NFL Prime Time – Week 15 Sunday Night Football (FREE)

Week 15 Sunday Night Football

Greetings Gamers!  We have an intriguing matchup on Sunday Night Football with the Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) heading across the country to face the Los Angeles Rams (11-2) with a quarterback switch to the reigning Super Bowl MVP as they attempt to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive as heavy double-digit underdogs.

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Thursday Night Analysis

Monday Night Analysis

Yahoo! Million Dollar Baller Analysis

 

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams -13.0 / 52.0

Philadelphia Eagles 19.5 implied points

Quarterback – Nick Foles will be taking the reins against one of his former squads as Carson Wentz is out with fractured vertebrae (YIKES!) and we have seen the last of him this season as Philadelphia is prudently shutting him down.

The Rams have a top end passing defense with the #6 DVOA and they have an outstanding pass rush and their all-star secondary is getting healthy as the regular season winds down.  For the full slate Foles is rated as the QB15-20 depending on your preferred projection source and I think he is a fine option for the single game slate as we can expect the Eagles to be passing early and often – our only concern is that he has not really seen action since the first two weeks of the season.

Los Angeles has been a middle-of-the-road squad against opposing quarterbacks from a fantasy perspective and over the last month they have actually been in the bottom third of the league for fantasy points allowed – though mostly this is a function of their foes needing to take to the air in order to keep up.

Running Back – Corey Clement is out for the remainder of the year after being placed on the injured reserve with a knee injury so we will see Notre Dame rookie Josh Adams sharing the load with Darren Sproles who has missed the majority of the season with a hamstring injury (he was injured in Week 1 and did not return until Week 13).

Last week the snap count was evenly split between Adams (21 plays 40%) and Sproles (22 / 42%) with Wendell Smallwood only being involved for four measly plays.  Adams came onto the scene mid-season and had his moments, but we can project the 13-year veteran Sproles to be in the game for high-leverage situation and in his limited touches each of the last two outings, he managed a rushing and a receiving touchdown, scoring in both appearances.

Wide Receiver – Why oh why did the Eagles trade for Golden Tate?!  Yes, he is talented and the Golden Domer was outstanding both with the Seahawks and with the Lions, but he is redundant with USC Alum (high Spags!) Nelson Agholor better suited for the slot than on the outside.  If you want a contrarian option, Agholor will likely be overlooked on the single game slate, but most projections have Tate marking an even production outcome with WR1 Alshon Jeffery.  Anything can happen in any give game, but these are the only three options I would consider from the Philadelphia WR corps and they are sort of “contrarian” when considering the amazing Rams duo at the same position.

Tight End – Zach Ertz has been amazing this season and is vying with Travis Kelce (sorry Gronk) for the best tight end honors. Los Angeles has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to the position over the last month though on the year they are in the middle-of-the-road.  Ertz is #3 in both targets and receptions among all pass catchers with the #17 ranking at 78.2 yards per game.  He will be popular and is definitely worthy of Captain/MVP designation on both DraftKings and FanDuel and could be an “overlooked” play on any site where the Sunday night game is included in the action.

Defense/Special Teams – The Eagles have allowed 11 quarterbacks to top 250+ passing yards this season with five multi-TD games.  They check in at #13 with 36 sacks but are #28 with only 12 takeaways.  The Rams are #20 with just 15 combined turnovers and #21 with only 29 sacks allowed – if you want a contrarian “double dip” Sproles will be returning punts and to win the top prize we will need weird things to happen to avoid ties at the top of the leaderboard.

 

Los Angeles Rams 32.5 implied points

Quarterback – Jared Goff is a fringe QB5 on the full-slate and we will want to give him strong consideration for our Captain/MVP designation in this matchup against the patchwork Eagles secondary.  While Philadelphia coaching staff does deserve some credit for coaxing this crew into the #23 DVOA according to Football Outsiders, we know that the Rams head coaching wunderkind Sean McVay will put his offense in situations to succeed regardless of the matchup.

Goff has scuffled over the last two games with only 387 yards combined against Detroit and Chicago with five of his 11 INTs on the season, but we should give him a pass as the Lions are sneaky good and it was a cold, cold, cold game last Sunday night for a through and through California boy.  In the four games leading into these fantasy performance doldrums, Goff posted 413, 318, 391 and 295 passing yard performances with 12 aerial scores and one on the ground for good measure.

Philadelphia has been in the bottom third of the league for both the season and over the last month for fantasy points allowed to opposing signal-callers.

Running Back – Todd Gurley II once again, do we really need to roll over the accolades for the top running back in the league #3 in yards from scrimmage, #2 with 92.5 rushing yards per game, NO FUMBLES (knock, Knock, KNOCKING on wood) #2 with 10 rushing attempts of 20+ yards and #3 in the league for scoring with 120 points only one behind only kickers Wil Lutz and Harrison Butker.

Over their last four games, the Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs – though on the season they are mid-pack… which is mostly a result of them getting out in front and forcing their foes to play catchup.

Saquon Barkley with games of 141 combined yards and two touchdowns and 229 yards and 1 touchdown, Mark Ingram 102 rushing yards and two touchdowns, Ezekiel Elliott with games of 125 combined yards and 187 yards and even Adrian Peterson got in the mix during Week 13 with 98 rushing yards and a score – Gurley is spendy but worth it checking in as the top running back in all formats on every projection site I have found for this week.

