We are now in the final weeks before the NFL takes over all our lives with actual games instead of pedantic controversies, hooray! And that means it’s time for our last chapter of our NFL preview before we get to the nuts and bolts of the daily fantasy sports side of things like prices and rankings. Our NFL rankings are now up if you want to take a look at those but, of course, you can also luxuriate in the rest of our six-chaptered lead-in to the NFL year breaking down everything in the world of football.
Chapter 1: Offseason review
Chapter 2: Quarterbacks
Chapter 3: Running backs
Chapter 4: Wide receivers
Chapter 5: Tight ends
This Week: Defenses
Week of 8/27: Basics of NFL DFS
For the sake of fantasy sports I’m going to try to focus on each defense from a fantasy scoring potential standpoint, looking at the numbers that lead to things like statistical success rather than attempt to predict unpredictable outcomes like fumble recoveries or touchdowns, as well as discussing defenses as a place to target when they fall short in certain areas. Each team also includes Awesemo’s ranking in points for Week 1 (full rankings are available now for premium members and $20 off with promo code NFLA20 so go check those out). And without further adieu, let’s get onto the teams. The video with me and Josh Engleman is above while the written breakdowns are below. Let’s do it.
Arizona Cardinals (D in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Cardinals are bringing on board a defensive minded coach in former Panthers coordinator Steve Wilks and the hope is that paradigm shift from offensive-minded retired head coach Bruce Arians would lead to some uptick in performance. The Cardinals were 5th worst in points per red zone visit and middle of the pack at forcing turnovers or getting sacks. But former defensive coordinator James Bettcher guided the Cardinals to third in the league in yards per rush at only 3.52 and top 10 in their drive scoring percentage allowed, signs that there may be some bones for Wilks to work with. The loss of an oft-injured defensive QB in Tyronn Mathieu may be suboptimal but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cardinals somewhat useful with a philosophy shift and an aggressive Panthers-style unit.
Atlanta Falcons (n/a in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Falcons were mostly a serviceable defense in 2017, not forcing turnovers or doing much of note. Their 10.7% pass deflection rate and 1.4% forced fumble rate don’t indicate much bad luck in the turnover department, ditto a 6.6% sack rate that’s towards the bottom end of the pack. But the Falcons did a good job in the red zone, fifth in the league in points per red zone trip. A bend-but-don’t-break defense can be a road to usefulness in the NFL but for fantasy purposes I don’t see a ton to love in Atlanta’s prospects and some of the numbers, including a 27th ranked 65.5% completion rate allowed, seem to indicate a possibility of some regression down the foodchain this season.
Baltimore Ravens (A in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Ravens are a team who immediately jump off the page as due for some defensive regression after finishing 2nd in the league in interceptions and also top 10 in fumbles recovered despite deflecting a pedestrian 11.6% of passes attempted on them and forcing fumbles at a 7th worst in the league rate. That overperformance will likely result in some backslide this season. One thing working in the Ravens’ favor is how they limited QBs to a 6th ranked 58.5% completion percentage, despite a middling pass rush. The Ravens strike me as a team who may be useful week to week but seem highly unlikely to carry the team with some of the breaks of luck they got last year.
Buffalo Bills (D in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The popular assumption with the Bills’ dreadful offense is that their defense was really carrying the team in 2017 as the team somehow landed a playoff spot. However, that doesn’t look like the case as the Bills allowed a brutal 64.6% completion percentage, 25th in the league, a bottom-10 4.3 yards per rush, and a dead last 4.7% rushing TD rate allowed. The Bills also didn’t really force fumbles and were second to last as they got sacks on just 4.5% of opposing QB pass attempts. They did overachieve with an upper echelon 3.1% interception rate and a 2nd in the league 2.4% passing TD rate but again that seems lucky since they only deflected 10.8% of the passes attempted. The net net of it all is this Bills team was arguably even luckier than I initially thought with a defense who also doesn’t look as good as the narratives may have indicated. It would not be shocking to see the Bills beaten up badly this year, particularly if they remain first in the league in plays allowed, likely due to the inefficiencies of their offensive attack.
