjamin, a player who gets targeted 16.3 air yards downfield and is capable of breaking plays open with his yard after catch abilities. The main guy here is Allen and there’s no questioning that role, particularly as the Chargers invest heavily in opportunities for the run game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin have some real moments of usefulness from a streaming or DFS perspective, particularly in matchups where Allen can’t get the separation he needs to be effective.

Los Angeles Rams (Relevant WRs: Brandin Cooks [+8,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Cooper Kupp [+10,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Robert Woods [+10,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving])

And here we have the lone team on the board with THREE guys with any odds to lead the NFL in receiving, a big plus in the column of Jared Goff, coach Sean McVay, and the unit they’ve put together. Brandin Cooks was perceived as something of a disappointment in his one season in New England but he did exactly what you’d want out of him, getting a target share of 19.4% at 15.4 air yards per. His catch rate of 57% left something to be desired, particularly with the very accurate Tom Brady throwing him the ball, and that could be an issue with a less accurate Goff on his side. But Cooks should still get his, as should second year player Cooper Kupp. Kupp surprised me as I put together my stat research as he was actually second in the NFL with 1.53 red zone targets per game, scoring a touchdown on 22% of his red zone catches. He and Robert Woods got a similar amount of targets (94 to 85) with an almost exactly the same catch rate (66% for Kupp versus 65.9% for Woods) so the slight advantage in red zone usage would make me favor Kupp from a hierarchical standpoint. I do think Woods will get enough usage to be valuable week to week and it’s likely to come down to gameplanning but if I had to rank the trio relative to their perceived value, I think I’d go 1) Kupp 2) Cooks 3) Woods…and it’s definitely closer between 1 and 2 than 2 and 3.

Miami Dolphins (Relevant WRs: Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson)

The Dolphins lost Jarvis Landry and his 26.7% target share along with 1.44 red zone targets a game, two valuable positions to fill even for a potential also-ran like Miami may shape up to be. Danny Amendola joins the team from New England and stylistically he does seem the closest to what Landry provided; Amendola got 8.4 air yards per target, not dissimilar from Landry’s 6.4, and he actually caught balls at a better rate with a 70.9% catch rate (granted, having Tom Brady throw you the ball will also account for that difference). Amendola was less effective in the red zone than Landry but with more opportunity he may be equally competent in the role. Fellow new signing Albert Wilson brings a similar dink and dunk experience from his time at Kansas City and would be interesting if Amendola missed time (a high-probability situation) but all signs would seemingly point to Amendola getting the first crack. Kenny Stills sort of lived up to his years of hype last year, primarily as a boom or bust receiver thanks to 15 air yards per target and a 55% catch rate along with four fumbles on the year. DeVante Parker should also improve upon his target share with Landry’s departure and his big body and leaping ability would seemingly translate better to additional red zone targets than Amendola. Overall, I’d likely be most interested in a flyer on Amendola but if new coordinator Dowell Loggains embraces the passing game (a pretty big if given his predilection towards the run in his previous stops) and Ryan Tannehill can stay healthy and live up to a fraction of his potential, this offense may have more under-the-radar value to extract than I would have thought during my initial evaluations.

Minnesota Vikings (Relevant WRs: Adam Thielen [+1,800 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Stefon Diggs [+6,000 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Kendall Wright)

Here’s an interesting Twitter thread from football video breakdown specialist Cian Fahey on part of what makes Stefon Diggs great:

