Greetings Gamers! Wildcard Weekend has arrived, and we can continue getting our NFL DFS action for a couple more slates. While this is a rematch from the regular season, that tilt was waaaaaay back in Week 3 which is a lifetime ago for NFL DFS.
Enjoy a special one week free of Awesemo Premium with promo code PRIMETIME. Join now and gain access to all of the projections, rankings, and expected ownership percentages you need to get ahead of The Masses in DFS NFL, NBA, NHL, PGA and more. This LIMITED OFFER NOW INCLUDES the FantasyCruncher Add-on as part of the one week free trial.
Free Full Slate analysis can be found here Wildcard Weekend Half Million Dollar Baller Analysis
FREE Sunday Night Prime Time Single Game Breakdown: PHI at CHI
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys -2.0 / 43.0
Seattle Seahawks 20.5 implied points
Quarterback – this is going to be an interesting matchup as the Seahawks strategy has been to “establish the run” which is an archaic term in the current pass-happy NFL environment, however, being “contrarian” has worked in their favor – well along with Russell Wilson having a phenomenally efficient season.
Seattle was the only team in the league that ran more often than they passed… think about that for a moment. On 52.8% of their plays they rushed, the next closest team was the Tennessee Titans at 48.4% and Dallas was back in 10th at 43.3%.
From a Time of Possession perspective, Seattle was #6 at 31:18 and Dallas was #8 with 30:44 – this is all important to understand this game will likely not be voluminous when it comes to the number of plays and something must give with the Seahawks allowing the 3rd fewest opponent plays per game at 59.7 and the Cowboys are #11 at 61.3 – now that we have that established, let’s get back to the analysis of Wilson.
Dallas checks in with the #4 rushing DVOA and the #12 passing DVOA per Football Outsiders. Russell Wilson is all about the passing touchdowns as he was QB28 this season with 218 passing yards per game, but he was #3 with 35 touchdowns (he also chipped in 67/376/0 on the ground and though that is the second lowest total of his career, it is still just over 20 yards aka two fantasy points per game).
Running Back – Seattle lead the league with 160.0 rushing yards per game and they were #11 with 16 rushing touchdowns (just to highlight that while the running game moves the ball and keeps the clock running, the Seahawks still lean on Wilson and the passing game when they are within sight of the end zone.
Chris Carson is the clear lead back and he generally is on the field for 50-55% of the snaps and he lead the team in all the main rushing categories with 247/1,151/9 and chipped in 20/163/0 through the air on 24 targets. Mike Davis is the main backup and he was on the field for about 40% of the snaps over the last month and on the year he was the #2 guy in the rushing categories with 112/514/4 and saw half of the running back targets converting his 42 into 34/214/1 on the year.
Rookie first round pick Rashaad Penny is a wildcard and it would seem that head coach Pete Carroll is unlikely to trust a rookie with only 180 snaps under his belt in a road playoff game. Just my opinion and full disclosure, I am a lifelong Seahawks fan.
Wide Receiver – on the season, quarterback Russell Wilson had only three games with 31+ pass attempts and three of those were 31 on the nose, so we should be concerned about the lack of potential receptions and yards available for fantasy production as the Las Vegas player props are currently set at 19.5 for completions and 235.5 for passing yards.
Doug Baldwin has been dinged up most of the season with a myriad of nagging injuries which caused him to miss three games and “play hurt” in several others. He does have a long history with Russell Wilson having played seven seasons together. A reasonable projection would be 6-8 targets 4-5 receptions around 60-70 yards and probably a 50/50 chance for a touchdown.
Tyler Lockett is intriguing as he has taken the next step and become a full fledged WR1 in the absence of Baldwin this season with 71 targets for 57/985/10 this season and I have seen several articles (ESPN/Ringer) mention that Wilson actually had a perfect passer rating on throws to the former Kansas State Wildcat. Lockett is also active in the return game and that could be another avenue for a scoring play if we get lucky.
David Moore and Jaron Brown each have five touchdowns this season, which does more to demonstrate that Russell Wilson does not play favorites than anything else.
Tight End – currently Nick Vannett and Ed Dickson are the two healthy tight ends with Dickson seeing more snaps, but being the better blocker though not as good of a receiver and Vannett adequate in both skills. On the season this duo each has a trio of touchdowns and two more were corralled by Will Dissly at the beginning of the season before he got hurt. So for those of you scoring at home, that is 8 of Wilson’s 35 aerial scores that have gone to this position – again, he doesn’t play favorites.
Defense/Special Teams – though this is no longer the Legion of Boom caliber defense and they will be on the road, we have to perk up when hearing that Dallas allowed the second most sacks this season with 56 all suffered by Dak Prescott. Seattle was #11 with 43 sacks and we should think they get at least a couple with the potential for up to five if the Cowboys self-destruct. Dallas was good at protecting the ball allowing the fifth fewest turnovers with 17 combined fumbles and interceptions.
Dallas Cowboys 22.5 implied points
Quarterback – on the season, Seattle was just above average against opposing signal-callers from a fantasy perspective and they tallied the #13 DVOA against the pass. Dak Prescott was #21 at 243 passing yards per game and he was #16 with 22 aerial touchdowns. Things started trending up after trading for WR Amari Cooper, however the volume is concerning. Yes, last weekend he had his second best game of the season with 387 passing yards, that was without the services of RB Ezekiel Elliott who was held out for the playoffs. Prescott’s other MONSTER game was in Week 14 against Philadelphia when he posted 455 passing yards with three touchdowns and another two on the ground on an astounding 99 snaps.