Carolina Panthers (C in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Panthers will have a new defensive coordinator in Eric Washington but the philosophies should remain the same after former D.C. Steve Wilks migrated to Arizona. There are some changes in the secondary that may lightly help or hinder a team who was already 22nd in the league in completion percentage allowed. But while the loss of defensive tackle Star Lotulelei may hurt their efforts, this is a team built around the front seven and their third-best 8.3% sack rate. As long as they can keep the pressure on the QB and limit the rushing attack to a fourth-best 2% touchdown rate, they should be able to be viable as a unit in all formats. Sacks, a contained run game, and pressure create turnover opportunities and despite some deficiencies in the secondary, this defense should have its moments from a fantasy perspective.
Chicago Bears (n/a in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Bears are a team who kept their defensive coordinator Vic Fangio despite a shift to new head coach Matt Nagy. And the defense in 2017 was serviceable enough to justify that, limiting touchdowns and picking up sacks at a 6th best rate. A 64.8% completion rate allowed isn’t great news but the pressure stats are, a spot where it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bears improve upon a 1.5% INT rate that would have them at 4th worst in the league despite that solid sack rate and a passable 12.7% deflection rate. The Bears seem like a defense with some potential, albeit in a division who will put them to the test every single week.
Cincinnati Bengals (C in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Bengals were a bit unlucky in 2017 but also a victim of their own failures after giving up 41 first downs by penalty, tied for 4th worst in the league, and allowing teams to run the most plays in the NFL against them. But their 59.9% completion percentage allowed shows a team with some potential, as does a mediocre 6.8% sack rate. The Bengals were also terribly unlucky with the 2nd worst turnover rate despite middle-of-the-pack forced fumble and pass deflection rates. Overall, this team looks to be closer to the middle of the pack despite achieving bottom of the league outcomes all last season, an ongoing theme of the Bengals throughout our previous chapters.
Cleveland Browns (E in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Browns will desperately need top pick Denzel Ward to reshape that secondary after a dead last 68.6% completion rate allowed in 2017. The Browns’ defensive backs took chances, posting a top-3 pass deflection rate, but they didn’t convert them to turnovers en route to finishing last in the league with a 1.3% turnover rate. They were brutal in the red zone too, last in the league in touchdowns allowed per red zone visit and 2nd worst in points allowed per red zone visit. The Browns would be hard-pressed to be as bad as they were last year and there are some signs of life, particularly if they can generate more pressure on the QB. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this Browns defense have some big takeaways through the air but their best case outcome is overall a middling defense with moments of usefulness.
Dallas Cowboys (D in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Cowboys are a team who did a good job limiting the damage of the passing game in 2017 but still don’t seem primed for success. Their 10.9% deflection rate is bottom 10 in the league and that combined with their middling pass rush allowed teams to complete a bad 66.4% of passes against them along with touchdowns on 5% of their pass attempts. They were better defending the rush but a 2nd worst 0.8% forced fumble rate doesn’t show much upside on that front either. Can the Cowboys be good enough to keep their offense in games in 2018? Maybe. But there is not much here to hope they’ll make significant strides unless their young linebacker group creates havoc in a way current defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli is unlikely to unearth anyway.
Denver Broncos (C in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
2017 will be remembered as the year the Broncos became mortal and with some reactionary personnel changes, they may slip further in 2018. But the Broncos were NOT as bad as they seemed last year, 2nd in the league in passes defensed and also top 5 in forced fumbles while finishing 3rd best in yards allowed. They did get beat deep from time to time, a leak that led to the 2nd worst passing TD rate, and they also didn’t get the turnovers their performance may have deserved, not turning those deflections into picks or forced fumbles into fumble recoveries. The red zone defense was also middle of the pack, not in line with their elite 3.3 yards per rush statline. The Broncos may regress from some of their performances after their roster changes but if they plug their deep ball leaks and get a little more lucky with takeaways, they might end up a better fantasy team overall as a result.
Detroit Lions (n/a in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Lions were pretty bad across the board in 2017 and they added new head coach Matt Patricia in the hopes of making their defense better…despite Patricia leading the Patriots to their worst defensive season in years. Despite the leaky defense he helmed, Patricia can add value to Detroit right away if he helps them in two areas the Patriots succeeded at despite their failures: Not causing penalties that create first downs and red zone defense. Detroit was towards the bottom of the league with 5.1 points per red zone visit compared to the Pats’ #2 3.9 points per red zone visit so any scheming he can provide there could be an asset. Detroit was lucky with takeaways last year, recovering more fumbles than they actually forced by their own defense and finishing 5th in the league in INT rate, so they’ll need to rely on more traditional methods to slow teams down than fortunate outcomes.
