NFL Prime Time – Divsional Sunday Night Football (FREE)

Greetings Gamers!  We wind down the Divisional Round with the reigning Super Bowl Champions heading into New Orleans as 8 point underdogs.  Can the Eagles magical post season run continue?

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Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints -8.0 / 50.5

Philadelphia Eagles 21.3 implied points

Quarterback – the Nick Foles legend continues and this week the speculation from pundits has turned to “Which guy should the Eagles tab as their franchise quarterback and which teams would be willing to trade for the runner-up?”  Now we do not need to be concerned about that, but my how quickly things can change.

Speaking of things that have changed, don’t look now, but the former “Coors Field of the NFL” aka Superdome is no longer quite the automatic gimme that it was in previous seasons as the Saints have dramatically improved on defense over the last two years. This chart details their points allowed over the last five seasons:

Year Home Road Total
2014 27.8 25.2 26.5
2015 31.6 27.9 29.8
2016 29.5 27.2 28.4
2017 22.9 19.4 21.2
2018 25.6 18.5 22.1

so as we can see things are down by well over a touchdown during this time frame and the Saints have the #3 rushing DVOA this season and a not completely terrible #20 passing DVOA which as a reminder is an efficiency rating from Football Outsiders that considers how a team performs against the normalized league data in similar situations aka it is an effort to neutralize volume and compare like situations across the board.

Since we know that Philadelphia has a mediocre run game at best and will likely be forced to pass early and often courtesy of their own defensive shortcomings in the secondary, this is a nice spot for Foles and on the full-slate he is definitely “cash game” viable for his reasonable price point.

 

Running Back – last week in Chicago it looked like Wendell Smallwood was going to be the lead back as he received the majority of the touches into the second quarter and had 35 combined yards, though interceptions ended two of the drives early.  From that point on it was 14-year veteran Darren Sproles who saw most of the backfield touches and while his 13/21/0 on the ground and 3 targets for 2/14/0 are not inspiring and not much more that what Smallwood did 8/20/0 rushing and 3 targets for 2/20/0 receiving – it was good to see the dichotomy and if we want to continue extrapolating to this weekend, it looks like Sproles should get first crack.

Both of these players are viable options on the single game slate as well as for some salary relief and differentiation on the full-slate this weekend.  Keep in mind that Sproles injured his hamstring in Week 1 and also suffered a setback during recovery that kept him off the field until Week 13.  Upon his return, Sproles saw increased snaps 9, 22, 20, 38 and 27 culminating in a 38 to 28 advantage last Sunday over Smallwood.

Wide Receiver – it makes sense that the Eagles will take to the air (cwidt) early in this contest, so let’s take a gander at the target distribution since Foles took the helm:

Player Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 WC Total
Zach Ertz 7 16 4 7 34
Alshon Jeffery 8 5 5 9 27
Golden Tate 5 3 6 8 22
Nelson Agholor 2 7 6 6 21
Darren Sproles 4 6 3 3 16
Wendell Smallwood 2 4 4 3 13
Dallas Goedert 2 3 3 4 12
Josh Adams 1 1 3 0 5
Jordan Matthews 0 3 0 0 3

it is not a surprise that Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery lead the way, but I was a little caught off guard to see Golden Tate and Nelson Agholor so tightly packed in a quartet with the other “as expected” pair in Philadelphia’s last two “must win” games.

With Foles proclivity for spreading things out and taking whatever the defense will give him as evidenced by a 70.6% completion rate over his five regular season appearances plus last week’s playoff game – whichever pass catchers find the end zone will be the “best” play aka we can mix and match freely in all formats in the hopes of hitting on the lucky combination.

 

Tight End – O.J. Howard and Ian Thomas bookended the season as the only two tight ends to tally more than 50 yards receiving against the Saints in Week 1 and Week 17 respectively.  On the season the “best” tight ends New Orleans faced were Jordan Reed and Austin Hooper… oh yeah and of course in Week 11 they did hold Zach Ertz to a season low 2 receptions for 15 yards.

