NFL Prime Time – Week 12 Thursday Night Football (FREE)

Week 12 Thursday Night Football

Greetings Gamers!  The Turkey Day Night Cap certainly should help us shake off our tryptophan induced haze with a projected points total approaching 60 points.   When these two teams squared off in Week 3 it was a 43-37 road victory for the Saints.  Let’s see what goodness we can find!

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints -14.0 / 59.0

Atlanta Falcons 22.5 implied points

Quarterback – Matt Ryan currently leads the league with 331.0 passing yards per game which puts him on pace for the third highest single season total ever.  He is also #6 with 22 passing touchdowns against a paltry four interceptions.  These are MVP caliber numbers, even in today’s pass-happy NFL.

When these two teams met in Week 3, Ryan had a season high 5 TDs to go along with 374 passing yards and no turnovers.  New Orleans is coming off a great game holding Carson Wentz to arguably the worst game in his career with 156/0/3, but outside of that game they have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers along with a bottom of the barrel DVOA against the pass.

Running Back – Devonta Freeman will be on the Injured Reserve, with a potential chance to return when eligible in Week 15.  In his stead Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith have been carrying the load with Coleman assuming the lead role 66/33.

Unlike their passing defense, New Orleans has been outstanding against the run with a top five DVOA for the majority of the season and they are also allowing the fifth fewest yards per carry at 3.7 – one last tidbit, the 69 rushing yards allowed to Peyton Barber in Week 1 is the highest total allowed to an opposing ball carrier this season.  The last 100 yard rusher they allowed was Samaje Perine who went 22/117/1 last season in Week 11.

On DraftKings both Colman and Smith are viable options for their salary relief, particularly Smith at $2,600.  Beginning with Week 2 after Freeman was injured for the first time, Smith has seen at least eight touches per game and he has scored four times.

Surprisingly Coleman has just 33 targets through ten games for 26 receptions and 251 yards, the four receiving touchdowns have really buoyed his production, so just don’t blindly assume he is a “slam dunk” play as he has more than 12 DraftKings points in just four games this season.  Again, he is appropriately priced, but this is not the steal it may appear to be at first glance.

Wide Receiver – Julio Jones leads the league with 115.8 receiving yards per game which is on pace for the third highest single season total. Big plays of course are his calling card and he also leads the league with 18 receptions of 20+ yards, plus he has scored in each of the last three games.

Calvin Ridley has been solid, but he has scored only once since his Week 3 and 4 scoring binges netted him five touchdowns and he has topped 50 yards only once since then as well – the three touchdown game against the Saints served as his statement game.

Mohammad Sanu is steady, but he does not possess much upside with only three career 100 yard games and he has never topped five touchdowns in a season.

It should not be a surprise to learn that New Orleans is allowing the most fantasy point in the league to the wide receiver position.

Tight End – Austin Hooper tends to see about as much action as Ridley and Sanu, so he is actually a viable option for the salary savings on the single game slate and can be considered as one of the top TEs along with Jordan Reed and Trey Burton for the full Thursday slate.  Keep in mind that the Saints have not allowed anyone from this position to top 50 receiving yards and they have given up just one score on the year.

Defense/Special Teams – Drew Brees has not been sacked in the last four games and he has suffered just one lonely interception this season making the Falcons tough to recommend in any format for the Thursday holiday.

 

New Orleans Saints 36.5 implied points

Quarterback – Drew Brees is having arguably the most efficient season of his career with his outstanding running backs and Michael Thomas literally catching everything thrown his way.  He leads the league with a 126.9 passer rating (Patrick Mahomes is second all they way back at 117.4).

We can’t forget about Taysom Hill who is part of the New Orleans red zone package and while he is just 3 for 6 passing with 64 yards, he is the second leading rusher on the team with 30/161/1 and he also returns kickoffs – don’t lose sight of him in the single game contests, particularly on DraftKings when looking for a lineup differentiator with upside.

Atlanta is allowing the fourth most passing yards per game at 284.1 and also the fourth most points per game at 27.6.  Brees has 3+ touchdowns in six of ten games this season and the only real fear is that the Saints may get out to an early lead and be content to run the ball.

Running Back – surprisingly, Alvin Kamara is not the most expensive player on this slate coming in just behind teammate Michael Thomas on DraftKings and behind his quarterback Drew Brees on FanDuel.  The second year running back from the University of Tennessee has topped 25 fantasy points (full-PPR) six times in ten games and he already has over 1,100+ combined yards from scrimmage and is second in the league with 15 touchdowns.

Mark Ingram has been outstanding in his last two games with 29/207/2 on the ground and catching all three of his targets for 58 yards and another score.  While he is clearly the #3 option in the offense, there has been plenty of fantasy goodness to go around and this is a fair price point in all Thursday formats.

