Greetings, Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Sunday Night slate between the 49ers and Seahawks, with thoughts on Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Raheem Mostert and more for your NFL DFS lineups!
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Check out the Sunday’s NFL Live Before Lock at 7:30 p.m. EST with Your Ol’ Pal EMac and Sal Vetri as they break down tonight’s matchup for Single Game contests.
NFL DFS Picks: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks -3.0/45.5
This is the perfect game for the Week 17 night cap. If San Francisco wins, they will be the top seed in the NFC. If they lose then they are a fifth seed on the road Wild Card weekend. On the other hand, Seattle could get the top seed with a victory and New Orleans and Green Bay losses.
Realistically, a win would land them with the third seed, but at home against a wild card team in the first round.
San Francisco 49ers NFL DFS Picks
24.25 implied points
The Seahawks are no longer the Legion of Boom, but they have been adequate as a passing defense. However, they are not bringing much pressure with the second-worst adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders. They have a bend-don’t-break approach and have allowed only four opposing quarterbacks to top 300 yards this season. Of course, Matt Schaub dropped 460 on them in a spot start and Jameis Winston got there in an overtime game.
On the week, Jimmy Garoppolo checks in as the QB12-17 depending on your site of choice and how backups are being projected. He has the fourth-most passing touchdowns in the league with 27, though he has had only one in three of his last four games.
The running back carousel continues and now Matt Breida is the latest casualty with no offensive snaps last weekend. It has mostly been Raheem Mostert and then Tevin Coleman as his backup. The running backs have not been very involved in the passing game this season and last weekend, it was Kyle Juszczyk with two targets and Mostert with one. Over the last four games Mostert and Juszczyk each have seven, Breida has three, Coleman two and Jeff Wilson one.
In my opinion, Mostert is still a core play and Coleman is a differentiation option tonight.
This is the Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders show and they have had 17 and 19 targets respectively over the last three games. Kendrick Bourne is the third option and he is the only other receiver to have a target since Week 11. Let the price, popularity and personal preference guide your decisions between Samuel and Sanders with Bourne only in play as a salary saver.
George Kittle is the main target in the 49ers passing game and he has seen eight, 17 and eight in his last three appearances. Even missing two games, he leads the team in targets, receptions, yardage and receiving touchdowns. He is very much in consideration as a Captain/MVP tonight and he has the best chance of reaching pay dirt. Ross Dwelley had seen 20 snaps over the last five games and Levine Toilolo had 19 (all in the last two). During this stretch, they have one target, which went to Dwelley last week.
In their last six games, Seattle has suffered 20 sacks including three outings of at least five. They have five interceptions and six fumbles in this stretch as well. The 49ers are fifth in the league with 47 sacks and fifth with 27 combined turnovers, so they are certainly in play.
Seattle Seahawks NFL DFS Picks
21.25 implied points
Russell Wilson is a fringe top-five quarterback this week. It will be interesting to see how quickly head coach Pete Carroll turns to him to carry the water. Over the last three weeks, San Francisco has allowed Jared Goff 323 yards, Matt Ryan 210 and Drew Brees 349 and five touchdowns, a dramatic departure from most of the season.
They still have the best adjusted sack rate and the second overall DVOA, but we know that Wilson is capping off yet another epic season.
With Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise all out for the season, it is going to be up to Seattle’s field general to lead them to a home upset victory. Wilson is very much in play as the Captain/MVP tonight.
It is a great story having Marshawn Lynch back in the fold, but what kind of shape is he in after playing just six games last season and all but officially retiring this year? Robert Turbin is another former Seahawk that was signed this week. He was last with Seattle in 2014. During his last three active years he saw action in 23 games for the Colts with 74 carries 227 yards and eight touchdowns. Like Lynch, he too has not played a down this season.
All indications are that rookie sixth-rounder Travis Homer will get the first crack at the workload. His only game action has come in the last two weeks, so we really have no idea what to expect and he is appropriately priced.
Tyler Lockett has been wildly disappointing this season as the heir apparent to Doug Baldwin. He has struggled being the focus of opposing secondaries and despite 40% more targets than last season he has three less touchdowns and only 41 more yards. We can’t even count on Russell Wilson to force him the ball as he has one touchdown in the last six weeks and was held without a reception in Week 13 on three targets. That said, he is still the best receiver for the Seahawks, but we should have appropriate expectations.
Rookie D.K. Metcalf has been solid and outsnapping Lockett the last two weeks and in three of the last five. Sadly, in his last two games, he has seen one and four targets. He has the ability to score from anywhere on the field and it just takes one timely lapse by the defense and he could be gone.
David Moore and Malik Turner are the other two options now that Josh Gordon is indefinitely suspended yet again. Turner is out with a concussion so Moore should be in line for two or three targets and is a discounted differentiation play.
Jacob Hollister has a stranglehold on the tight end position with every target since Week 10 and only Luke Willson has also seen snaps at the position since Week 6.
San Francisco has allowed multiple sacks in five of the last six weeks, but we should temper expectations as Seattle has the third-fewest sacks this year with only 26. That said, their 32 takeaways marks the second-best figure in the league. The best weapon is the crowd which can cause false starts, which in turn can force Garoppolo and company into passing situations.
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
NOTABLE INACTIVES: Jeff Wilson, Malik Turner, Luke Willson
NFL DFS Top 10
- Russell Wilson: I have to put him here.
- George Kittle: he was my recommended Captain/MVP in the ‘Niners last game. He is worthy of that mantle again tonight.
- Raheem Mostert: this is not a lockdown situation, but he should get the edge in a 60/40 split with Tevin Coleman.
- Jimmy Garoppolo: it caught me off guard when I realized his 27 touchdowns are behind only Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson.
- Tevin Coleman: the savings will be needed tonight and he has had his turn as the lead back in the rotation at times this season.
- Robbie Gould and Jason Myers: this could be a low-scoring game, the nod goes to Myers for me, but I do love NFL DFS darling Robbie Gould.
- Travis Homer: the sites have priced him appropriately, the Seattle backfield is a major question mark right now.
- DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett: the discount for Metcalf has this duo tied in my rankings.
- Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders: price and target opportunities are darn near equal, let popularity and personal preference be your tiebreaker.
- San Francisco D/ST: they are continuing to get more guys healthy. You know Richard Sherman is going to do everything in his power to will an interception.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Secondary Plays
- Marshawn Lynch: dammit, emotions and the memory of The Beastquake have me hoping for a couple of red zone opportunities.
- Seattle D/ST: they are a bunch of ball hawks (pun intended).
- Kendrick Bourne: he should see 2-5 targets.
- David Moore: should see 2-3 targets with Malik Turner (concussion) sidelined.
- Kyle Juszczyk: while he only has three carries on the year, he does get a couple of targets every week.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Lottery Ticket
- Matt Breida: only saw special teams work last week, he is an in-game injury away from being the lead back.
- Robert Turbin: he will be in as soon as Lynch has a hamstring tug or Homer plays like a rookie.
- Ross Dwelley, Levin Toilo, Luke Willson: I am setting the line at 2.5 combined targets for this trio. Take the under.
- Jaron Brown: this might be a good time to write those holiday thank you notes.
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Good Luck in tonight’s Showdown Slate NFL DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
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