Green Bay Packers (n/a in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
Green Bay was ATROICIOUS defensively in 2017 and they made a ton of additions…on the offensive side. New coordinator Mike Pettine doesn’t represent a fantastic change from Dom Capers but the Packers need to improve from a 3rd worst completion rate allowed, 3rd worst passing TD per attempt, and a bottom of the league 5.6 points per red zone visit. The rushing defense was okay enough and should get better with the addition of Muhammad Wilkerson but it seems unlikely that the Packers can dig out of the defensive hole they have in the secondary, a volatile recipe for an up and down team who may provide as much value on the offensive side of the ball as they can create for opponents’ offense units.
Houston Texans (E in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
Very similar to the Packers are the Texans, a team who was worst in the league in passing TDs per attempt, giving up a score 6% of the time a team threw a pass, and also a 3rd worst yards per pass attempt. The return of JJ Watt should help them get some more sacks and the secondary did get deflections at a 4th best 16.8% rate, a sign that they may be able to generate more turnovers with the benefits that come from getting an elite former Defensive Player Of The Year back in the lineup. But overall, the same talent in the secondary lead me to think this is a team who will give up some big plays and chase them on the offensive side, another squad built to go up and down the field on both sides of the ball.
Indianapolis Colts (D in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
New Colts D.C. Matt Eberflus comes from the Cowboys organization, a group who is not exactly warranting hiring subordinates from. The Colts were worst in the league in yards per pass attempt and allowed drives to end in a score a 3rd worst 39.7% of the time while also generating sacks at a 3rd worst 4.6% rate. I really don’t see any changes here that make me think they’ll be worlds better and the only thing saving them is a middling rushing defense and completion rate allowed. A high-octane offensive attack helmed by Andrew Luck would only put more onus on this defense and there’s not a lot here to prove they’d hold up under fire.
Jacksonville Jaguars (B in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Jaguars were credited with being a historically great defense in 2017, as Jalen Ramsey would tell you, and they certainly jump off the page in a lot of areas statistically. Their 4.1% INT rate was tops in the league, as was their 3.3% turnover rate, and their 56.8% completion rate allowed. Their 9.8 sacks per game were 2nd in the league, they avoided penalties leading to first downs at the best rate in the league and allowed drives to end in scores a, you guessed it, best in the league 23.9% of the time. There may have been some luck to the turnovers since the Jaguars’ 12.4% pass deflection rate means they didn’t get their hands on passes enough to justify the number of interceptions they got but with a defense as strong across the board as the Jaguars are, there may be a trickle down effect from the pressure and a constricted field created by only allowing 5.3 yards per pass attempt. There may be some regression for the Jaguars but they’re as likely to be a steady defense, if not as opportunistic, as any team in the league.
Kansas City Chiefs (n/a in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Chiefs were a bottom five team in yardage allowed last season and none of the changes they made portend a drastic difference in that department. Kansas City generated sacks at a bottom five rate, forced fumbles less than anyone in the league, and also deflected passes at a lower rate than every other team by a fairly wide margin. Despite all that, the Chiefs were 2nd best in completion percentage allowed, a sign that they may have gotten a little lucky after not creating pressure or breaking up passes at any meaningful rate. Their rushing defense was middle of the road too and the offensive pace the Chiefs play at may result in more damage all around to a a defense who seems likely to sustain some big counterpunches to their high-octane attack.
Los Angeles Chargers (C in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Chargers were under the radar the best red zone defense in the NFL last season, allowing a league best 3.7 points and 0.36 touchdowns per red zone visit. But their rush defense was also under the radar bad, finishing worst in the league as they gave up 4.9 yards per carry. The pressure they generate is solid and the takeaways have been there as a result for them, a factor that should help them continue to have weeks of fantasy usefulness. Overall, the Chargers grade out as a team who’s just good enough at everything to mitigate damage and create defensive scoring opportunities but they may be screwed when encountering teams who won’t pivot off of the run game.
Los Angeles Rams (n/a in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Rams offense gets all the headlines but the defense has made just as many big ticket acquisition this offseason, I’m sure to the delight of current contractual holdout Aaron Donald. The Rams created turnovers despite a bottom three pass deflection rate and while normally that would indicate a shot at regression to me, the additions of Ndamukong Suh, Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, and Sam Shields should more than balance that out. The Rams generated sacks on 8% of teams’ pass attempts, good for 4th in the league, and more talent on that side of the ball certainly won’t help. The Rams may have overperformed in 2017 but the talent additions and gameplanning genius across the board in this coaching group make me think the Rams may be able to take one more gigantic leap if they get Aaron Donald in camp and all the pieces jel together.
