Week 12 Sunday Night Football
Greetings Gamers! We get a crack at this pair of teams on the Prime Time slate for a second week in a row. Both teams are coming off losses and are essentially in “must win” territory if they want to keep pace with the Chicago Bears for a shot at the division crown.
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Week 12 Sunday Night Football
Greetings Gamers! We get a crack at this pair of teams on the Prime Time slate for a second week in a row. Both teams are coming off losses and are essentially in “must win” territory if they want to keep pace with the Chicago Bears for a shot at the division crown.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings -3.5 / 48.0
Green Bay Packers 22.5 implied points
Quarterback – Aaron Rodgers keeps making do with a dinged up receiving corps. Jimmy Graham is the latest casualty as he suffered a broken thumb on Thursday Night Football last week in Seattle against his former squad. He will try to play through it, but this just places more responsibility on the Green Bay signal-caller.
The Vikings have a respectable passing defense (#10 DVOA per Football Outsiders – allowing the 6th fewest yards per game at 226.0) and in a fun quirk, have only allowed the Future HOFer to top 300 passing yards once since the beginning of the 2013 season (this is of course a misleading stat because there have been a few games with the Packers having success via the rushing game and because Rodgers has topped 280+ passing yards in four of those nine games).
On the season, Rodgers has 2+ touchdowns in 7 of 10 games and he is a threat to top 300 yards in any given spot.
Running Back – Aaron Jones has made some serious noise the last two weeks with a combined 26/185/3 on the ground and seeing 11 targets for 8/90/1 in the passing game. During that stretch he has seen 90% and 74% of the snaps as Jamaal Williams 8% and 25% has been relegated to the sideline.
The Vikings run defense has garnered the #4 DVOA and they are also allowing the 4th fewest rushing yards per game and they have ceded the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing ball-carriers. No matter the metric, this is not going to be an easy matchup for Jones, but at least he should see the vast majority of the opportunities.
Wide Receiver – Davante Adams the former Fresno State University star is coming off a career high 166 receiving yards and that doubled as the fourth time this season he has topped 130+ yards. On the full-slate, he checks in as a WR4-7 in most projection systems and he is clearly an outstanding play as he also leads the team in red zone opportunities.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had the worst game of his career (just having fun, he was a 5th round selection this season and last week with the 7th time he has played more than a dozen snaps) seeing just three targets for one reception. He has actually had a fine rookie campaign and actually is the second most targeted wide receiver (42) behind only Davante Adams (106) and the only other Green Bay player with more targets is Jimmy Graham (57).
There is a decent chance that Randall Cobb will be limited or miss another game with his hamstring injury, which will keep Equanimeous St. Brown relevant on the short slates. Geronimo Allison is out for the season and in the three games he has missed, St. Brown has seen 4, 3 and 4 targets.
Tight End – if Jimmy Graham is out (he had surgery on his broken thumb, but has said he will try and play through it), long time Ram veteran Lance Kendricks will be the main tight end option with Marcedes Lewis and Robert Tonyan (five combined targets this season) backing him up.
Defense/Special Teams – Kirk Cousins has been sacked 2+ times in 7 of 10 games and the Vikings have been victimized for 16 turnovers which is the 7th highest figure in the league. We can consider this unit for differentiation/salary saving purposes.
Minnesota Vikings 25.5 implied points
Quarterback – Kirk Cousins is the only quarterback to top 300 yards against Green Bay and he had 425/4/1 back in Week 2. The Packers have the #9 DVOA according to Football Outsiders efficiency metrics and they are allowing the fifth fewest passing yards at 223 per game.
Cousins has been solid from a touchdown perspective with 2+ in 7 of 10 games, but his yardage totals have varied wildly with just four games at 300+, but that includes a pair of 400+ yard performances (Week 2 vs GB and Week 4 vs LAR). Though he does not have a trail of gaudy game logs, Cousins is in play on Sunday Night and for the full-slate he is a fringe QB10 for additional perspective.
