Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Thursday Night Football slate between the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars, with thoughts on Gardner Minshew, Ryan Fitzpatrick and more NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.
Don’t forget to check out the Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Live Before Lock Show with Alex “Awesemo” Baker and Kyle Dvorchak at 7:20 p.m. ET. Every single-game slate we’ll have a live before lock show for you for the 2020 season.
NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night Football Dolphins at Jaguars (-3.0), O/U 48.0
The real matchup tonight is of course the super ‘stache of Gardner Minshew and the bushy beard of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Keep in mind that under the current rules in Florida, the Jaguars are allowed to have fans up to 25% of the capacity of their stadium. So far this season, Jacksonville is averaging 60.5 plays per game, which is 27th, and Miami is 17th with 65.0 per game. They are essentially inverted for opponent plays allowed at 64.0 for the Jaguars and 61.0 for the Dolphins.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
The Dolphins are winless through two weeks, but they at least have kept things respectable against the Patriots in Foxboro and then last week almost coming back at home against Buffalo. This is a decent matchup for Fitzpatrick as the Jaguars gave up 363 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Week 1 to Philip Rivers, and a very efficient 239 yards and four touchdowns to Ryan Tannehill last Sunday. Fitzpatrick is a fringe QB10 this week in most projection systems, and we have already seen him with 77 attempts as the Dolphins running game has struggled a bit. Keep in mind that rookie Tua Tagovailoa is always going to be lurking, but it is hard to see him getting any action without preseason games. That means his last in-game action was back in mid-November of last year when he suffered a season-ending hip injury.
Running Back
Offseason acquisitions Matt Breida and Jordan Howard have combined for 38% and 32% of the snaps in the first two weeks compared to Myles Gaskin who has 63% and 65%. It should be noted however that Breida (three) and Howard (five) have more red zone looks than Gaskin, who got his first two last week.
Through the first two tilts, Gaskin has 11 of the 16 running back targets. He has been effective on the ground with 16 carries for 86 yards, but so has Breida with 12 for 59, and it is Howard with the touchdowns (two). On FanDuel this trio is priced appropriately proportional. However, on DraftKings things get interesting with Gaskin ($7,200) leading the way over Howard ($4,800) and the seemingly underpriced Breida ($1,800).
The Dolphins have been trailing for most of their first two games, so there is always the chance that things normalize, though that will look like a seismic shift to those not aware that this scenario is in play. Essentially what we have is a divided workload and just a two-game sample size in the magic eight-ball. Consensus full-PPR have Gaskin as a fringe RB25 with Brieda and Howard both well outside the top 50 for the full slate.
Wide Receiver
Through two games Jacksonville is allowing 399.5 yards per outing with 294.0 passing and 105.5 rushing, which are 10th, third and 23rd, respectively. It would appear that DeVante Parker (hamstring) is healthy after going from 23 (37%) of the snaps to 66 (88%). This directly impacted Jakeem Grant, who dropped from 33 (53%) to 10 (13%). Preston Williams (56, 90% to 61, 81%) and Isaiah Ford (46, 74% to 48, 64%) were mostly unchanged.
Ford is somewhat intriguing, as he is leading the team in targets with 13, posting nine last week. It is highly unlikely he will pace the rest of the wide receiver core in opportunities, but it does put him squarely in play on the single-game slate. Parker, of course, is arguably the most talented option, but for whatever reason various iterations of the Miami decisionmakers seem to loathe giving him opportunities. Williams looks solid after last season’s ACL injury, and Grant has his fortunes inversely correlated with those of Parker.
Fitzpatrick does not generally play favorites, particularly in those games when he goes off, so we can mix and match these options as it suits our roster construction.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki actually leads the team in targets with 16, which is three more than Ford and four more than Parker and Williams. More importantly, fellow tight end Adam Shaheen has seen just two. Gesicki has four red zone looks, which is second on the squad. Though he has played on just over 60% of the snaps, he is heavily involved when on the field.
Defense/Special Teams
Last year the Dolphins had just 16 takeaways, which was the third fewest in the league. Their 23 sacks were the lowest by five. This is not a great squad. This year they have three already, and the Jaguars have allowed six thus far, so not all hope is lost. As with most D/STs, we really need a return touchdown for this unit to be a difference maker tonight.
Ben’s Bet of the Day
Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day’s betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
Jacksonville: 25.5
Quarterback
Last season, Minshew saw the field right away after Nick Foles was injured in the first game. Ultimately Foles returned as the starting quarterback for Weeks 11 and 12, but lost the job outright to Minshew, who started the remainder of the season. The second-year man is not lacking swagger, and most projection systems have Minshew in the QB8-12 range for the full slate. Alex “Awesemo” Baker is not as convinced, ranking him 15th on the Big Board. However, for the single-game slate, he does come in as the highest-projected scorer on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Running Back
Quick, name the Jaguars starting running back. It is undrafted rookie James Robinson. Currently he has cornered the backfield production with 164 of the 171 rushing yards and 46 of the 74 receiving yards tallied by the position. While the $14,000 price tag may have some gamers shying away on FanDuel, where he is third on the list, do not let that dissuade you from making him a key part of your player pool.
