NFL Prime Time – Week 8 Thursday Night Football (FREE)

Week 8 Thursday Night Football

Greetings Gamers, this week we have a mixed bag with the featured Prime Time games beginning on Thursday with the Miami Dolphins at the Houston Texans with a relatively uninspiring 44.5 projected point total.  Sunday Night Football is shaping up to be a scoring fest with the Minnesota Vikings hosting the New Orleans Saints with an outstanding 52.5 projected points and then on Monday Night we have the Buffalo Bills taking on the visiting New England Patriots who are two touchdown road favorites.

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Week 7 Summary

DEN 45 vs ARZ 10 – The Broncos laid the smack down on Thursday Night Football highlighted by two INT-TD returns against the Cardinals.  Outside of the Denver D/ST it was Emmanuel Sanders who had 7 targets for 6/102/1 and threw a 28 yard touchdown pass to Cortland Sutton.  Phillip Lindsay had 97 combined yards and a touchdown and Brandon McManus mad all 7 of his kicks (1/1 FG / 6/6 PAT).

LAC 20 vs TEN 19 – The London Game was not particularly enthralling, even with Melvin Gordon being a last minute inactive and Austin Ekeler (12/42/0 and 5/26/0) getting the majority of the work.  Early on Philip Rivers hooked up with Tyrell Williams for a 75 yard score, but after that it was dull and boring across the board.

KC 45 vs CIN 10 – If you were fired up for Joe Mixon (like I was) then it was a long night of mediocre football.  The key to the Sunday Night single game action was clearly pairing Patrick Mahomes (358/4/1 and 4/45/0) with Kareem Hunt (15/86/1 and 5/55/2) who had three scores and then using a discount dandy like Spencer Ware (8/59/0 and 3/30/0) who had ample mop-up duty. A.J. Green with 14 targets for 7/117/0 was really the only decent player on the Bungles.

ATL 23 vs NYG 20 – this was a pretty boring game until the 27 points in the final frame.  Saquon Barkley was phenomenal yet again qith 14/43/1 on the ground and seeing 10 targets for 9/51/0 through the air.  Odell Beckham 11 targets for 8/143/1 and Sterling Shepard 8 targets for 5/167/0 were aided by the fourth quarter action dragging Eli Manning 399/1/0 into semi-relevance with the extra yards.  Julio Jones was decent, but not spectacular for the Falcons with 12 targets for 9/104/0 giving him 812 receiving yards on the season and still no touchdowns.  Second year man Marvin Hall from the University of Washington who normally sees action on special teams – caught all three of his targets for 63 yards and a touchdown, making him the most effective Captain option on DraftKings for his discounted price tag.

Week 8

Thursday Night Football

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans -7.5 / 44.5

While most gamers will be tuning in to see how their survivor pool selection of Houston works out, this is actually an interesting game for the “single slate” contests because there are just so many uncertainties – while I will be stepping outside my normal practice for a projected slog-fest of just focusing on some single entry contests and/or “cash” games and rolling with some low-dollar multi-entry action – I do not know if I will actually be able to bring myself to watch this game live.

Miami Dolphins 18.5 implied point total

Quarterback – Brock Osweiler has this last appearance in BROCKtober and it is against the team that gave him a $73M contract ($37M guaranteed over the first two seasons) that then traded him after 15 appearances where he tallied 2,957 yards, 15 TDs, 16 INTs and 3 fumbles.  Houston had to package him with a second round pick to get the Cleveland Browns to take the erstwhile signal-caller in a salary dump deal.

Over the ensuing two seasons, Osweiler has made 9 appearances (6 for Denver last season in his second tour with the organization and 3 so far this season for the Dolphins).  The Texans have a solid pass rush with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney and they are in the top third for pass coverage.  Additionally, Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills will miss this game and they have just over 30% of the total targets (74 of 203) for Miami and that represents 57% (74 of 129) for the entire wide receiver corps (we could go with the early Halloween joke of wide receiver corpses).

Because he is one of two starting quarterbacks in our one game player pool, he is worthy of consideration – however, this just feels like a bad idea (of course Sunday night’s “good idea” to use Joe Mixon in the Captain/MVP slot turned into a nightmare, so of course anything can happen).