The question is do you think the Saints will be able to do that again against a Philly squad with their back against the wall and nothing to lose?  For added incentive, just be aware that Ertz was second in the league for receptions this season behind only WR Michael Thomas’ 120 as he set the tight end single season record for catches with 156 targets going for 116/1,163/8.  Dallas Goedert is also in the mix as a potential lottery ticket and last week he paid off his supporters with four targets for 2/20/1 – BOOM!

Defense/Special Teams – Drew Brees was sacked only 17 times this season and he threw a career low 5 interceptions (Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill combined for the other two picks and three sacks allowed by the Saints).  Heck, Brees compiled the sixth best ever single season passer rating with a gaudy 115.1 making it hard to see the Eagles as a viable play this week other than in the hopes of a return touchdown and the chances of that are likely slim to none with New Orleans allowing just one punt return and one kickoff return for touchdowns since the beginning of the 2012 season (that is 7 years dear reader) and at best Brees may throw one pick if his form holds true.

 

New Orleans Saints 29.3 implied points

Quarterback – this is a fine spot for Drew Brees who will be matched up with the #23 ranked DVOA passing defense and he has already seen this squad once before this season back in Week 11 when he exploited the secondary on his way to a 22 for 30 262 yard day with four touchdowns and no sacks or interceptions.  While that is the high-watermark, 300 and 3 is squarely in play.

 

Running Back – in that Week 11 48-7 thrashing, the Eagles did not do themselves any favors as QB Carson Wentz had a trio of interceptions.  Mark Ingram was outstanding with 16/103/2 on the ground and while he is a capable receiver, he did not see a target in this game.  Alvin Kamara was equally sublime with 13/71/0 rushing and going for a 37 yard touchdown on his only receiving target.

Of course Kamara is the desired play, but the nearly 50% price discount to Ingram on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the single game contest keep both players in the mix.

 

Wide Receiver – Michael Thomas lead the league with 120 receptions hauling in a jaw-dropping 85% of his targets.  During the Week 11 matchup, the Eagles focused on Thomas “holding” him to four targets, naturally he caught them all for 92 yards and a score.  On the other side of the field in that game, rookie Tre’Quan Smith went wild on 13 targets with 10/157/1, though that is no indication of what may happen this Sunday because Ted Ginn Jr. is back from injury having returned in Week 16 seeing 8 targets and then being held out Week 17 as a precaution.

Smith was out in Week 12 with an injury, but over the last four games of the season with Drew Brees under center, he had 1, 4, 1 and 1 targets.  Yes, he can always score a touchdown, but keep your expectations in check and give the 12-year veteran Ginn a shot on a couple lineups.

 

Tight End – this is why Ben Watson rejoined the Saints for a second tour, he wanted to make another playoff run.  New Orleans has been keeping him out of harm’s way for most of the season and we know he has the trust of Brees.  There is a good chance that undrafted rookie Dan Arnold will be inactive and Josh Hill is a favorable pivot away from Watson if you are looking for some additional differentiation.  In either case, we are hoping for a red zone touchdown and only four of Brees’ 32 touchdown passes went to the position this year.

Defense/Special Teams – Philadelphia allowed 40 sacks this season which was #20 on the season and New Orleans was #5 with 49 and they got to Wentz three times in the last meeting.  The Saints were #13 with 24 combined takeaways and the Eagles were #12 with 23 turnovers.  This unit is in play for all formats this weekend.

Awesemo’s Showdown Rankings provide an additional look at how to value the player pool from Alex himself >>> premium members click here

 

Strategy – this game sets up well for both “cash games” and tournaments. The core trio for “cash” games on both DraftKings and FanDuel will be to start with Brees, Foles and Kamara and then on DraftKings you can round out things with the Saints D/ST and/or a kicker and on FanDuel going with a tight end not named Zach Ertz will help provide some wiggle room.  For tournaments, anything goes as there are players on both teams that could fine their way into the end zone multiple times.