Miami Dolphins (D in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
As has been the case for many of the Dolphins’ units, they are looking mediocre to bad defensively as well. The good: The Dolphins deflect passes 15.7% of the time, 6th best in the league. The bad: They allowed a bad 64.2% completion rate, don’t force fumbles, INTs, or sacks at bottom of the league rates, and they’re also bottom of the league in red zone defense. There are no changes in their defensive group that make me think it’ll be a different world for them so…uh, strap in for a tough year? I would target against the Dolphins far more than I ever would play them defensively and this is the first team where it’s been such a very clearly cut statistical choice.
Minnesota Vikings (C in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Vikings are a team with a reputation for a solid defense where the data fully supports that world view. The Vikings may be a little more successful generating turnovers than their forced fumble and pass deflection rates would indicate but they lead the league in yardage allowed per game and were top 6 or better in passing yards and rushing yards per attempt. They could stand to generate more pressure than their 6.3% sack rate but another top 6 red zone defense underlines the strength of the Vikings: Consistency and competence across the board.
New England Patriots (C in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Patriots will be without a formal defensive coordinator after Matt Patricia’s departure as Brian Flores takes over the official playcalling duties. But Bill Belichick’s fingers will be all over this defense that was 4th worst in yardage per game allowed, 2nd worst in rushing yard per play, and 4th worst in pass deflection rate. The team was decent in the red zone, likely the result of coaching philosophies more than pure talent, but the Patriots need to get more pressure to have any shot at real improvement. It wouldn’t be surprising to see some regression to the middle because this is a competent organization who maximizes talent more often than not. But the Patriots were bad bad last year and there’s at least a minute chance that they’re as bad this year too if Patricia didn’t take the problems with him to Detroit.
New Orleans Saints (B in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Saints were a passable defensive team who generated turnovers despite a 2nd worst pass deflection rate and a poor fumble recovery rate, meaning it wouldn’t surprise me to see them end up a little worse this year. The 44 1st downs they gave up by penalty is third worst in the league, a sign of the missing discipline that had them giving up a 5th worst 4.4 yards per rush. The Saints secondary limited quarterbacks to a solid 59.4% completion rate but there wasn’t a ton of pass rush to help that along. The picture to me paints a team whom I wouldn’t be inclined to bank on and one who may be more lucky than good in a variety of key categories.
New York Giants (D in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Giants welcome former Cardinalds D.C. James Bettcher in the hopes he can improve their defense from a 2nd worst 373.2 yards per game allowed with a comparably bad 4.6% sack rate. The Giants gave up passing touchdowns on 5.7% of opposing quarterbacks’ pass attempts, fourth worst in the league, and the hope is that Bettcher’s gameplanning ability that kept the Cardinals defensively competent despite a down season will make some improvements. And it’s possible that’s the case but this team truly performed at a bottom-of-the-league level in so many categories defensively that it’s safe to wonder how much they could actually improve.
New York Jets (n/a in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
Things the Jets did well in 2017: Limiting opposing QBs to a 59% completion rate, 8th in the league. Things the Jets did poorly in 2017: Everything else. The Jets gave up the most 1st downs via penalty, gave up passing touchdowns on 5.4% of attempts, generated sacks only 4.8% of the time, didn’t deflect passes, and didn’t generate turnovers. Besides that? They look great. No, I’m kidding. This team looks bad and the loss of Muhammad Wilkerson can’t be a help no matter how much of a locker room drain he may have been.
Oakland Raiders (n/a in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
Paul Guenther joins Jon Gruden’s staff as the defensive coordinator after a year in which he truly did seem a bit unlucky with his outcomes in the same role for the Bengals. Guenther takes over a Raiders group who was 2nd worst in completion percentage allowed (his Bengals were 12th, some hope for Raiders fans given the similar talent involved) and also dead last in drives ending in a score after giving up points on 40.9% of their defensive drives. The Raiders forced fumbles at a solid 3% clip and was better than expected in red zone touchdowns allowed but this will be a big test of Guenther’s capabilities. If the Raiders are respectable, a lot of the credit should fall to his feet. If they’re bad, well, it couldn’t get much worse anyway.