For the season, Miami is allowing just over 100 rushing yards and 25 passing yards to opposing running backs. Keep in mind that does not count the 15 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns posted by Cam Newton in the season opener.
Chris Thompson is the change-of-pace back, and while he is a dynamic player, he has been outsnapped 72 to 43 by Robinson. Bruce Miller is the only other option of note, but he has played only 25 total snaps, seeing one target in each of the first two contests.
Editors Note:
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Wide Receiver
D.J. Chark is dealing with a chest injury, but he did practice on Monday and Tuesday, albeit in a limited fashion. Wednesday he did not participate, so we will want to keep an eye on this situation. D.J. Chark is officially out. Last week Keelan Cole and Chris Conley led the team in targets with seven each, and Chark and rookie Laviska Shenault chipped in four apiece.
With Chark ailing, it has been the veteran Cole stepping up. Second-round rookie Shenault has been active with seven rushing attempts for 47 yards to go along with his eight targets for six catches, 72 yards and a touchdown. Things will be pretty spread out here, though if Chark is out or limited, it will boost the profile of the other three options.
Tight End
Tyler Eifert is leading the team with 58% of the snaps, followed by James O’Shaughnessy (44%) and Ben Ellefson (22%). Eifert has seen seven targets for four catches, 44 yards and a touchdown and O’Shaughnessy five catches for 40 yards. There is not really much to see here, and we are just touchdown hunting over volume.
Defense/Special Teams
Last week Miami gave up four sacks with no turnovers to Buffalo. In the opener, they allowed one sack and three picks up in Foxboro. After 47 sacks last year, the Jaguars are not living up to their Sacksonville moniker, with only a pair to show for their efforts over the first two games.
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Thursday Night Football Showdown + Single Game Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller. Tonight should be a lot of fun, as most of the viable fantasy options are players the masses have not heard of outside of the two quarterbacks.
EMac’s Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Notable Inactives: D.J. Chark WR, Josh Lambo K, Lynn Bowden WR
Thursday Night Football Top 10
- Gardner Minshew: He gets the slight edge over Fitzpatrick as the home quarterback (25% fan capacity allowed).
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: There is definitely an argument that the well-travelled veteran deserves the top honor with the nearly 10% discount to his counterpart. Let popularity and personal preference be your guide.
- James Robinson: We certainly are paying top dollar for the rookie, but we have seen that he should command most of the opportunities in the Jaguars backfield.
- Laviska Shenault: The rookie is a bargain on FanDuel at $7,500, and he is appropriately priced on DraftKings at $6,600.
- Mike Gesicki: Top red zone passing option, and he knows how to move the chains between the 20s.
- DeVante Parker: It looks like the hamstring is good to go. On FanDuel I prefer Williams with the $4,000 savings.
- Isaiah Ford: We are getting an absolute steal on DraftKings for a slot receiver at $4,500 in full-PPR. Again, on FanDuel I would look to Williams even for $1,000 more.
- Myles Gaskin: He is fairly priced. There is downside risk with Breida and Howard also lurking.
- Keelan Cole: So far we have seen Minshew taking what the defense is giving him, and we know Cole is healthy.
- Jason Sanders/Brandon Wright:Â Josh Lambo was placed on the injured reserve, so Wright gets the nod. The rookie undrafted free agent converted 32 of 54 59.3% going in his career at Georgia State, he was 12 of 18 66.7% in his senior year.
Thursday Night Football Secondary Plays
D.J. Chark: This is all about risk tolerance. If Chark were healthy, he would be ranked fourth or fifth. When I am paying for the third/fourth-most expensive option on the slate, I want 1) full health and 2) not sharing so many of the targets. If he is active, he will be in less than 10% of my lineups. As of this morning, in the Flex spot he is projected at 39.3% on DraftKings and 27.1% on FanDuel.D.J. Chark is officially out.- Matt Breida: He is a steal at $1,800 on DraftKings and fair at $7,000 on FanDuel. I do not really want him in the same lineup as Gaskin on FanDuel, but I am OK with it on DraftKings.
- Chris Thompson: The volume has not been there, but an in-game injury or miscue by Robinson could open up a “hot hand” scenario.
- Tyler Eifert/James O’Shaughnessy: The DraftKings pricing disparity makes choosing O’Shaughnessy at $1,600 very easy over Eifert at $5,800. They are only separated by $1,100 on FanDuel.
- Miami and Jacksonville D/STs: Not very exciting, but they will be on the field.
Lottery Tickets
- Chris Conley: If Chark is inactive, move him to the top of the Secondary Plays section.
- Jakeem Grant: With Parker healthy he is relegated to a WR4/5 role and kick return duty.
- Jordan Howard: He has scored in each of his first two games but has only 11 yards and two touchdowns with zero targets.
- Collin Johnson: Four targets, one catch for 14 yards.
- Patrick Laird: Buried on the depth chart.
Lynn Bowden: The Raiders traded him to Miami just before the season after he wore out his welcome in under two months.- Ben Ellefson, Durham Smythe, Adam Shaheen, Chandler Cox, Dare Ogunbowale: A couple will probably be inactive. For those that are not, there is not much value here.
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