Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers -9.5 / 46.5
While this game is checking in at a lower implied total, with all of the various players who are dinged up at the moment, we do have some intriguing options and strategies for the single game contests!
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San Francisco 49ers implied team total of 18.5
Quarterback – Raise your hand if you had Jimmy G on your season long or best ball teams… yeah, I did as well. Now, shake that off and consider what we have with former University of Iowa QB C.J. Beathard who is coming off the first 300+ yard game of his NFL career last week against Arizona. The Cardinals are allowing just 248.6 passing yards per game, albeit against mediocre competition with Jared Goff the only other player topping 300 passing yards at 354 (Russell Wilson 172, Mitchell Trubisky 220, Alex Smith 255).
Green Bay has allowed only one quarterback to top 221 yards and that was back in Week 2 when Kirk Cousins rolled them for 425/4/1 otherwise it has been Matthew Stafford 183, Josh Allen 151, Alex Smith 220 and Trubisky 171.
Point being, it is not like the Packers have faced much competition thus far and with the 49ers Week 1 projected backfield out of commission (Garoppolo, Jerick McKinnon and an iffy at best Matt Breida) they will be leaning on the passing game to move the ball. Sadly though most of their key ball catchers are dinged up as well George Kittle (QUES with a knee injury but expected to play), Pierre Garcon (QUES knee and shoulder but expected to play, effectiveness well ugh, look at game logs), Matt Breida (ankle and GTD), Trent Taylor (DOUBT back injury and has not practiced this week).
Just remember, there will be offense and Beathard will likely have a hand in most of it on Monday night.
Running Back – Alfred Morris should continue to see an expanded role HOWEVER it must be noted that this is his SEVENTH SEASON (yeah, my how time flies) in the league and he has just 92 targets FOR HIS CAREER and while that is not necessarily a precursor for Monday Night Football, it certainly is not comforting… but what else do the ‘Niners have in their barren cupboard?!?!
Well, I am glad you asked – because we have a potential Discount Dandy with Kyle Juszczyk who is fourth on the squad with 20 targets this season which is nice, sadly the ONE RUSHING ATTEMPT for 12 yards which came last week is not very enticing, he is more in the fullback/H-back mold and really only in play on DraftKings for the full-PPR scoring. On a scary note, that one tote is seventh highest on the team, behind even Marquise Goodwin. Raheem Mostert is an extreme punt option on DraftKings who may see a handful of touches spelling Alfred Morris.
Wide Receiver – It is at this point where we just put the names in a hat and pull one out. Pierre Garcon is the most polished option, but he just can’t stay healthy. Marquise Goodwin is a great deep threat, but he can’t stay healthy. So that actually puts Richie James (only if Garcon AND Goodwin are both out) and Kendrick Bourne in play as desperation options with Bourne actually two leading San Francisco with two touchdowns
Tight End – George Kittle played with C.J. Beathard at Iowa… Yaaaaayyyy. That and a finski will get you an overpriced drink at Starbucks #DietPepsiFTW. Kittle has been the one shining beacon in what has devolved into a lost season for San Francisco and he leads the team with 35 targets for 23/399/1 and while the one lonely touchdown is not comforting, the 17.3 yards per catch (on the strength of an 82 yard score against the Chargers is nice). The only other tight end of note is the younger Celek brother as Garrett has seen four targets resulting in 3/29/1 – again desperate times call for desperate measures.
Defense/Special Teams – This just in… close your eyes and try hard to think of how many sacks you believe that the Green Bay Packers have allowed… the magic number is eightEFFINGteen. The Buffalo Bills only got them for two, but DET, WAS, MIN, CHI got four each along with six fumble recoveries and a pair of interceptions. Enjoy!
Green Bay Packers implied team total of 28.0
Quarterback – Aaron Rodgers is amazing, but likely to be going back to his “larger” knee brace after “suffering a setback” last week with the “smaller” one. I just bring this up to add I DON’T CARE!
On the season while the 49ers have allowed only 253.8 passing yards per game, they have given up 12 touchdowns against just one single solitary interception. Opposing signal-callers are getting a touchdown on an amazing 6.3% of their passing attempts. Do not overthink this one as Rodgers is easily the best “raw” points option in the player pool.
