Greetings Gamers! We wind down the Conference Championships with the New England Patriots heading into cold weather Kansas City as three point underdogs. Can Tom Terrific work his mojo one more time?
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New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 / 56.5
New England Patriots 26.8 implied points
Quarterback – let’s see… the greatest quarterback of all-time believes there is a large majority of fans that feel his team sucks even though they have played in three of the last four Super Bowls, winning two of them. The same team who has arguably the greatest football coach of all-time and the franchise that has been in 8 of the last 17 Super Bowls – winning five. I think Tom Brady is mistaking schadenfreude for “nobody believes in us!”
Now that we have addressed the foolishness, we do have the largest age gap between starting quarterbacks in a playoff game with Brady 42 years old and Patrick Mahomes 23 years old. The Kansas City passing defense was middle-of-the-pack with a #15 DVOA though because they put so many points on the board, they allowed the most fantasy points this season to opposing quarterbacks and receivers. They also have the worst rushing defense with a #32 DVOA ranking, so it will be interesting to see how coach Bill Belichick plans to move the ball, particularly when considering that Kanas City tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers with a league leading 52 sacks (the Patriots allowed the third fewest sacks in the league at 21).
While the cold weather (mid-20s at kickoff) may suppress some of the offensive fireworks, the Patriots are well versed in these conditions.
If New England wants to lean on the run, we should see Brady with around 250 passing yards, if they are behind it is not a stretch to envision a 300+ yard performance. There is not much more to say.
Running Back – Sony Michel was phenomenal last weekend against the Los Angeles Chargers posting a 24/129/3 lines while catching his only target for an additional nine yards. James White was also outstanding and though he did not get a carry, he saw a team high 17 targets with 15/97/0 and we know that Brady and Belichick love to lean on him in the playoffs. Playing both is a fine way to capture the majority of the production from the New England backfield.
Rex Burkhead, James Develin and Cordarrelle Patterson combined for the other seven running back carries for 20 yards and a touchdown from Burkhead. There is not much else to focus on among this group, other than they could cede some of that production back to James White.
Wide Receiver – Julian Edelman did everything last week except find the end zone as he had 13 targets for 9/151/0 along with a carry for seven yards. Edelman and White combined for 30 of Tom Brady’s 44 pass attempts and it is not a stretch to project them to see two-thirds again this week.
Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan are favorable salary saving options on DraftKings and Hogan-$7,500 is significantly cheaper than Dorsett-$9,000 on FanDuel. That said, who knows which one will perform better as Hogan has scuffled all season and even failed to move the needle during the first four weeks of the season when Julian Edelman was serving his suspension. Not every pass is going to go to Edelman and White, so this duo should see a handful of targets once again this Sunday.
Tight End – Rob Gronkowski is still impacting the game as a fierce blocker, but it looks like he had the correct intuition this summer when he was considering retirement. He caught is only target last week for 25 yards and that gives him six targets for 3/49/0 the last three times he has taken the field. Yes, a touchdown is a possibility, but there is no longer any underlying opportunity volume.
Defense/Special Teams – Kansas City only allowed 26 sacks this season, the fifth fewest in the league and their 18 turnovers tied for the seventh fewest. This unit is in play as a salary saving differentiation option.
Kansas City Chiefs 29.8 implied points
Quarterback – Pat Mahomes aka The Wizard will be gracing the prime time slate for the eighth time this season and that is amazing for a quarterback with 18 career starts under his belt. Mahomes was the fastest and youngest quarterback to reach 50 passing touchdowns and 5,000 passing yards and he is arguably the MVP this season. When these teams first met back in Week 6, The Wizard worked his magic in Foxboro for 352 passing yards and four touchdowns narrowly missing the upset 43-40. He is a phenomenal option and worthy of his price tag.
Running Back – Spencer Ware has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury, last taking the field in Week 14. He went through full practices this week and is not on the final injury report. The only issue is how much will he be used with the emergence of Damien Williams who has done everything asked of him and found the end zone seven times over the last five games (5 rushing, 2 receiving). Williams is appropriately priced as the #6 player on DraftKings and #7 on FanDuel for his matchup against the #21 rushing DVOA defense who is allowing 4.9 yards per carry as the fourth highest this season.
