NFL Prime Time Games – Week 7
Greetings Gamers! We have a dichotomy with our Prime Time featured games this week with a bit of a slugfest brewing (42.5 projected point total) on Thursday night as the Denver Broncos heading into Arizona to play the Cardinals on a short week and the glorious Sunday Night Football matchup featuring The Wizard Patrick Maholmes as Kansas City is in another Prime Time slot hosting the Cincinnati Bengals with a 58.5 projected point total which tops the list this week.
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Week 6 Summary
The Good, The Bad and The Eli summarizes the DFS Week 6 landscape.
PHI 34 at NYG 13 was a sobering moment for Giants fans as they realized that longtime team leader Eli Manning just isn’t going to get it done in his age 37 season. Yes, the yardage has been there – but that is a function of the new defensive rules, constantly playing from behind and his receivers, particularly rookie RB Saquon Barkley getting some hefty yards after the catch. Barkley was phenomenal with 13/130/1 on the ground and 12 targets for 9/99/0. Odell Beckham Jr is clearly beside himself and we could see some on the field theatrics as soon as Monday when the Giants head to Atlanta to play the Falcons.
NE 43 vs KC 40 this game lived up to the hype with the quarterbacks combining for 692 yards and five touchdowns. Rookie RB Sony Michel led all rushers with 24/106/2 and Kareem Hunt had a magnificent game with 10/80/0 on the ground and 6 targets for 5/105/1 receiving and he appears to be back in coach Andy Reid’s aerial attack.
GB 33 vs SF 30 once again QB Aaron Rodgers led a furiously fantastic comeback as the Packers nipped the 49ers at the wire. The shocker here was Alfred Morris getting NADA and fourth year man Raheem Mostert nearly tripling his career rushing numbers with 12/87/0. Matt Brieda continued to be effective despite playing yet again through injuries and Marquise Goodwin was outstanding with 5 targets going for 4/126/2 and we can consider pairing him with quarterback C.J. Beathard as a contrarian move this week in tournaments against the not as fearsome as we first thought LA Rams.
Week 7
Thursday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals +1.5 / 42.5 o/u
As we have seen in other “low projected games” there still is a fair amount of strategy as a well put together roster can be very effective, even without the eye-popping numbers that have become more common place.
Denver Broncos 22.0 implied point total
Quarterback – Case Keenum has topped 320 passing yards each of the last two weeks with a pair of touchdowns and an interception in each contest. This will not be an easy matchup with the Cardinals ranking in the top third of the Football Outsiders Passing DVOA list and also in the top third of the league for fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Keenum received a “vote of confidence” from coach Vance Joseph this week, but we know that often is the first sign of a pending switch. It may be Chad Kelly time sooner rather than later. Keenum checks in as a QB25-27 this week, just remember that four teams are on a bye – so he is in the projection dregs and still priced as the third most expensive player on DraftKings and topping the list on FanDuel.
There is definitely a reason (he is one of two starting QBs in the player pool) and strategy (a lot of other gamers may want to get cute and leave him off their rosters) to playing him.
Over their last three games the Cardinals have allowed C.J. Beathard to pass for 349/2/2 but held Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson to a combined 405/1/1. Decisions, decisions…
Running Back
Phillip Lindsay looks to be the most productive option, however, he is effectively still splitting snaps with Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker. Lindsay 19 targets 14/113/1 and Booker 20 targets 15/127/0 are relatively equal in the receiving game and Lindsay 61/346/1 and Freeman 58/272/3 are similar in the rushing game. On DraftKings, Lindsay is by far the most expensive of this trio at $8,400 and Booker is a Discount Dandy at $3,000 with Freeman a meh $5,600.
Over on FanDuel they are grouped closer together, but that site has a “higher” floor for salaries: Lindsay $12,000 Freeman $10,500, Booker $8,500. On both sites when taking into account price and projected production, I prefer them as Lindsay, Booker and Freeman.
Wide Receiver
Emmanuel Sanders has been nearly as productive 55 targets 40/501/2 with two carries for 53 yards and a score as Demaryius Thomas 43 targets for 28/330/3 and Cortland Sutton 30 targets 13/218/1 combined – yes, a little hyperbolic, but closer to the truth than not. Deservedly, Sanders is the second highest priced option on DraftKings and the third on FanDuel. There is a strong argument to making him our Captain/MVP as a differentiation play from those choosing David Johnson or one of the quarterbacks.
Thomas and Sutton are viable plays with the Denver passing game clearly focused on the trio at this position. Through six games, Adam Thielen 123 – Wk6 and teammates Brandon Cooks 159, Robert Woods 81 – Wk2 are the only wide receivers topping 63 yards against the Cardinals.
Tight End
This is not an easy matchup as Arizona is allowing opposing tight ends 5.0 targets, 3.7 receptions, 43.8 yards with two total touchdowns through six weeks. Jeff Heuerman has been in on nearly 80% of the snaps in the three games since Jake Butt was injured and Matt LaCosse has seen his snaps ticking up at 15, 19 and 27. In all honesty, I think I would rather roll with Devontae Booker over this duo on DraftKings and I am really not interested in them on FanDuel.