Running Back – Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore continue to cap the upside of their backfield counterpart, but one would like to think that with the limited wide receivers, that this duo will see additional work in the passing game with checkdowns from Brock Osweiler.  The Texans check in with the top rushing DVOA defense according to Football Outsiders.  Houston has been in the middle of the pack from a fantasy perspective allowing 22.4 carries for 74.9 rushing yards and 8.7 targets for 6.3 receptions and 45.1 receiving yards per game, but along with five combined touchdowns.  On FanDuel Frank Gore at $8,000 makes much more sense than Kenyan Drake at $14,000 the same is true on DraftKings where the duo is priced at $3,600 and $7,000 respectively – if Gore begins to pick up traction in the other single game content provided throughout the DFS World on Thursday, then the direct leverage pivot is of course to go with Drake.

Wide Receiver – Danny Amendola deserves strong consideration for our Captain slot on DraftKings where his modified $10,200 price tag gives us greater flexibility in our lineup construction and the 1.5x scoring lift on the total of the Dolphins reception leader in the absence of many other clear options is going to be nice.  On FanDuel we need to focus more on touchdowns with the “half point”-PPR scoring format and the salary discount from Amendola’s $10,000 to DeVante Parker $6,500 and Jakeem Grant $6,000 makes more sense.

Speaking of Parker, last weekend his agent called out the Miami organization for having him inactive, even though he was healthy – now he is going to be starting just five days later due to injuries to Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills.  Keep in mind that the NFL trade deadline is 4pm ET on Tuesday, October 30th so this is the one chance the Dolphins will have to “showcase” their disgruntled pass catcher who saw 3 targets in Week 3 and one in Week 6.

Jakeem Grant may be small (depending on your source he is between 5’6″-5’8″ and 160-170 lbs) but he is fast – again depending on what you want to buy into, he has an official 40-yard dash time of 4.38 seconds, but at the Texas Tech pro day, he allegedly had something in the 4.1 range – albeit via handheld stopwatches as opposed to the laser timing at the official NFL Combine.  In his three year career, he has scored six touchdowns on 29 receptions totaling 419 yards.  Additionally he does return both punts and kickoffs for the Dolphins and has notched one score with each return type this season.  Miami is going to need to capture lightening in a bottle, so how about focusing on someone who is lightening quick?!

Tight End – Mike Gesicki has 17 of the 29 total targets for the position across 7 games for 12/132/0 and Nick O’Leary has been very productive (for his price) over the last two weeks with 7 targets for 6/72/1 after being picked up as a free agent after being released by Buffalo.  Throw in the fact that his grandfather is Jack Nicklaus and we have ourselves a ready-made narrative (along with a reasonable salary on DraftKings $2,600 and FanDuel $5,500 if we are doing a little touchdown hunting.  Over the last two games, he has outsnapped Gesicki 2-to-1 so that makes this decision easy for me.

Defense/Special Teams – On the season the Texans have allowed 26 sacks (tied for 3rd on the season with Buffalo and behind only Cleveland and San Francisco), 7 interceptions and 4 fumbles over seven games.  While the Dolphins have mustered only 11 sacks on the season (29th) if we take away the 7 Week 4 sacks the Colts had against Houston and the 7 the Bills had in Week 6, those teams would be at 14 and 11 respectively, which is not too far off where the Dolphins are right now.  This of course is NOT predictive – but it does help with some perspective.  Miami is definitely in play, even on the road as a salary saving option on DraftKings in what could be a game with a sparse touchdown total.

Houston Texans 26.0 implied point total

Quarterback – Deshaun Watson is listed as having a chest injury, please note that this is mostly likely bruised ribs and a bruise lung – YIKES! – his coach has openly stated the last two weeks that he is playing hurt, so keep that in mind.  On a positive note, Watson is being projected as a QB3-7 this week by most systems and with the Dolphins pass defense being shaky at best, he can be considered as the top scoring option.  If you are only building one or two lineups in the single game contest, then “fading” Watson in the hopes of a limited game, seems like the savvy strategy.  Over the last two weeks he has passed for 139 yards in Jacksonville (last weekend 12-24, 1 TD 0 INT) and for 177 yards against Buffalo (15 for 25, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 7 sacks) but in the four outings prior to that he topped 370+ thrice and was at 310 yards passing in the fourth game.  Situations like this are what makes this particular single game slate ripe with intrigue.

Running Back – Lamar Miller played the first four seasons of his career in Miami before joining Houston for the 2016 campaign.  We know that he is a “do everything” back and the Dolphins are allowing the fourth most fantasy points on the season to opposing running backs.

Alfred Blue is the backup and he has seen about 40% of the snaps over the last three games that Miller has been healthy (he missed Week 5) and with his work in the offense, he very well could be the lucky running back who is on the field for a red zone drive.