https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/1024340928343900162

Theoretically, Diggs will have to fight far less for underthrown balls with an elite-armed quarterback in Kirk Cousins this season stepping in for journeyman Case Keenum. Former Eagles QB coach John DeFilippo will step into the offensive coordinator role with what’s likely to be a very similar approach to what Minnesota had in 2017 with now-Giants head coach Pat Shurmur guiding the offense. Adam Thielen clocked two more targets per game than Diggs last season and it’s hard to say if that was a function of the offense or the rapport that Thielen shared with Keenum. Given Cousins’ previous M.O. in Washington of throwing the ball to anyone who can make a play, I’d be inclined to expect a more even distribution but the Vegas total seems to indicate it may be more of the same. Thielen gets more red zone targets with 1.06 a game versus Diggs’ .93 but Diggs was more effective, turning 54% of his red zone touches into TDs versus just 12% for Thielen. Both players will have a ton of use in this offense but there are certainly arguments to be made for one over the other if all things were more even in distribution from a gameplanning standpoint. Kendall Wright also deserves some mention here after a surprisingly effective 2017 in Chicago where he was targeted 91 times and caught 65% of those from Mitch Trubisky of all people. Wright’s 7.9 air yards per game would indicate more of a complimentary underneath role to Thielen and Diggs and that can certainly have use in more of a week-to-week capacity with Cousins at the helm.

New England Patriots (Relevant WRs: Chris Hogan, Julian Edelman [suspended first four games], Cordarrelle Patterson, Kenny Britt, Eric Decker)

After releasing Jordan Matthews and signing Eric Decker, the Patriots’ wide receiver group becomes even more of a clusterf*** than it previously was. Julian Edelman will miss the first four games due to a PED suspension and the guy I really trust out of this group is Chris Hogan. With Brandin Cooks, Edelman, and Danny Amendola, Hogan didn’t see much of a target share with just 10.1% of the balls thrown his way. But Hogan got 13.2 air yards per target flashing some decent downfield ability and he was a surprising 5th in the league in red zone targets with 1.43 per game. Cooks and Amendola’s departures free up 200 targets from Tom Brady and Hogan seems the most equipped to immediately take advantage of them given their existing rapport and his previous successes. Cordarrelle Patterson was likely a different player than you would think in 2017, catching 74% of his targets at only 6.1 air yards per target. In this offense, his ability to be a quick hit receiver would be a huge asset, particularly in the first four weeks without Edelman. Decker and Kenny Britt may end up having moments in the offense, more likely Decker than Britt given how they felt the need to bring Decker in, but it’s too early to project who’ll seize the snaps and routes needed to be effective until we see more of these guys and the reports out of camp and preseason.

New Orleans Saints (Michael Thomas [+1,500 odds to lead the NFL in receiving], Ted Ginn, Cam Meredith, Austin Carr)

The Saints made their bones as a rushing team in 2017 but Drew Brees still did his part with a 72% completion rate, tops in the league by 4.3%. Michael Thomas was the main beneficiary with a 27.8% target share that he made the most of, catching 69.8% of the balls thrown his way. The run game hampers him a bit in terms of his red zone opportunities as Thomas picked up just 1 red zone target per game which he converts to a touchdown at a solid 31.3% clip but his value and implied probability of 6.3% to win the NFL receiving yards title is nothing to sneeze at. Ted Ginn was also the best version of himself in 2017 as he caught an astounding-for-him 75.7% of his targets with the ball traveling 12.1 air yards per pass. He may not have the opportunity to be a super-consistent contributor at a high level but if Ginn can avoid the alligator arm issues that have resulted in him dropping a ton of balls in the past, he can be a valuable part of season-long and DFS teams. Austin Carr and Cam Meredith are expected to compete for the #3 WR role along with rookie Tre’Quan Smith and it’s unclear who’ll emerge from the pack. Meredith showed real flashes in Chicago before missing 2017 with a knee injury but Smith has some hype behind him. If Meredith wins the job, I think he’ll have a shot at some usefulness but with so many offensive mouths to feed, I wouldn’t expect him to become the target monster he was for Chicago in 2016.

New York Giants (Relevant WRs: Odell Beckham Jr [+1,000 to lead the NFL in receiving], Sterling Shepard, Cody Latimer)