Including those games, he topped 30 passing attempts nine times this season, but the Las Vegas props tell a more realistic story with 238.5 passing yards on 21.5 completions. Do keep in mind he has a 19.5 rushing yard prop and for these short slates, every little opportunity for points does help.
Running Back – even sitting out the final game of the season, Ezekiel Elliott still won the 2018 rushing title by 127 yards. He had a 4.7 yard average and nearly 25% of his carries resulted in first downs. Additionally he set career highs across the board with 95 targets for 77/567/3 in the receiving game.
The Seahawks have struggled against the run and they have the #19 DVOA per Football Outsiders and their 4.8 yards allowed per carry ranks as the fifth highest. Elliott is the clear top play in all formats this weekend and he will also be the most popular in the single game contests.
Wide Receiver – Amari Cooper is the clear WR1 for the Cowboys and it is not even close. Seattle has done a good job of limiting big plays, but they still can be exploited if Cooper can get in the right matchup and the possibility of multiple touchdowns is in play, particularly when we consider the remaining cast of characters.
Cole Beasley is a possession receiver that has Prescott’s trust, but he does not have much big play ability. Michael Gallup has the big play opportunities, but he has not converted often this season – though it only takes one Discount Dandy to be a slate breaker and he is in the mix for those honors.
Tight End – second year man Blake Jarwin is coming off a career game seeing 8 targets for a wicked 7/119/3 line against the Giants. That represents 25% of his career targets and receptions, nearly 40% of his yards and all three of his touchdowns. Can he do it again? Well, naturally not to that extent – but he actually is probably the third option in the passing game behind Cooper and Elliott and he did have 7+ targets in three of the last four games – so he is absolutely worthy of considering in all formats if you are not able to get to one of the two marquee options at the position in Zach Ertz or Eric Ebron.
Defense/Special Teams – with Russell Wilson being sacked an astounding 51 times or on 10.7% of his dropbacks the Cowboys have to be considered here and their 39 sacks of opposing quarterbacks was #16 on the season.
Awesemo’s Showdown Rankings provide an additional look at how to value the player pool from Alex himself >>> premium members click here
Strategy – even though this is projected to be a lower scoring game than we are used to seeing, it should not be a surprise since we are in the post season now and most of the defenses still around are in the top half of the league or better.
We can project that the quarterbacks and RB1s will be where most of the scoring occurs, however, we still have to deal with the salary cap. On DraftKings a “cash game” build can use both quarterbacks and Ezekiel Elliott as the captain and then you can get creative with the kickers, defense and a RB2, TE or WR3 to fill out your roster. For FanDuel using Elliott as the “MVP” makes sense, though once you pair him with Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson your options are already limited which means we have our work cut out for us and it will be uber-important to build tournament lineups with a specific “game flow” outcome to maximize your roster construction synergy.
Single Game Ranking (considering projected production, pricing and popularity)
- Ezekiel Elliott (for all the reasons listed above, just know that he will likely be in the 80-85% popularity range)
- Russell Wilson (as Wilson goes, so go the Seahawks)
- Amari Cooper (it is possible for Cooper to have a good day and for Dak Prescott to still be mediocre)
- Chris Carson (he is the lead back and I am hoping the crowded Seattle backfield will scare off some of his supporters)
- Dak Prescott (making somewhat of a stand here, he will be on some of my lineups, but I believe the quartet listed above have a better chance at reaching their respective “ceiling” games)
- Tyler Lockett (I like the big play ability and think he has more of a realistic chance to score from farther out than Doug Baldwin who will be competing with more options for Wilson’s attention in the red zone)
- Sebastian Janikowski and Brett Maher (the salary relief is of course more pronounced on DraftKings, but this duo will also be very popular on FanDuel as they have a realistic chance of being the best scorers among the four figure crew)
- Doug Baldwin (as a Seahawks fan, he is one of my favorite all-time players, however, for the single game slates – this is where he shakes out when considering is price tag and potential production)
- Mike Davis (he will be on the field a fair amount and has shown that he is solid in all facets of the game)
- Blake Jarwin and Michael Gallup (Jarwin should at least put up a handful of points, but the upside definitely belongs to Gallup though we have yet to see sustained consistency from the Colorado State University rookie)
- Dallas D/ST (homefield and the proclivity for Wilson to get sacked multiple times)
- Seattle D/ST (not as fierce as in recent years, they can still bring the pressure and Dak Prescott is prone to make mistakes when behind and hurried)
- Nick Vannett and Ed Dickson (as documented above, Wilson doesn’t play favorites and while third year man Vannett is arguably the better receiver – Dickson sees a little more time as the better run blocker and he is still a capable option in the red zone)
- Rod Smith and Rashaad Penny (would need to get lucky and be on the field in the red zone or have their respective RB1 suffer an in-game injury)
- David Moore, Jaron Brown and Allen Hurns (wild card WR3/4 deep threats for their respective teams)
- Tavon Austin (returned in Week 17 after being out for half the season – may not be active, so be sure to confirm status)
- Darius Jackson (may return kicks, but unlikely to get offensive snaps)
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