Running Back – Ugh, yet another murky situation and while only four players have a rushing attempt for The Pack we do not really have a good read on what they will be doing (Jamaal Williams 53/195/0, Aaron Jones who was suspended for the first two tilts 24/147/1 and RB sorta WR sometimes Ty Montgomery is at 20/87/0 and Rodgers checks in with his knee brace at 14/77/0).
Looking at the snap count, we have seen that since Aaron Jones has returned from his suspension, he has been in on just shy of 30% of the snaps over those three games and Jamaal Williams is a little ahead with around 40% of the snaps and Ty Montgomery is lurking with about a third of the action as well.
This just serves to tell us that we really do not have any idea who will be in the mix when it counts and if I were playing my hard earned money (oh wait, I am) then my preference would be Ty Montgomery, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams on DraftKings with their pricing and on FanDuel it would be Williams, Jones and then Montgomery.
Wide Receiver – Davante Adams is all where this begins and ends as the former Fresno State Bulldog is FAR beyond any of the other options for the Packers. As of this writing it remains to be seen what Randall Cobb will have in the tank after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury and we also know that Geronimo Allison is dealing with the same issue.
In the absence of that duo, we have seen Marquez Valdes-Scantling step into the void with a 71% and a 95% snap count over the duration and most importantly last week posting 10 targets only behind Graham (11) and Adams (12). If either Cobb or Allison is out or limited – we can MOST DEFINITELY consider MVS at his current price on FanDuel and he is solidly in play on DraftKings as well. Lastly if both Cobb and Allison are out, then Equanimeous St. Brown is in play for salary relief on DraftKings and he would be a direct pivot away from Valdes-Scantling on FanDuel for differentiation.
Tight End – Jimmy Graham has been in on about 80% of the Packers plays and we know that he is the next most trusted option after Davante Adams. The former Saint and Seahawk is second on the team in targets and receptions and third in yards (36 targets 22/245/1). There is not much else to say other than San Francisco has allowed the most touchdowns in the league to opposing tight ends.
Defense/Special Teams – San Francisco has been just as bad as Green Bay at protecting the quarterback allowing 18 sacks on the season along with four fumbles, seven interceptions and a pair of return touchdowns. There will be opportunity for this unit to produce on Monday night.
Summary – player availability is going to dictate a lot for the single game contests, so be sure to monitor news throughout the day up until kickoff for actives/inactives and injury updates.
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
- Aaron Rodgers (head and shoulders the best player and he will be wildly popular, but there are ways to differentiate elsewhere)
- J. Beathard (with the decimated running game and likely playing from behind, we have to give strong consideration to the San Francisco signal-caller being paired with Rodgers)
- Davante Adams (easily the best option outside of the quarterbacks)
- George Kittle(as long as he is active, he will likely be the most peppered target for the ‘Niners)
- Jimmy Graham (no surprises here)
- Alfred Morris (preferred on FanDuel where the lack of receptions is somewhat muted, he is fairly priced on DraftKings)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DraftKings for sure, FanDuel only if Cobb or Allison are out)
- Kyle Juszczyk (DraftKings only and one of Garcon or Goodwin need to be out)
- Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin and Geronimo Allison (it is going to be 30ish degrees during the game and that does not bode well for all of the receivers dealing with hamstring injuries)
- Packers D/ST (lots of opportunities for sacks and turnovers)
- Mason Crosby (missing four field goals and an extra point last week could be messing with his psyche – at least the 12-year veteran has a lot of experience under his belt)
- San Francisco D/ST (a cheap differentiation play, you would be surprised to know how few gamers realize that four points is the most that can be lost by defenses for points allowed on DraftKings)
- Green Bay Running Backs (DraftKings: Montgomery, Jones, Williams FanDuel: Williams, Jones, Montgomery based on their respective pricing)
- Robbie Gould (this former Chicago Bear is no stranger to Lambeau Field or kicking in cold weather)
- Equanimeous St. Brown (DraftKings only and we need to have Cobb or Allison out again)
- Kendrick Bourne (wildcard on both sites, lower price makes him a strategic punt on DraftKings)
- Matt Breida (a game time decision, he has had so many in-game injuries, I just can’t go back to him until he is fully healthy)
- Raheem Mostert, Garret Celek and Richie James (vaya con dios – DraftKings only)
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
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