Defense/Special Teams
Arizona is allowing just over two sacks per game this season with six interceptions and four fumbles. Rookie Josh Rosen has been sacked 7 times in his three starts, with four coming last weekend in Minnesota.
Arizona Cardinals 20.5 implied team total
Quarterback
Former UCLA stalwart Josh Rosen has his work cut out for him this week as a home-dog, though it seems the Broncos #8 DVOA passing defense may be a little bit of a mirage with their home field advantage in the Mile High City and facing a somewhat mediocre group beginning in Week 1 vs SEA Russell Wilson 298/3/2, vs OAK Derek Carr 288/1/0, at BAL Joe Flacco 277/1/0, vs KC Patrick Mahomes 304/1/0 at NYJ Sam Darnold 198/3/1 and vs LAR Jared Goff 201/0/1.
I think we have made a case for taking both quarterbacks in this game as they do look like the most productive options – even though we would NEVER EVEN CONSIDER either signal-caller on a regular slate.
Running Back
David Johnson will likely approach 80%+ on both sites with the way salaries are working out and this is a fantastic matchup against the Broncos who have essentially the worst rushing defense in the league. Sadly, the Cardinals are countering with one of the worst rushing offenses and a coaching staff that seems completely oblivious to utilizing their best player. At least he has been on the field for 93% of the snaps over the last three weeks as opposed to approximately 78% over the first three weeks.
Arizona running backs not named David Johnson have combined for 17/46/0 rushing and 12 targets for 11/53/0 receiving on the year.
Wide Receiver
The Cardinals are averaging 28.3 passing attempts per game which is pretty much THE WORST and does not allow for many receiving points. Everything has been concentrated with Christian Kirk 31 targets for 25/311/1, Larry Fitzgerald 35 targets for 22/215/0 and some wasted throws to Chad Williams 22 targets 5/58/1 among the receivers with David Johnson and Ricky Seals-Jones getting the rest.
Tight End
Speaking of Ricky Seals-Jones he has seen six targets in four games this year and 31 for 15/192/1 on the season and is a viable cheapie if we are touchdown hunting and boy will we be in this matchup.
Defense/Special Teams
The Cardinals are in play as the home team and while Denver has yet to allow a fumble, they have tossed 8 interceptions and given up 15 sacks including 10 in their last three games. All we need is a sack/strip fumble/score to break open this likely snoozer.
Summary
There is going to be more overlap with players than usual because on both sites it is not much of a stretch at all to get David Johnson along with Case Keenum and Josh Rosen – plus on DraftKings you can make it a quartet with Emmanuel Sanders. Please note that we will not be alone in this construction.
This would actually be best suited for 50/50s and even H2H games in the hopes that others make some errors. In the tournaments, we are going to need to make some uncomfortable picks, leave a fair amount of our salary cap unused and get creative with our Captain/MVP designation in order to differentiate our lineups.
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
- David Johnson (we are not going to be alone with this decision and please be aware that utilizing him as our Captain/MVP is not going to be much differentiation – that is okay, we just need to be creative with a couple of our other selections)
- Josh Rosen (both QBs are bottom five for the week, essentially they are higher than rookie Sam Darnold and 14th year veteran backup Derek Anderson who is starting for the Bills. Rosen gets the nod over Case Keenum only because he is unlikely to be pulled during the game for performance)
- Case Keenum (he is going to touch the ball on nearly every play for Denver barring an appearance from Chad Kelly)
- Emmanuel Sanders (should be out of the slot more often than not and that means a likelihood of avoiding CB Patrick Peterson)
- Phillip Lindsay (the most versatile of the Broncos running backs)
- Christian Kirk (more upside than Larry Fitzgerald and a reasonable price)
- Cortland Sutton (in the mix enough and priced low enough, particularly on DraftKings that he provides some much needed flexibility)
- Larry Fitzgerald (yes, he is boring and finally looks to officially be in decline – he is still the co-WR1 from an opportunity and production standpoint)
- Brandon McManus (this could be a kicking heavy game if neither team is able to make hay in the red zone)
- Cardinals D/ST (do you really think Case Keenum will go unscathed in this contest?)
- Demaryius Thomas (he is unlikely to make any of my squads – the price and the thought that at some point Sutton is going to erode some of his opportunities is too much risk to bear – particularly if CB Patrick Peterson is going to be covering him)
- Broncos D/ST (would be higher if they were at home, still a great matchup against a rookie quarterback)
- Phil Dawson (he debuted in 1999, is 43 years-old and in his 20th season)
- Devontae Booker (this is strictly a price play and the alternative would be…)
- Jeff Heuerman (if you are not a fan of Booker, you can give Heuerman a look as your Discount Dandy – we are hoping for a touchdown with either guy)
- Royce Freeman (while he is not involved much in the passing game, if this matchup stays close – there is a better chance he will see 12-15 rushing attempts with upside should the Broncos get out to a lead)
- Ricky Seals-Jones (pricing has me giving the bump to Booker/Heuerman on DraftKings, while on FanDuel I would list Seals-Jones first where the three of them are closely bunched on the pricing list)
- Chase Edmonds (should see whatever RB snaps are vacated by David Johnson)
- Jermaine Gresham, Matt LaCosse and J.J. Nelson (looking for a lottery ticket)
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