One last fun note, the Falcons have allowed the second most fantasy points this season against running backs and they are getting hammered by the position through the air – averaging 10.1 targets per game for 8.5 receptions, 67.2 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

Wide Receiver – Michael Thomas has caught 82 of 91 targets this season for an absurd 91% reception rate.  While the volume is not always there, he has been phenomenal, particularly over his last two games catching all 12 targets for 162 yards and three scores.  He is second in the league averaging 104.2 receiving yards per game, behind only Julio Jones.  In the first meeting between these two teams, he was a perfect 10 for 10 with 129 yards and though he did not find the end zone, that was still one of his best games this year.

Rookie Tre’Quan Smith is really the only other viable receiving option as the running backs are very involved in the Saints passing game.  He has had some moments since stepping in to replace the injured Ted Ginn Jr, but he also has had some “rookie” moments as well.  In Week 10 he did not see a single target on 51 snaps, however, that was rectified in Week 11 as he saw 13 targets for 10/157/1 – something in the 3-4 catch range with 50ish yards is a more reasonable baseline expectation going forward.

Tight End – the work at this position has been pretty well split 60% for Ben Watson who is in his second stint with New Orleans and 30% for Josh Hill with the last scraps going to Dan Arnold.  This trio has combined for 59 targets for 45/538/3, so their best value is for their salary cap relief.

Defense/Special Teams – Matt Ryan has been sacked 2+ times in 8 of 10 games, though the Falcons have allowed just four fumbles and four interceptions this season.  Their 27 total sacks allowed are middle-of-the-pack as are the 24 from the Saints defense.

Awesemo’s Showdown Rankings provide an additional look at how to value the player pool – from Alex himself and he is in the middle of quite a Showdown heater on Draftkings >>> premium members click here

Strategy – this is another game where it makes sense to mix and match several teams in the lower entry fee levels.  If you want to play “cash games” punting with your Captain spot and then making sure you can get both QBs, one of Julio or Thomas and then Kamara and rounding out your last spot with another discount dandy seems to be the ideal way to go.

Single Game Ranking (considering projected production, pricing and popularity)

  1. Julio Jones (based on the price tag, likely game flow and the sublime season he has having, this is my favorite Captain/MVP option – on FanDuel where there is no salary modifier, you can of course make arguments for Kamara, Brees, Thomas and Ryan)
  2. Alvin Kamara (involved in all facets of the game and able to score from anywhere on the field)
  3. Matt Ryan (yes, he is on the road, but still in a dome and he will likely be playing catchup most of the game – plus the discount from Brees is attractive)
  4. Michael Thomas (though there is always a risk he sees only a handful of targets, he has been converting at an otherworldly rate)
  5. Drew Brees (even with the many multi-TD games, some worry exists with two outstanding running options in the backfield)
  6. Mark Ingram (not particularly discounted on DraftKings, but priced right next to Matt Ryan makes him a nice differentiation play – on FanDuel he is in a pricing tier unto himself)
  7. Tre’Quan Smith (dealing with a sore foot, but expected to play – perhaps the “red Q” next to his name will keep some gamers away)
  8. Ito Smith (while he is well down the preferred pecking order in the Falcons offense, he has been more efficient than Tevin Coleman and the discount on both sites is going to be important, there is merit to using him as our Captain for DraftKings tournaments and stacking the rest of our lineup)
  9. Tevin Coleman (he is getting 2x the snaps that Smith is, so we can’t drop him too far below)
  10. Austin Hooper (he has been just as productive as teammates Mohammad Sanu and Calvin Ridley, plus his popularity will be suppress because gamers will not be wont to roll with a tight end in their flex spots)
  11. Wil Lutz (at home an he is 21 of 22 on the year for field goals and 39 of 40 on PATs)
  12. Matt Bryant (returned after missing three games with a hamstring injury, he was 4 for 4 on FGAs last week and now 13 of 13 on the season and he has converted 13 of 14 PATs)
  13. Mohammad Sanu and Calvin Ridley (I have a slight preference for Ridley, but it is not enough to overcome the savings offered by Sanu’s reasonable price tag)
  14. Ben Watson and Josh Hill (we are hoping for a touchdown)
  15. New Orleans D/ST (remember on DraftKings the scoring penalty ends at -4, we are hoping for some sacks because the Falcons are allowing less than one turnover per game)
  16. Keith Kirkwood and Austin Carr (much better on DraftKings for the extreme savings, as long as Brandon Marshall is not active, they will share WR3 duties)
  17. Marvin Hall (returns kickoffs for Atlanta, 11 targets on the season for 11/139/1 for the former University of Washington standout – the score was also in a prime time slate, not that means much of anything – has seen 8, 6 and 14 snaps in his three most recent games)
  18. Taysom Hill (hoping for a goal line package touchdown or heck, maybe he breaks a kick return)
  19. Atlanta D/ST (Brees does not get sacked and he has thrown one interception this season)
  20. Logan Paulsen and Eric Saubert (second and third fiddle to Austin Hooper)

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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