Philadelphia Eagles (n/a in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Eagles built a reputation for being a plucky defensive group and the numbers seem like they would agree. Philadelphia was solid but unspectacular in pretty much every category and generated turnovers at a rate in line with what you’d expect based off their forced fumbles and deflected pass numbers. The Eagles’ sack rate was teetering closer to bad than good and that is the one thing you could ding the Eagles – though hurries can be as valuable to a real-life as sacks and the Eagles were 8th in Football Outsiders’ pressure rate – but overall the Eagles seem in line for another defensive performance that will be just good enough to keep them in the hunt for success.
Pittsburgh Steelers (C in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
Defensive coordinator Keith Butler is reportedly on the hot seat this year but there are some encouraging signs from the Steelers D. The team led the league with a sack on 10.1% of pass attempts and held QBs to a 10th best 59.5% completion rate while allowing the 5th least yards per game. The red zone defense was an issue though, giving up a 26th in the league 5.1 points per red zone visit. The loss of Ryan Shazier is one that will unquestionably hamper this unit but if the Steelers can improve their rushing defense and close up some of the red zone holes, there’s a chance they can be an elite unit. Otherwise, they still generate a lot of sacks and picks while limiting passing touchdown damage and that’s more than enough from a fantasy perspective.
San Francisco 49ers (E in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Niners were not particularly good defensively in any area besides rushing yards per attempt and the signing of Richard Sherman doesn’t do a whole lot to anticipate a ton of improvement. This will be the second year of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and with a mostly young unit, there’s a chance they all improve in concert. But right now, this defense looks like one you want to avoid playing as well as one that could be a place to regularly attack from a passing perspective.
Seattle Seahawks (C in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
A franchise staple in Earl Thomas holding out, retirements, free agency departures, and it’s very safe to say that the famous Legion of Boom is now safely in the past. And while their 2017 demise may have been a little overhyped – the Seahawks were still 6th in points allowed per red zone visit, 7th in completion percentage allowed, and top 10 in pass deflections – the big issue with Seattle was penalties, giving up 45 first downs by penalty, just behind the Jets for worst in the league. Penalties and a mediocre pass rush will doom many a defense. The shift from Kris Richard to Ken Norton Jr. at defensive coordinator is also a questionable move; Richard’s unit was obviously undisciplined but Norton Jr was fired in Oakland for heading a far less effective unit who didn’t intercept a pass for 11 straight weeks. Perhaps the USC connection with Pete Carroll will help things but overall the Seahawks seem like a slightly underrated team who will now be legitimately as bad as people think after questionable personnel and coaching moves.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (E in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Buccaneers were quietly one of the worst defenses in the NFL in 2017, dead last in yards allowed per game, 2nd to last in yards per pass, 4th worst in completion percentage allowed, and also generating the least sacks in the league. There’s obviously a trickle down effect here; no pressure on the QB means more time to pass which means more completions, time to get downfield, and success through the air. The reason I mention this is the Bucs paid a mint to bring in Eagles free agent Vinny Curry to help out their edge rush and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him and former Super Bowl-winning teammate Beau Allen drive some more success in that department. There are still some leaks here clearly but it would be hard for the Buccaneers to be as bad as they were last year with some of the adjustments they made.
Tennessee Titans (C in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Titans bring on board Mike Vrabel after a year as Texans defensive coordinator in which he helmed a team that was active successfully but not particularly good. In 2017 the Titans did a good job containing the run at a 4th best 3.6 yards per rush and as a result teams went to the air versus them at the highest rate in the league with 37.8 pass attempts per game. Any additional pass rush or improvement to the Titans’ pass deflection or fumble forcing rates would be a big help given how often they’ve pushed teams to pass the ball. The Titans were competent in their red zone defense so there are some signs of life if Vrabel brings more of his defensive mindset to the Titans with more success than he had in Houston.
Washington Redskins (C in points in Awesemo’s Week 1 rankings)
The Redskins are towards the bottom of the league in the percentage of drives ending in scores against them and that’s largely at the foot of their rush defense, a place where they were 4th worst with 4.6 yards per rush against them. They limited teams to a third best 57.6% completion rate with a decent interception rate accompanying it so the run defense is a pretty clear spot to blame. The only big addition defensively for the Redskins was Orlando Scandrick and they already released him, so that’s not likely to help the rushing failures. I’d be willing to trust the Redskins against teams with an overmatched passing game and a middling rushing attack but they will definitely find some weeks getting gashed on the ground, particularly in a division with Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley.
