NFL Prime Time – Week 5 Thursday Night Football (FREE)

NFL Prime Time Games – Week 5

Greetings Gamers!  Hopefully everyone survived the amazingly high-scoring week where seemingly every popular play exceeded expectations.  Let’s take a quick moment to review the Week 4 Prime Time games.

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Week 4 Summary

Last week nearly lived up to the hype across the board as the Prime Time slate had three of the top five projected scoring games and for the most part they delivered.

LAR 38 vs MIN 31 – this was a game loaded with fantasy goodness with 69 total points, 887 passing yards and all 8 touchdowns along with another 154 yards on the ground.  An astounding EIGHT players scored 24+ points in full-PPR formats and we also got not one but TWO TROLL TDs from Aldrick Robinson.

BAL 26 at PIT 14 – sadly we did not see a continuation of Sunday fireworks in this game, outside of Joe Flacco topping 363 passing yards and a pair of aerial scores.  John Brown reminded everyone of his big play ability when he is healthy hauling in three catches for 116 including a 71 yard touchdown.  The Steelers looked flat and it was Ryan Switzer who led the team in receptions with seven (21 snaps, 7 targets and a carry) – file this away for the main slate this week as James Conner will be popular as an option to attack the Atlanta defense, but we will want to keep in mind that his snap count and % of snaps have decreased each of the first four weeks 77/92%, 73/89%, 56/85% and 50/79%.  At least the Steelers have a game against Atlanta this week to make amends.

KCR 27 at DEN 24 – oh my but the analysis in Monday’s article where I declared Patrick Mahomes to be a WIZARD certainly came to fruition with an exciting, down-to-the-wire affair – oh and when he converted the first down as he was being chased AND nearly brought down by Von Miller with his left hand… that was phenomenal.

While the fantasy production was mostly concentrated with Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce and Mahomes we did see Phillip Lindsay look good toting the rock and Courtland Sutton is definitely someone to keep an eye on as he may sneak by Demaryius Thomas in the pecking order.  The one major disappointment was Case Keenum not breaching the 300 yards passing plateau after the Kansas City D/ST had been looking about as fearsome as a damp paper towel over the first three weeks of the season.

Week 5

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots -10.5 / 51.5

The demise of Tom Brady is on hold for another week as he was excellent in Foxboro against the Miami Dolphins with 274/3/2 and while the four interceptions on the season are a little concerning after just eight all of last year, we can give him a mulligan there as he is 41 years old after all.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback – Andrew Luck racked up 464 yards in overtime going 40 for 62 with four touchdowns, but just one completion over 23 yards as he is still working back from his long layoff and he will also most likely be missing T.Y. Hilton (hamstring).  This means that Chester Rogers, Zach Pascal and Ryan Grant will all be in play for the single game contests.

With the lack of a running game, Andrew Luck along with one Hail Mary from Jacoby Brissett have 187 passing attempts against just 80 rushing attempts. WOW!  For perspective only Minnesota is averaging a higher differential of pass plays over running plays at 29.0 per game, Indianapolis 26.8, Pittsburgh 26.3, Detroit 21.3 and Cincinnati/Green Bay 18.2 (tied)… Washington is the only team that is averaging more rushing plays than passing plays and they are at -1.0.

Running Back – Nyheim Hines has seen 11, 5, 1 and 9 targets in reverse chronological game order this season and he is tied with Eric Ebron for 7 total red zone targets over the last three weeks.  While Marlon Mack (hamstring) did partially practice on both Monday and Tuesday (this section was written Tuesday night) so far he has only seen action in Week 2 for 18 and it is hard to see him as much of a factor even if he is able to take the field – please note that he has been dealing with this injury since the first preseason game. Jordan Wilkins is going to still be on the field, but as Hines snaps have gone up, his have decrease and also he has seen 1, 2, 2 and 3 targets (most recent game listed first).

Wide Receiver – T.Y. Hilton is all but assured of missing this game with his hamstring injury, which is a shame because his presence likely would have been the focus of the Patriots defense.  Through four weeks Hilton has 38 of the teams 98 targets, Eric Ebron 30, Nyheim Hines 26, Ryan Grant 23, Chester Rogers 21, Zach Pascal 10 and the rest of the team has 18 combined.

Tight End – Jack Doyle did not practice on Tuesday so it is very likely that he will be sitting out his third straight game.  This means Eric Ebron will be a popular option, please do keep in mind that his price has taken his workload into account and we will be hoping he can hang on to most of the passes that he gets his hands on.