Running Back – Dalvin Cook rolled out to 59 snaps (88%) against the Bears last week which is his highwater mark for the season and conversely Latavius Murray was on the field for just 6 snaps (9%). Minnesota is averaging only 84.7 rushing yards per game and over their last four games they have 13, 20, 19 and 20 attempts. The preference here is to look for Cook on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring and Murray is essentially unplayable on FanDuel at $8,500 with his last of volume and everything being tied to him reaching pay dirt. On DraftKings, Murray is in the mix as a mega-discount at $2,800, though again his volume has all but dried up with the return of Cook.
Wide Receiver – Adam Thielen is dealing with calf and back injuries, but he did play 100% of the snaps last week. Technically, the 12 targets for 7/66/0 was his second worst performance of the season – think about that for just a moment. Thielen is still second in the league with 101.3 receiving yards per game, he is #2 with 115 targets and #8 with 7 TDs. He is the most expensive option on DraftKings and the fourth most expensive player on FanDuel.
Stefon Diggs has been outstanding over his last three games (he missed Week 9 vs DET) with 43 targets for 31/278/3 and he is a fine pivot away from Thielen on both sites or if you want to pair the duo and forgo Cousins particularly on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring, that is a viable gambit as well.
Tight End – since Week 2, Kyle Rudolph has seen all but four of the targets to the tight end position. However, while we like the monopoly, across those eight games, he has 39 targets for 28/270/1 and for some reason, Cousins has been content to focus on his two ace wideouts.
Defense/Special Teams – on the season Green Bay has allowed 32 sacks (T9) and the Vikings have 32 of their own (T6). While the Packers are allowing just over one turnover per game, we have to like the opportunities for the Purple People Eaters to get to Aaron Rodgers a few times in this tilt.
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Strategy – the production from a fantasy standpoint should be relatively concentrated with Rodgers, Adams and Jones for the Packers and Thielen, Diggs and Cousins for the Vikings. As we saw with Todd Gurley on Monday night and the “marquee” players on Thanksgiving night, that does not mean the projections will hold true.
Single Game Ranking (considering projected production, pricing and popularity)
- Davante Adams (even though the Vikings know he will be getting the ball, Rodgers still has no issues forcing it to him – giving him the nod on DraftKings as the ideal Captain)
- Aaron Rodgers (on FanDuel, he would be my preferred MVP option where the half-PPR scoring curbs some of Adams’ appeal)
- Stefon Diggs (the discount to Thielen from a salary and a popularity perspective have him as our #3 play this week)
- Adam Thielen (the opportunity for the insane volume will continue, but we really do need him to find the end zone at least once to support this price tag)
- Aaron Jones (had 90% of the running back snaps last week and 74% two weeks ago – the job is his and he can contribute in all facets of the game)
- Kirk Cousins (the single game contests are all about corralling the touchdowns and Cousins only has 20 combined on the season – this makes it tough to see him as a top five option)
- Dalvin Cook (fully healthy and he should see the vast majority of any running back production)
- Marquez Valdez-Scantling (even if Randall Cobb makes it back from his hamstring injury, I still have interest in MVS as a differentiation play)
- Randall Cobb (if he plays, he theoretically should be “healthy” but who knows with coach Mike McCarthy likely to lose his job and ready to throw everything into saving it – or saving face to be hired by a different organization)
- Dan Bailey (the long-time Dallas kicker has been adequate hitting 8 for 9 FGAs over his last five games and 12 of 13 PATs)
- Mason Crosby (since his Week 5 debacle when he missed four of five FGAs and his lone PAT, Crosby has been solid nailing 9 of 10 FGAs and all 15 PATs)
- Lance Kendricks (if Graham and Cobb are out, move him above the kickers, if one is out keep him here if both are in, ignore this play)
- Equanimeous St. Brown (in play if either Graham or Cobb are out)
- Kyle Rudolph (just has not been nearly as involved with the addition of Kirk Cousins)
- Minnesota D/ST (at home and a decent opportunity to rack up multiple sacks)
- Jimmy Graham (without the broken thumb, I would probably have him on par with Valdez-Scantling after what has been a lackluster showing with his new franchise)
- Laquon Treadwell, Latavius Murray, Chad Bebee and Aldrick Robinson (rest of the potential Minnesota options)
- Green Bay D/ST (differentiation play in the hopes of a return touchdown)
- Jamaal Williams, Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis (Packers afterthoughts)
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