New coach Pat Shurmur is expected to bring a lot of the same philosophies he carried over from Norv Turner’s offenses in Minnesota, emphasizing low risk throws into space designed to give receivers a chance to make plays. This would greatly benefit Odell Beckham and his 9.1% implied probability to lead the league in receiving. Beckham was only on the field for a few games last year but in that limited time he racked up 10.3 targets per game, good for third in the league. A lot depends on Eli Manning and whether he still has it but Beckham getting the ball in ways like Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen would give him a ton of shots at taking long touchdowns to the house on relatively low-risk routes. Sterling Shepard did an admirable job filling the void Beckham left, relatively speaking, as he was targeted 7.6 times per game and snagged 70.2% of them despite really being the Giants’ only weapon at receiver for stretches of the year. The volume should decrease some given the need to get Beckham the ball while also leaning on Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Stewart in the backfield but Shepard will likely have moments of usefulness, particularly in matchups where Beckham is facing an elite CB1. Cody Latimer was a meh player in Denver and I don’t see a ton of use for him. His 61.3% catch rate and 10.5 air yards per target may have some limited value but he’s not a guy I’d really want to grab in any format.

New York Jets (Relevant WRs: Robby Anderson [+8,000 to lead the NFL in receiving], Quincy Enunwa, Jermaine Kearse, Terrelle Pryor)

Josh McCown is expected to start the year at quarterback and all things considered he did a good job in the role in 2017, finishing 5th in the league in accuracy as he completed 67.3% of his passes. Robby Anderson picked up a 22.4% target share and converted them well enough, mostly due to his 13 air yards per target rather than his 55.3% catch rate. Quincy Enunwa missed 2017 with a neck injury but showed real flashes with his 857 yards in 2016. He’s already been banged up this preseason but his presence in the receiver corps would unequivocally help create more space…and likely take away some value from the other guys who aren’t Robby Anderson. Jermaine Kearse seems like the most likely guy to get squeezed by Enunwa or Terrelle Pryor after Kearse picked up a 20% target share last season. Kearse did a better job catching passes than Pryor did in 2017 and that may be enough to keep Pryor at bay but overall the battle for the #2 and #3 roles will be key to watch; this offense had some surprising fantasy value last year and with either McCown or big-armed rookie Sam Darnold behind center, there’s a decent chance there’ll be more opportunity to unearth here this season.

Oakland Raiders (Relevant WRs: Amari Cooper [+3,300 to lead the NFL in receiving], Martavis Bryant, Jordy Nelson)

Amari Cooper was something of a disappointment last year and it wasn’t for lack of opportunity; Cooper’s 6.9 targets per game would put him right in line with guys who exceeded their expectations like Devon Funchess, Marqise Lee, and Stefon Diggs. But Cooper only caught 50% of the balls thrown his way, an awful performance but one that seems like it has to increase this year. Michael Crabtree leaves behind 101 targets and Cooper stands to be the one to take a lot of his most valuable routes as well as the 1 red zone target per game that Crabtree excelled at. It’s a make or break year for Cooper and despite new coach Jon Gruden’s commitment to the run, I do think Cooper can get enough to get going. Martavis Bryant continued to be a competent deep threat despite a tumultuous year in Pittsburgh, grabbing a serviceable 59.5% of his targets at 14.5 air yards per. One has to imagine he’ll play with a chip on his shoulder and anything that results in him getting out there for more of his famous wide open touchdown grabs will garner some interest. Jordy Nelson wasn’t as good as he has been previously and you can point to the absence of Aaron Rodgers and Nelson’s own age as possible reasons. Nelson may have some use this year and his 60% catch rate is serviceable if he can create space for himself. But this team seems committed to the run so there’s likely only so much air love to go around and I’d feel much more comfortable banking on Cooper improving or Martavis being more of his best self.

Philadelphia Eagles (Relevant WRs: Alshon Jeffery [+8,000 to lead the NFL in receiving], Mike Wallace, Nelson Agholor)

All signs still point to Carson Wentz making a full recovery and being available early in the season, if not week one, so there’s no reason to downgrade the Eagles even if you think Nick Foles was a flash in the pan filling in last season. Alshon Jeffery posted a solid 21.3% target share at a very solid 14 air yards per attempt and he really should improve upon his hideous 47.5% catch rate with another year of comfort and coaching in the system. Mike Wallace should be a slight improvement on Torrey Smith’s role with both players posting remarkably similar air yards per target and catch rates. Smith only got 67 targets compared to Wallace’s 92 in Baltimore but Wallace can create more separation than Smith has shown in recent years and that should only benefit him, particularly given that Carson Wentz grades out as the most aggressive QB in the league. Nelson Agholor was the only guy really catching balls at a respectable rate on the team, pulling down 65.3% of his targets and the Eagles rewarded him with the most red zone targets on the team as Agholor had the ball thrown his way a surprising 1.13 times per game. Agholor works the mid-range more than Jeffery and Wallace likely will – Agholor got 10.4 air yards per target – and any additional effectiveness by his receiver peers will create more room for him to operate and improve upon his already solid 4.9 yards after the catch.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Relevant WRs: Antonio Brown [+255 to lead the NFL in receiving], Juju Smith-Schuster [+6,600 to lead the NFL in receiving])

As mentioned in the last few chapters of our NFL preview, the Steelers have promoted QB coach Randy Fichtner to replace Todd Haley as offensive coordinator. Fichtner is expected to bring more no-huddle and pace to the offense, something that would only benefit an explosive receiver group. I would also recommend reading the part of Peter King’s column on the work Antonio Brown does in camp. It’s a great window into what makes him such an elite player and the hard work required that a lot of guys sometimes forget about. Brown’s hard work and massive opportunity with a 27.6% target share make the implied 28.2% probability of him leading the league in receiving still seem like a good bet. Brown gets targeted pretty deep for a player getting the volume he does with 13.4 air yards per target and he remains a red zone focus with 1.43 red zone targets a game too. There is not a single thing to knock Brown for. Ditto Juju Smith-Schuster, who should steal some of Martavis Bryant’s targets after Juju converted his 13.4% target share into a 73.4% catch rate and 7 touchdowns. Bryant’s departure leaves 84 targets up for grabs and, while the questionable remaining corps of Eli Rogers, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and rookie James Washington will get looks, Juju looks poised to break out and be one of the best #2 options in the league.

San Francisco 49ers (Relevant WRs: Pierre Garcon [+8,000 to lead the NFL in receiving], Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor)

Jimmy Garoppolo completed 67.4% of his passes in 2017, good for fourth in the league, and there’s no reason to expect him to backslide after the Niners have theoretically improved on the line and the backfield this offseason. Pierre Garcon was solid but unspectacular in half a season of work last year, primarily a vessel for Garoppolo’s effectiveness and 8.4 targets per game. He needs to be better catching the ball than the 60% rate he showed last year. Marquise Goodwin did a much better job getting downfield with 14.7 air yards per target on his 6.6 targets per game, though it would be nice to see him catch more than 53.3% of his targets. He doesn’t have the size or pedigree of Garcon but they had the same amount of red zone targets per game and Goodwin converted them to touchdowns 20% of the time compare to zero for Pierre. Trent Taylor was a reliable safety valve with a 72% catch rate at 7.1 air yards per target and while he’ll never have the explosiveness of Goodwin or volume of Garcon, there is definitely a role for him in this offense as a limited upside PPR play.

Seattle Seahawks (Relevant WRs: Doug Baldwin [+3,300 to lead the NFL in receiving], Tyler Lockett, Brandon Marshall, Jaron Brown)

Doug Baldwin is currently battling a knee injury, something which seems to slightly ding his odds of winning the receiving title. But Baldwin was very solid last year posting 12.7 air yards per target and a solid 21% target share that’s lower than most #1 WRs but still more than enough for him to do something with. Baldwin’s not a red zone threat but he does convert 37.5% of his receptions in the zone into touchdowns, a solid clip if that region breaks his way more after the loss of elite red zone threat Jimmy Graham this offseason. Tyler Lockett posted very comparable numbers to Baldwin but with a lesser target share of 12.8%. He seems like a guy who’ll have weeks of usefulness but is far less bankable unless Baldwin were to miss some time. Brandon Marshall was pretty bad last year, catching only 54.5% of his targets in a relatively lost season in New York. It’s safe to question if his best years are behind him but the Seahawks will certainly give him a shot to be useful. Jaron Brown’s 15.3 air yards per target and 45% catch rate make him an interesting option given Russell Wilson’s love of the deep ball but without hands or a target share reliable enough to bank on at any depth. The ball will likely be spread around and there are going to be opportunities for these players to do something with it, particularly given the 80 targets Paul Richardson’s departure leaves behind…assuming new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer doesn’t bog down Russell Wilson any more than the drop-off in talent in Seattle already will.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Relevant WRs: Mike Evans [+2,000 to lead the NFL in receiving], DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries, Chris Godwin)