Wide Receiver – DeAndre Hopkins is third in the league with 101.o receiving yards per game on 71 targets for 47 receptions and four touchdowns and is very much deserving of top consideration.  Will Fuller has been dealing with hamstring and hip issues, but he should be a full go on Thursday night and we know his proclivity for scoring touchdowns in games where Watson is under center.

Keke Coutee has been ruled out with a hamstring injury of his own, so that will move rookie, undrafted free agent Vyncint Smith onto the game day roster for Thursday, though I would actually prefer Alfred Blue on DraftKings at a similar price point and Nick O’Leary on FanDuel if I am hunting for a touchdown.

Tight End – Ryan Griffin is out again with an illness. While he does have 25 of the 45 tight end targets The Jordans (Thomas and Akins) have also been active each of the seven games this season, but with this trio chopping most of the production and other available discounted options, they are only MEGA-MME candidates in my humble opinion.

Defense/Special Teams – Well, while we won’t be alone in this assessment, the Texans D/ST is absolutely viable on DraftKings as our Captain option.  On the season Miami has allowed 15 sacks (#18) and their 12 turnovers is #9 overall.  Conversely Houston has 13 takeaways which is good for #9 and their 19 sacks are tied for #8.

Awesemo’s Showdown Rankings provide an additional look at how to value the player pool – from Alex himself and he is in the middle of quite a Showdown heater on Draftkings >>> premium members click here

Summary – Because there are not expected to be many touchdowns in this game and there are several viable candidates on each team that are in play for those fleeting opportunities, this “single game” slate feels like a good opportunity to drop down a little from your normal contest entry prices and submit more varied lineup.  In “cash” games it would make sense to build around Hopkins, Watson and Miller as they have the best point projections and then we can work in the defenses, kickers, Amendola, etc. to round things out for a safer “floor” build and hope our opponents take on more risk and are not rewarded for it.

Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)

1. Danny Amendola (DraftKings Captain for the differentiation, price and full-PPR scoring – no need to use him as the MVP on FanDuel where price is not a consideration – he is still very much in play there in the non-bonus roster slots)
2. Lamar Miller (involved in all aspects of the offense and not entirely dependent on the dinged up Deshaun Watson)
3. DeAndre Hopkins (healthy and the biggest touchdown threat on the field and has 12 red zone targets on the season)
4. Deshaun Watson (with his injury, the short week and Houston being touchdown+ favorites at home, just how much will he have to do?)
5. Will Fuller V (we are banking on him finding the end zone)
6. Houston D/ST (yes, I am going here for the price savings and upside – in tournaments they can be considered as a differentiation play in the Captain slot)
7. Brock Osweiler (again, he is one of two starting quarterbacks in the player pool and dammit, it is BROCKtober)
8. Frank Gore (for the discount, I prefer him on both sites to…)
9. Kenyan Drake (why does this coaching staff seem to hate him so much?! First Jay Ajayi and now Frank Gore are cutting into his upside and volume)
10. Jakeem Grant (on the season he has scored via punt return, kickoff return and receiving in limited opportunities and now both Albert Wilson and  Kenny Stills are out of action)
11. DeVante Parker (squeaky wheel/last chance showcase for a trade)
12. Ka’imi Fairbairn (the former UCLA Bruin has had multiple field goal attempts in every game this season and he is 17 for 20 along with being a perfect 14 of 14 on PATs)
13. Alfred Blue (look an in-game injury from Lamar Miller is not far-fetched and we know that Blue is just as capable in high leverage situations)
14. Miami D/ST (again, Watson has been sacked 7 times in two different games this season and a Pick-6 or even a Jakeem Grant kick return is always lurking in the shadows)
15. Nick O’Leary and Mike Gesicki (I prefer the former, even though he has only been with the organization for a month and played in just two games)
16. Pick a Jordan (Akins gets the slightest of nods for me over Thomas if I am in a penny pinching scenario)
17. Sammie Coates (if active, at least he has more time in the system than…)
18. Vyncint Smith (while he will be on the field in three-receiver sets, there is not much of a track record to suggest he will get many opportunities with Houston prepared to sit on a lead and milk the clock in order to protect Watson from further injury)
19. Jason Sanders (three games this season with no field goal attempts and two with a single attempt – he is 6 for 7, but the lack of opportunities is frightening and the 17 for 18 on PATs is no consolation – anything can happen – but through seven weeks it hasn’t so far)

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac