Week 14 Monday Night Football
Greetings Gamers! Monday Night Football sees two NFC teams who are Wild Card contenders squaring off as the 6-5-1 Minnesota Vikings head to Seattle to take on the 7-5 Seahawks.
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Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks -3.0 / 46.5
Minnesota Vikings 21.8 implied points
Quarterback – Kirk Cousins will have his work cut out for him as the Seattle defense has been quite stout at home and while they are no longer the Legion of Boom, they do have the #6 passing DVOA according to Football Outsiders. They have allowed 2 passing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers each of the last six weeks and four 300+ passing yard efforts in the same time frame.
Cousins has been steady this season with multiple touchdowns in 7 of 12 games, but he has topped the 300+ passing yard plateau only twice in his last seven games. Ideally he will have a hand in most of the Vikings scoring efforts on Monday Night Football, but they could be limited. On the full-slate, Cousins is in the QB16-20 range according to most scoring systems.
Running Back – you know the drill here all too well… it is Dalvin Cook with the volume in both the running and passing game, but we always have Latavius Murray lurking as a touchdown vulture when Minnesota makes forays inside the 10-yard line. Seattle has been a little shaky against the run this season with the #20 DVOA, though they are allowing 116.8 rushing yards per game (#16) on a league high 5.1 yards per carry. Over the last month they have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing ball-carriers with 25.3 carries, 133.8 rushing yards and four scores with 4.3 targets per game culminating in 3.0 receptions, 30.0 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Wide Receiver – on the season Seattle has been in the middle-of-the-pack from a fantasy perspective against opposing wide receivers, but over the last four weeks they have slipped to allowing the 7th most fantasy points per game and they gave up big performances to Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, D.J. Moore and Dante Pettis.
The duo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs is clicking on all cylinders and should find room to operate in the short passing game and they are particularly appealing on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring format.
Over the last three weeks the targets in the passing game have been:
Stefon Diggs 34 (5,11,18)
Adam Thielen 31 (10, 9, 12)
Dalvin Cook 16 (10, 3, 3)
Kyle Rudolph 15 (3, 7, 5)
Aldrick Robinson 13 (9, 2, 2)
Laquon Treadwell 8 (3, 3, 2)
Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs rank highly in targets #2 / #7, yards per game #1 / #20, receptions of 20+ yards #10 / #21 and touchdowns #5 / #13. Look to get at least one if not both of these players on your roster.
Tight End – though Kyle Rudolph has not been as productive as we would have expected this season, he has had every tight end target over the last seven games, save for one and on the season he has 59 targets and the rest of the Vikings tight ends have combined for eight. Seattle has been above average all season against the position, but we know the opportunities will all be consolidated with Rudolph.
Defense/Special Teams – over the last five games, the Seahawks have allowed 16 sacks and on the season Seattle is #8 with 37 sacks allowed – though they do get mega props for having a league low with only nine combined turnovers. The Vikings have 36 sacks and check in as the #8 team so we can look to the Purple People Eaters for some differentiation with a decent chance to collect a few fantasy points.
Seattle Seahawks 24.8 implied points
Quarterback – Russell Wilson is in the midst of an incredibly efficient season with 29 passing touchdowns (#4), 8.33 yards per attempt (#7) despite being #24 in pass attempts with the #25 passing yards per game at 226 culminating in the #4 passer rating at 115.5 which is by far a career best.
Minnesota has the #10 passing DVOA and the #4 rushing DVOA so this is going to be a tough row to hoe for the Seahawks. Wilson does a great job of not relying on any one particular receiver with half a dozen different pass catchers leading the team in targets over the 12 games this season.
Running Back – things get tricky here with Seattle willing to look to each of their backs in various scenarios, riding the hot hand and not worrying about “getting everyone going” in their run focused offense. Chris Carson is the “lead” back but he will give way to Mike Davis in pass-heavy situations and rookie Rashaad Penny continues to improve each week and after being inactive at the beginning of the season, he has arguably become the “big play” threat for this offense. That is not going to help us divine who is the best option in the single game contests, but it should help diffuse the popularity of this trio.
Wide Receiver – one again we are hard pressed to find any particularly “preferred” option in the passing attack with Tyler Lockett becoming the WR1 when Doug Baldwin was working through his injuries and somewhat limited in games and though he is clearly the third wheel now, we have seen flashes of upside potential from David Moore so we know that he will be ready when he gets his opportunities.
From an overall upside perspective, Lockett gets the edge among this trio with his ability to get big plays and since he returns punts along with sharing kickoff return duties with Rashaad Penny.
Tight End – there is not much to see here outside of a little touchdown hunting as Nick Vannett has had only seven targets over the last four games and Ed Dickson has seen just four.
Defense/Special Teams – Seattle is #17 with 31 sacks and the Vikings are also pretty good at protecting their quarterback allowing only 30 sacks with is #18 on the season. Minnesota has allowed the 9th most turnovers with 18 on the year and the Seahawks are #9 with 19 takeaways. We know this unit thrives at home and they are always in the mix for a big play with the crowd behind them.
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Strategy – with Seattle spreading the ball around so much, it makes sense to focus on Russell Wilson who should have his hand in most of the Seahawk scoring plays and we know that Minnesota will direct most of their offensive opportunities to Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Dalvin Cook. That should make up the core of most lineups and at this point we can either stick to the single-entry tournaments and “cash games” or branch out and do some mixing and matching in the hopes of corralling the touchdowns that occur outside of this core.
Single Game Ranking (considering projected production, pricing and popularity)
- Russell Wilson (the best way to corner the Seattle fantasy production)
- Adam Thielen (spendy but amazing)
- Stefon Diggs (essentially Thielen-Lite)
- Dalvin Cook (should see the bulk of the rushing attempts and now that he is healthy, he has been active in the passing game as well as the #3 option)
- Kirk Cousins (behind his receivers in the full-PPR formats and for me personally, in half-PPR as well since we can pinpoint where the vast majority of the volume will be directed and that duo can still have a good game, even if Cousins falters with yardage totals or doesn’t get the rock into the end zone more than once or twice)
- Tyler Lockett (best big play option and he also gets a slight boost with opportunities as a punt and kick returner)
- Chris Carson (should get the first looks, but he will give way in various scenarios to both of his counterparts Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny)
- Kyle Rudolph (here is where we can get a bit of a “swerve” play and we know he should get any looks earmarked for the tight ends in the Vikings’ game plan)
- Doug Baldwin (health has been an issue, but he does have both touchdowns this season in his last three appearances – volume has not been there with any regularity however)
- Seattle D/ST (looking for the homefield crowd to give them an extra boost on the National stage)
- Sebastian Janikowski (40 years old and in his 18th season – he was in the league when the Raiders and Seahawks were Divisional rivals in the AFC West)
- Rashaad Penny, Mike Davis and Latavius Murray (we are touchdown hunting with the secondary backs from both squads)
- Aldrick Robinson (four touchdowns this season on 26 targets for 15/187 and just to point out that he has three of those scores on the Week 4 and Week 11 prime time slates – this is indicative of NOTHING, well other than he “rises to the occasion under the spotlight…” – on a serious note he did have 9 targets in the last game, but also had 9 targets combined in the four prior games)
- Dan Bailey (he has missed three of his last five FGAs and we know that his coach is not thrilled – kicking is a fickle aspect of fantasy football, but this just doesn’t seem like the best spot aka time for a five-field goal outing!)
- Nick Vannett, Jaron Brown and Ed Dickson (lottery ticket tertiary Seahawk receivers)
- Laquon Treadwell (10 targets for 6/63/0 over the last four games)
- Minnesota D/ST (Seattle does a good job of protecting the ball with a league low nine total turnovers and Russell Wilson is quite elusive when the pocket breaks down which will limit the opportunities for a big play)
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