Wide Receiver – Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks and Josh Reynolds have each played damn near every snap over the last three weeks for the #3 scoring offense in the league at 32.7 points per game (KC #1 35.6 and NO #2 34.4).  During that time, we have seen Woods with 33 targets, Cooks with 25 and Reynolds with 20.  Woods and Cooks are clearly the top two options, making Reynolds an intriguing play lost in the shuffle.

Tight End – over the last six games Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett have corralled all of the targets for this position and over the Rams last three games Everett has produced 8/75/2 on 14 opportunities with Higbee checking in at 11 targets for 9/91/0.  They are nice “touchdown hunting” options on the single game slate.

Defense/Special Teams – this is an intriguing spot for the Rams at home as heavy favorites against a team that has allowed multiple sacks in 11 of their 13 games.  In that category, LA has been lacking with the #21 total at just 29 sacks, though they do have a frontrunner for a back-to-back Defensive MVP with Aaron Darnold who is leading the league with 16.5 sacks.

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Strategy – both DraftKings and FanDuel have done an excellent job with the salaries for the top players in this tilt and we will need to get a little creative to construct a lineup that we can get comfortable with if only playing a handful of entries.  For the MME (max multi-entry) crew we can look to most of the Eagles of “contrarian” plays – well contrarian for a single game contest anyway.

Single Game Ranking (considering projected production, pricing and popularity)

  1. Jared Goff (my sincere hope is that The Masses will consider his recent game log and be reticent to choose the “California Boy” after his last two games – look, it was wicked cold in Chi-Town and I am giving him a mulligan for that 4 INT performance and hope that he is below 65% with his popularity in the single game contests and we have MANY options to tie to him for a synergistic strategy – even including the kicker <gasp>)
  2. Todd Gurley II (yeah, he is the best player in the league so by default the best player on the slate – he had “dud” performances in Week 14 against Chicago and in Week 11 vs Kansas City despite 105 points being scored – just have faith in his amazing talent!)
  3. Nick Foles (it will be interesting to see how The Masses approach the “backup quarterback” who also won the Super Bowl MVP trophy last February)
  4. Zach Ertz (if the Eagles are going to be in this game, it will be as a result of Ertz approaching 100+ yards on a dozen targets with an outside chance for multiple touchdowns – he is a “potential contrarian” Captain/MVP in the 20% popularity range and could be a slate-breaker)
  5. Greg Zuerlein (the 7th year veteran has MADE MULTIPLE FIELD GOALS in every game other that Week 2 against Arizona – oh wait, that was because Johnny Hekker was filling in for him and converted all four of his kicks – they were just all extra point attempts when Greg The Leg was shelved with a groin injury – VERY FEW will be selecting him for their rosters on FanDuel at a whopping $10k price tag – THIS IS AN EXTREME SINGLE GAME SLATE OPTION on that site – he is more reasonably priced on DraftKings and very much in play there as well)
  6. Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks (we have to consider this pair together as they will see the majority of the passing goodness on Sunday. Woods has 111 targets for 71/1,032/5 and Cooks checks in with 98 targets for 66/1,048/3 on the season)
  7. Josh Adams and Darren Sproles (on FanDuel I will be leaning towards Adams for his health and running ability, though he is a rookie and it would not be a shock to see head coach Doug Pederson lean on the veteran as Philly attempts to keep their playoff hopes alive – on DraftKings the full-PPR scoring in a likely negative game script provides us with the edge to focus on Sproles who also will be the punt returner – with Clement in street clothes, you will want to hunt for news to figure out who is returning kickoffs for the defending Super Bowl Champions – just a reminder the team leader DeAndre Carter played on Saturday for his current team the Texans – best guess with Corey Clement out it will be Wendell Smallwood who no longer curries favor in the regular offense)
  8. Jake Elliott (the second year 5th round draft selection has made 2+ field goals in 7 games this season with multiple opportunities in eight games – we need some differentiation and the chaotic kicking game is one way to garner that)
  9. Golden Tate and Alshon Jeffery (outside of Zach Ertz, it is going to be hard to predict where the Philadelphia offense is going to produce)
  10. Los Angeles D/ST (home team with the reigning Defensive MVP and sack leader Aaron Darnold as double digit favorites with three return TDs under their belt make for a lower owned option on the single game slate against a quarterback who has not seen action since Week 2 – remember, we need to be different to see our “name in lights” for the glory)
  11. Josh Reynolds (on most other teams the former Texas A&M star would be a WR2 though he is behind the pecking order with Woods, Gurley and Cooks and arguably the tight ends in the Los Angeles passing game)
  12. Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee (hey, here are the aforementioned tight ends, look above for my thoughts, but they are equals with Reynolds for touchdown equity)
  13. Nelson Agholor (lottery ticket or in game injury for one of the other Philly WRs and about the same potential as teammate TE2 Dallas Goedert)
  14. Philadelphia D/ST (DGAF is the best description for the squad on the road with 8 INTs and 4 fumbles recovered – say a little prayer to your maker when rolling with the Eagles unit on Sunday night)
  15. Pharoh Cooper, Jordan Matthews, Justin Davis, Wendell Smallwood, Blake Countess, JoJo Natson (Do you feel lucky Punk… Well do you? just click the link, no commercials and Mr. Eastwood will set you straight – go ahead and call him Clint, I will wait 😉

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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