Defense/Special Teams – As mentioned in the lead paragraph, Tom Brady has an uncharacteristically high four interceptions, but that is still just one per game and he has been sacked just six times.  This is a wild card option on the road at best.

 

New England Patriots

Quarterback – Tom Brady projects out as one of the top quarterbacks on the week and naturally the most expensive option in the single game contests as well.  If there is a chance that New England gets out to an early lead – we could see another strong day from Sony Michel which would cap some of the potential Brady upside.  Of course Tom Terrific can still have a solid game in this scenario, but he needs the Colts to put points on the board for him to have an amazing week which would elevate him to “must play” status – otherwise, he is an intriguing option to “fade” if you are only building a couple lineups.

Running Back – James White looks to be the MUCH more complete back when compared to rookie Sony Michel as he will see some red zone looks (9), passing looks and of course the trust of Brady.  Michel does have 11 red zone opportunities himself, but his 5 total targets and none last week are dwarfed by White’s 30 on the season.

Wide Receiver – Julian Edelman will be making his return from PED suspension and also his torn ACL.  Chris Hogan has been disappointing in Edelman’s absence, but this has been accounted for in his price and the “never again” crowd will likely be staying away from this option (well, as much as they can with a two team player pool).  Phillip Dorsett is an intriguing TD option on DraftKings where he is just $3,600.

One more factor, in addition to TE Rob Gronkowski’s ankle injury, is the presence of Josh Gordon who did see 18 snaps last week in his first action with New England seeing two targets.

With all of the moving parts, lack of practice/time in the Patriots’ system for Edelman/Gordon and Brady’s proclivity for spreading the ball around – this whole position is a wild card.

Tight End – Would it really surprise any of us for Rob Gronkowski to sit this game out with the Patriots’ being so heavily favored – or be limited if he does play and New England is able to get out to an early lead.  This seems like a clear spot to just let others take the risk on a Gronk-Smash performance.

Defense/Special Teams – This would be the defense I would consider from this game, they are at home, double digit favorites against a team that drops back to pass on 70% of their plays.  Through the first four weeks, the Colts signal-callers have been sacked 9 times, intercepted three times and the team has coughed up three fumbles and two return scores.

 

Summary – This should be an interesting game to get our Week 5 kicked off.  We have a few potential injuries (Hilton, Gronkowski, Mack), the return of Julian Edelman and the potential increased usage of Josh Gordon.  Do not be afraid to leave a couple thousand dollars on the table in the DraftKings contests if Rob Gronkowski is out as it will help provide differentiation.

Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)

  1. Nyheim Hines (I like this play on DraftKings as the Captain for some price savings, this is definitely a differentiation play and I understand if gamers want to go elsewhere)
  2. James White (rolling with White is a little more “main stream” and without the same discount on DraftKings with the 1.5x salary multiplier in the Captain slot, but the full-PPR and red zone work are very appealing)
  3. Andrew Luck (we know everything is going to need to go through Luck, win or lose)
  4. Chester Rogers (if Y. Hilton is out, then Rogers will see a boost in popularity, but probably not as much as Eric Ebron)
  5. Ryan Grant (this is where you get to call me REALLY crazy, but he is a fine direct pivot away from Rogers or on DraftKings look to Zach Pascal to open things up)
  6. Tom Brady (probably the best way to corral all of the Patriots scoring opportunities)
  7. Eric Ebron (leads the team in targets, also has stone hands)
  8. Chris Hogan (perhaps having Edelman back gives him more room to operate)
  9. Julian Edelman (I will let others go this route)
  10. Rob Gronkowski (the ankle injury and high point spread have me concerned, but would it shock us if he plays and the first two drives end with Brady to Gronk for a score?)
  11. Sony Michel (sooooo many options on the Pats, I would like to see him more active in the passing game – otherwise he really needs a touchdown to be relevant)
  12. New England D/ST (always an opportunity for a Pick-6 with soooooo many pass attempts)
  13. Pick a Kicker (Gostkowski will be more popular, but it isn’t like Vinatieri will be kicking in Foxboro for the first time)
  14. Phillip Dorsett (will need to break a big play “to get there” with likely drop in volume)
  15. Cordarrelle Patterson (should be active as he returns kicks, but will be bumped down the pecking order on offense)
  16. Jordan Wilkins (purely a wild card play)
  17. Kenjon Barner (saw first action this season with 10 snaps and 3 rushing attempts for 11 yards)
  18. Jacoby Brissett (perhaps he gets another chance at a Hail Mary in a “Remember me?!” spot against his former squad – J/K)
  19. Robert Turbin (may play for the first time this season, likely in a limited role per fantasy/media sources)

Reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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