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NFL Prime Time – Week 10 Sunday Night Football (FREE)

Eric MacPherson

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Ben Rasa is back to give out his FREE NFL Picks against the spread, & discuss some NFL Odds and NFL lines heading into Week 6.

Week 10 Sunday Night Football

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Greetings Gamers!  We have another prime time game with a large set of shoes to fill after Thursday Night Football crushed all expectations with an amazing 73 combined points.  Let’s give this matchup a fair shake as we all have the same set of pieces to choose from.

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles -7.0 / 43.5

Dallas Cowboys 18.3 implied points

Quarterback – Dak Prescott topped 208 passing yards for the third time this season and he also had his third multi-touchdown game giving him a – yikes – total of 10 on the season through eight games.  He does have a decent rushing floor with 42/247/2, but this has not been a great season and he is not likely to surpass the mediocre totals of his first two campaigns (averaging 3,500 passing yards, 22.5 TDs, 7.5 INTs with 315 rushing yards and six ground scores each year).

Philadelphia is coming off a bye and they have allowed just seven aerial scores over their last six games (Bortles, Newton, Manning, Cousins, Mariota, Luck) and have a solid pass defense from an efficiency rating checking in with the #11 DVOA per Football Outsiders.

Even with the addition of Amari Cooper and head coach Jason Garrett on the hot seat after losing at home to the terrible Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football, it is hard to think there will be a great performance Sunday night from Prescott.

Running Back – Ezekiel Elliott will once again be wildly popular, though it must be highlighted that the Eagles have allowed just one running back to top 50 rushing yards this season (Saquon Barkley  in Week 6 with 130) and only three backs have more than 50 receiving yards (Barkley 9/99 in Week 6, Dion Lewis 9/66 in Week 4 and T.J. Yeldon 7/83).  At least Elliott should again garner 90%+ of the fantasy production from the backfield and there is still a decent chance he has 100+ combined yards – it will all come down to him finding the end zone for his night to be a true success.

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Wide Receiver – Amari Cooper got an early touchdown in his first appearance with his new team last week and he again is the highest projected option – which is not exactly bold praise when we consider that he is competing with Cole Beasely, Allen Hurns and Michael Gallup.

If the Cowboys decide to use Cooper out of the slot more this week in order to get him free, that will decrease the opportunities for Beasley.  Rookie Michael Gallup has shown flashes, but despite having a favorable snap count this season that has increased particularly over the last month, he still has not had many opportunities:

Cole Beasley 330 snaps, 47 targets – 36/366/2

Allen Hurns 330 snaps, 29 targets – 14/181/2

Michael Gallup 305 snaps, 28 targets – 13/241/1

The one bonus is that the Dallas tight end situation has just been awful without longtime stalwart Jason Witten.

Tight EndGeoff Swaim missed Monday’s game with a sprained MCL and he will be a game time decision on Sunday night at best.  In his abscense Blake Jarwin saw both targets to the position and he played 27 snaps to Dalton Schultz’ 24 and Rico Gathers’ 17.  There is not much to see here.

Defense/Special Teams – Dallas has been pretty stout with their run defense holding the #4 DVOA, though their pass defense does leave a lot to be desired checking in at #26.  The Eagles have allowed 3+ sacks in six of eight games and they have allowed the seventh most this season with 26 (3.25 per game) and the Cowboys have tallied a solid 23 of their own, so there is some potential here.  Just know that Philadelphia has allowed only 3 INTs on the season.

 

Philadelphia Eagles 25.3 implied points

Quarterback – Carson Wentz should only be stronger after a bye week that allowed him to gain more distance from his knee injury that curtailed last season and had him with a late start to game action this year.  This Dallas team can be exploited through the air with a #26 passing DVOA, though we must take not that they are allowing the fifth fewest yards at just 217.1 per game – a lot of this is a function of their offense only scoring 19.3 points per game which allows the opposition to get a lead and then run the ball.

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Over his last five games, Wentz has 12 passing touchdowns and is averaging 306.6 passing yards with his “worst” game being a 278 yard performance.  He now has Golden Tate in the fold and a bye week to get him up to speed in the offense.

Running Back – Darren Sproles suffered another setback and with Jay Ajayi on the shelf, we will again see a committee with Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement and now Josh Adams sneaking into the picture.

In the three games that Ajayi has been out we have the following snap counts and %s:

Player Week 6 Week 7 Week 8
Wendell Smallwood 44 / 62% 35 / 52% 31 / 50%
Corey Clement 26 / 37% 35 / 37% 13 / 21%
Josh Adams 0 / 0% 8 / 12% 18 / 29%

Smallwood continues to be the “main” back on all fronts, with Clement spelling him liberally and with Adams seeing 9/61/0 the last time the Eagles played, he is a dart throw for the single game contests.

Wide Receiver – the addition of Golden Tate via a trade with the Detroit Lions will likely result in a loss of opportunities for Nelson Agholor as he will likely cede his slot role to Tate and move to the outside.

Alshon Jeffery may lose a couple of looks, but he will also likely see less pressure with an accomplished receiver such as Tate now in the fold (he also had his best game of the season in Week 4 when the Lions faced the Cowboys corralling all eight targets for 8/132/2). This move will also likely render Jordan Matthews irrelevant, even for single game action.