Tampa Bay will be without its more vertical passing option Jameis Winston due to a three game personal conduct suspension to kick off the year but Mike Evans’ odds seem to have held steady despite that expected exposure to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Evans was targeted 9.1 times a game at 14 air yards per target, a solid recipe for a player who generates very few yards after the catch, just 1.9 per reception. Despite his big body, Evans was pretty bad in the red zone and converted just 15.8% of his red zone catches into a touchdown. It seems like he should be better than that but it may be a function of the offense or failures to execute on tight throwing windows. DeSean Jackson did what you’d expect of him with 16.1 air yards per target and a 56% catch rate along with a 15% target share. He’s a boom or bust play as he always been and likely will get more bust than boom as he continues to slow down as he gets older. Adam Humphries was a competent safety valve out of the slot with 7.6 air yards per target and a 74% catch rate that would maybe give him some PPR interest but not much more. Second-year player Chris Godwin has gotten a lot of preseason hype and with some logic given that offers more of an explosive threat but less consistency catching the ball with 13.2 air yards per target and a 62% catch rate. It seems like Humphries is likely a better compliment to Evans and Jackson’s tendencies and, as a result, I’d pump the breaks a little on Godwin unless preseason and training camp reveal a larger role is all but a certainty.

Tennessee Titans (Relevant WRs: Rishard Matthews, Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, Deontay Burnett)

New offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur is coming from the Rams and, assuming he’s not an entirely a Sean McVay-led mirage, could provide real value to this Titans receiving corps. Marcus Mariota and Jared Goff posted near identical 62% and 62.1% accuracy rates in 2017 and it’s hard to say that Mariota is any less capable of doing what Goff did if things break his way. The biggest beneficiary would likely be Rishard Matthews, assuming his undisclosed injury currently keeping him off the field doesn’t become a bigger issue. Matthews had a 17.5% target share with 11.8 air yards per target and Eric Decker’s departure leaves 83 targets up for grabs. Corey Davis also should see a bigger opportunity with Decker gone and he was decent as a rookie but desperately needs to improve upon his 52.3% catch rate. Davis is getting a lot of hype as a second-year breakout player and if Matthews misses any time those odds would certainly increase. But otherwise I’m a little iffy on his prospects unless he shows some marked improvement with the additional targets and new offense. Taywan Taylor was more of a traditional deep threat in his limited routes with 14.5 air yards per target and a better-than-Davis 57% catch rate. Rookie Deontay Burnett may push for some snaps but otherwise it’s going to be up to LaFleur to make the most of a somewhat hodgepodge group the same he gets some credit for with Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods in 2017.

Washington Redskins (Relevant WRs: Jamison Crowder, Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson)

Alex Smith showed excellent touch on the deep ball and overall accuracy, finishing 3rd in the league in completion percentage with 67.5%. Jamison Crowder will likely become an immediate favorite of his, offering a checkdown-friendly 7.1 air yards per target and a 19.1% target share last season. Crowder catches the ball less than you’d like to see with a 64.1% catch rate but perhaps the accuracy bump from Kirk Cousins to Alex Smith will help him improve in his third year. On a purely statistical level, Paul Richardson grades out like a slightly better version of Josh Doctson; Richardson gets 15 air yards per target and catches 55% of them compared to Doctson’s 13.8 air yards per target and 45% catch rate. Both are young players and should improve but if I were a Doctson supporter, I’d be afraid of Richardson taking what he does and doing them even better. Both guys will get a shot though if Smith retains his commitment to effective deep passing, not necessarily a function of the Jay Gruden offense we’ve seen in previous seasons, but Crowder definitely seems like the safest bet on the board out of this crew.

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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