Wide Receiver – Sammy Watkins looked great in his first game back since reaggravating an injury in Week 11 and he was on the field for 81 snaps seeing 8 targets for 6/62/0 and his price tag of $5,400 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel certainly won’t break the bank.
Tyreek Hill capped an outstanding season with 137 targets #13 for 87 receptions #15, 1,479 yards #4 and 12 touchdowns #4 with the most receptions of 20+ yards at an eye-popping 27… oh he also had 22 carries for 151 yards and a touchdown and had a punt return touchdown. Yeah, you know what to do.
Tight End – Travis Kelce was right there this season with Tyreek Hill and he turned his 150 targets into 103 receptions #10 and 1,336 receiving yards #11, with 18 20+ yard receptions and 10 receiving touchdowns both ranking #6 in the league. The is nothing more to add…
Defense/Special Teams – Strange things can happen, particularly in cold weather, but just know that the Patriots ceded only 21 sacks this year which is the third lowest in the league and their 18 combined turnovers was seventh lowest.
Keep in mind that the most we can lose for points allowed is four fantasy points and all it takes is one lucky return touchdown to negate that and pop up the leaderboard.
| Points Allowed Tier | FPs |
| Points Allowed 0 | 10 |
| Points Allowed 1-6 | 7 |
| Points Allowed 7-13 | 4 |
| Points Allowed 14-20 | 1 |
| Points Allowed 21-27 | 0 |
| Points Allowed 28-34 | -1 |
| Points Allowed 35+ | -4 |
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Strategy – with all of the available projected points, this should be a fun game and will support both “cash” game contests (H2H, 3-mans, double and triple-ups, etc.) as well as tournaments. A strong core on DraftKings will be to work in both quarterbacks along with James White and Damien Williams. On FanDuel it is more challenging and if you use both quarterbacks, then the kickers will also be prominently involved… for tournaments a nice strategy of mixing and matching various game scenarios/outcomes is the savvy approach for a chance to see your name in lights.
Here is the list of players in this game that scored multiple touchdowns at least one time this season: James White, Sony Michel, James Devlin, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams and Sammy Watkins.
Single Game Ranking (considering projected production, pricing and popularity)
- Tom Brady (with the price discount and big game experience, I am comfortable with him as my top play)
- Patrick Mahomes (it is hard to go wrong with the Wizard Wunderkind)
- James White (love his usage in the short passing game and heck, last week the Burkhead touchdown could have easily been White’s)
- Damien Williams (I am not overly worried about Spencer Ware and think this is a fair price point even if were does syphon 20% of the running back production)
- Sony Michel (facing the #32 DVOA rushing defense this week and he had three touchdowns last weekend, Bill Belichick is going to have to give his rookie first round selection strong consideration this week, particularly if the weather gets really nasty)
- Travis Kelce (while the discount from Tyreek Hill is more pronounced on FanDuel, I still give him the slightest edge on DraftKings as well)
- Tyreek Hill (price and cold weather keep him below the running backs)
- Sammy Watkins (nice salary savings and perhaps he is a tad overlooked after missing the bulk of the season – he was in on 81 snaps last week for what its worth)
- Harrison Butker (the second year man was solid making 24 of 27 FGA and he had a league leading 65 PATs on 69 attempts)
- Stephen Gotkowski (he is no stranger to big games after 13 years with the Patriots and he was 27 of 32 on FGAs and 49 of 50 for his PATs)
- Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett (we are playing for a touchdown here)
- Spencer Ware and Chris Conley (bump Ware ahead of the kickers if you think he will get at least one-third of the backfield production for Kansas City)
- Rex Burkhead, James Develin and Cordarrelle Patterson (lottery ticket time for the Patriots)
- Demetrius Harris, Demarcus Robinson, Darrel Williams (keep an eye on that inactive list)
- New England D/ST (even though they are on the road, they get the edge for big game experience in a matchup with a quarterback making his 19th career start)
- Kansas City D/ST (remember, Tyreek Hill should be returning punts and since this is a big game, potentially kickoff as well)
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