Tight End – similar to Alshon Jeffery we can expect Zach Ertz to lose a look or two, but again it would make sense that the defenses will be less likely to focus on this duo with the addition of Tate.  While Dallas has been a middle-of-the-pack team against opposing tight ends, they have not really faced anyone of note other than Greg Olsen in Week 1 and Jordan Reed in Week 7.

Defense/Special Teams fire up this unit as the Cowboys have allowed 4+ sacks in half of their games this season including a combined 10 to Tennessee and Washington over their last two appearances sandwiched around their bye week.  The Eagles are averaging just over three sacks per game – though their measly four INTs have them with the fifth lowest total in the league.

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Summary – This is an important game for both teams who will be meeting again in a month.  The Eagles  (4-4) need a win to have a chance at closing the one game gap with Washington (5-3).  The Cowboys (3-5) would see their playoff hopes all but evaporate with a loss.

 

Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)

  1. Alshon Jeffery (since his first game in Week 4, he has had fewer than 8 targets just once – Week 8 at JAX – and he has had 7+ receptions in three of the five games. To be clear, the 1.5x salary modifier for the DraftKings Captain slot make Jeffery an appealing top option – on FanDuel where we do not have to worry about any salary premiums, just ownership, there is merit to rolling with Wentz or Elliott – and utilizing Jeffery in a regular roster slot.  The hope is that the addition of Golden Tate takes some of the pressure away from Jeffery and he can find the end zone in a game projecting to be bereft of touchdowns)
  2. Carson Wentz (he is the clear force behind the Philly offense and the Captain pricing modifier is going to make this a tough decision on DraftKings, over on FanDuel he will likely be the most popular MVP option – so keep that in mind as you build out your rosters)
  3. Ezekiel Elliott (this will be one of the tougher matchups he has faced, but the addition of Amari Cooper and his volume should keep him in strong consideration as one of the highest projected scoring options in the single game player pool)
  4. Zach Ertz (it remains to be seen how large of an impact the addition of Golden Tate will have on the Eagles defacto top receiving option to date – while he may lose some looks, we have to think the presence of another high-end threat will improve the quality of his opportunities)
  5. Golden Tate (hey, did you know that he is a new addition to the Eagles and has a whole bye week to get ready?! Shame on you if you didn’t, because it means you skipped right to this line.)
  6. Dak Prescott (on FanDuel with the half-PPR scoring, there is strong merit to move him ahead of Ertz and Tate, however, that will be the inclination for most people – we need to keep in mind that touchdowns are the biggest driver on FanDuel and that needs to be something worthy of long deliberation vs the likely higher popularity % from The Masses who will be rolling with Prescott who has been involved in just 12 total touchdowns this season).
  7. Amari Cooper (we are playing him in the hopes of a touchdown because to date, the volume just has not been there for the Dallas passing game)
  8. Wendell Smallwood (more gamers are likely to look to him on DraftKings as they search for some discounted options and he will stand out with his opportunity and very palatable $5,000 price tag – on FanDuel we don’t get quite the savings, but he does appear to be the best option for those priced between $7,500 to $9,000)
  9. Cole Beasley and Michael Gallup (Beasley gets the nod on DraftKings with the full-PPR, but the younger and more talented rookie Gallup has the edge on FanDuel with a higher “touchdown equity” and his 11 targets over the last two games are just one less than Beasley – the added allure of Gallup on DraftKings is that he carries just one-third of the price tag)
  10. Philadelphia D/ST (this seems like a game where the Cowboys and coach Jason Garrett are going to be pressing and that is when mistakes are made, we are hoping for a sack/strip/fumble sequence that will have us grinning from ear-to-ear)
  11. Jake Elliott (gets the slight boost kicking at home, though this is just his second season with the Eagles and while he is a perfect 18 for 18 on PATs, he has hit just 12 of 16 FGAs)
  12. Brett Maher (the rookie has multiple made field goals in five of eight games, the bonus of playing for a team that stagnates as it approaches the 30 yard line – he has been perfect on PATs with 14 of 14 under his belt)
  13. Corey Clement (gets about a third of the running back opportunities and has been returning punts and kicks with DeAndre Carter now a Texan – it takes a lucky red zone rotation that ends with a score or an in-game injury for him to have much relevance)
  14. Allen Hurns (while he did get a touchdown last week, he looks to be the most impacted by the addition of Amari Cooper as he dropped to just 18 snaps which is only a third of what he tallied over the last two games before Cooper and it is less than half of what he had seen in every game this season – we need another long play or a touchdown for him to make us happy)
  15. Josh Adams (while he has just one reception on one target, his 20/107/0 has him with a team leading 5.4 ypc which is the best for anyone with at least 20 carries aka small sample size alert – but he may be supplanting Clement as the “change of pace” back who spells Smallwood)
  16. Dallas D/ST (we are hoping for multiple sacks against a team coming off a bye and at home, that could be a tall order)
  17. Dallas Goedert and Jordan Matthews (waaaaay down the line with the addition of Golden Tate but they do see the field), Deonte Thompson (four targets in his last three games) Geoff Swaim (missed last week with a sprained MCL), Blake Jarwin, Dalton chultz or Rico Gathers (if Swaim is out), Rod Smith (if you are playing 150 lineups)

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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