Strategy – this game sets up well for both “cash games” and tournaments. The core trio for “cash” games on both DraftKings and FanDuel will be to start with Brees, Foles and Kamara and then on DraftKings you can round out things with the Saints D/ST and/or a kicker and on FanDuel going with a tight end not named Zach Ertz will help provide some wiggle room.  For tournaments, anything goes as there are players on both teams that could fine their way into the end zone multiple times.

Single Game Ranking (considering projected production, pricing and popularity)

  1. Drew Brees (he should be good for at least two touchdowns and 300/3 is in play with his player prop sitting at 290.5 as of Friday morning)
  2. Nick Foles (will the mojo be travelling with him to NOLA? His player prop is at 271.5 yards and multiple touchdowns are a distinct possibility)
  3. Alvin Kamara (clearly the best running back in this game and arguably a top two on the full-slate depending on the actual health of Todd Gurley – we are paying full price, but he is amazing and can score from anywhere on the field – player props 55.5 rushing yards, 5.0 / 38.5 and +500 for first score )
  4. Saints D/ST (DraftKings where salary relief is key if we are fitting in the three previously listed players)
  5. Mark Ingram (the discount to Kamara is significant enough on both DraftKings and FanDuel that he is among our “core” plays – in 12 games this season he averaged 68 combined yards per game which would have put him just over 1,000 if he played a full season and he had 7 touchdowns to boot which would have had him approaching 10 on the full season – just for perspective – player prop 42.5 rushing yards)
  6. Michael Thomas (the price is the only thing pushing him down the list – well and the risk of seeing only four targets again as he did in the last matchup – FWIW his player prop is 6.5 / 84.5)
  7. Zach Ertz (it is harder to divine which Eagles players will be getting the potential touchdowns and we may only see 2-3 and with Foles willing to go to anyone, it is hard to envision a Philly option being ranked higher – player prop 6.0 / 60.5)
  8. Darren Sproles (he is reasonably priced, but if you are a believer and we think his popularity will be somewhat reasonable, making a stand with him as a “core” play would move him up with the Saints D/ST for me personally)
  9. Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Golden Tate (if you don’t have a strong preference, allow price to be your guide – player props Jeffery 5 / 64.5, Agholor 3.5 / 38.5, Tate 3.5 / 40.5)
  10. Ted Ginn Jr (hoping he is another guy overlooked by The Masses – well as much as one can be on a single game slate)
  11. Wendell Smallwood (will probably see about 40% of the running back snaps, but the high-leverage situations are likely to go to Sproles)
  12. Will Lutz (hit 52 of 53 PATs on the second most in the league behind only Harrison Butker of Kansas City and he had the #3 percentage for any kicker with at least 30 FGAs going 28 of 30 for 93.3 with 11 of 12 from 40-49 and 2 of 3 from 50+)
  13. Jake Elliott (the second year man out of Memphis is 31 of 33 on PATs and 26 of 31 for field goals with multiple field goal attempts in four of his last six games regular season games nailed his only FGA and PAT attempts in Chicago last week)
  14. Ben Watson, Tre’Quan Smith, Josh Hill (we have reached the touchdown hunting section of the recommended plays)
  15. Dallas Goedert, Jordan Matthews and Josh Adams (my preferred order as we begin to run out of viable options)
  16. Zach Line, Taysom Hill, Keith Kirkwood, Austin Carr, Tommylee Lewis (lottery tickets, we know that Line and Hill will at least be active and could see some red zone action – at least one of the other three will be inactive so pay attention)
  17. Boston Scott (potential kick returns for Philly, with Sproles likely handling punt return duty)
  18. Philadelphia D/ST (Yikes, this is the worst ranking I have ever given a D/ST, the chance of sacks and turnovers is preposterously low and the likelihood of a negative fantasy score for points allowed is enough that I am listing the kick returner above this unit)

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac

 

 

 

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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