NFL Prime Time – Week 9 Sunday Night Football (FREE)

Week 9 Sunday Night Football

Greetings Gamers! We are blessed with some very exciting afternoon games and the fun does not end there with a marquee matchup on Sunday Night Football.

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Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots -6.0 / 57.0

This should be an outstanding fantasy game and we can target participants on all slates in all formats.  The Patriots boast the highest implied point total of the week at 31.5 and the Packers are well up in the ranks at #7 with a 25.5 implied point total of their own in this matchup.

Green Bay Packers 25.5 implied point total

Quarterback – on the season, New England is allowing the seventh most fantasy points to opposing signal callers and that should come as no surprise since they are generally playing with a lead and their foes typically have to abandon the run early (#4 with 40.8 attempts allowed per game).  This dovetails nicely with Aaron Rodgers topping 40 attempts in 5 of 7 games so far this season and he is third in the league at 326 passing yards per game.

The Patriots have the #17 Passing DVOA Defense and even with DB Stephon Gilmore patrolling the secondary, Rodgers should have plenty of opportunities to rack up the fantasy goodness.

Running BackTy “Butterfingers” Montgomery was traded to the Baltimore Ravens at the trade deadline, so that eliminates one of the distractions for Coach Mike McCarthy and gives us a glimmer of hope that he will work Aaron Jones into the offense more frequently than he has so far this season.

Jones sat out the first two games this year while serving a suspension and when he returned he was part of a three-back committee with the aforementioned Montgomery (situational play) and Jamaal Williams (the “trusted” option).  Last week was the first time Jones surpassed a 40% snap rate – just doubling he season average with 62% so we can hope the trend continues.

For the purpose of this analysis, let’s remove the first two weeks of Williams’ production while Jones was on the shelf:

Player Snaps Rushing Targets Receiving
Williams 131 32/127/1 4.0 ypc 11 5/45/0
Jones 119 44/274/2 6.2 ypc 8 6/41/0

as you can see, things have been relatively even and though as DFS gamers we want the most talented option (Jones) to win out, there is still a case to be made for the “trustworthy” option (Williams) in the single game contests… if only Coach McCarthy had a more reliable track record, we would be able to make a more informed speculation.

Wide Receiver – the sun rises and sets with Davante Adams as the undisputed lead option in the Packers receiving corps.  The former Fresno State University star has been the apple of Aaron Rodgers’ eye checking in at #8 for targets on the season with 78 which he has turned into 52 receptions, 687 yards for a robust 13.3 ypc and he has the third most receiving scores in the league with six.

Injuries to both Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb have hamstrung the Packers depth (cwidt), though they have also allowed University of South Florida WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling to emerge and lay claim to the WR2 job and he has been solid over the last three games with 21 targets for 12/216/2 – though he did see his snap count cut in half last week (31) with the return of Allison (30) and Cobb (24), so there is both risk and upside for this trio.

Tight End – Jimmy Graham was on the field last week for 88% of the snaps, which was his highest mark over the last month, sadly he matched his season low with just four targets on his way to one lonely catch for 21 yards.  He absolutely has to be considered against the Patriots lead-legged linebacking crew and prior to last week’s dud against the Rams he had 20 targets for 11/180/0 in the two games leading into that matchup.

Defense/Special Teams – as I have mentioned in every other prime time analysis involving the Patriots, Tom Terrific is tough to target with defenses as he rarely takes a sack (11 in 8 games) and even though he is on pace to throw the most interceptions of his career, that is still just shy of one per game.  New England is allowing 25.3 yards per kickoff return and the likely 3-4 potentially returnable opportunities may not yield the touchdown we need to justify this play.

 

New England Patriots 31.5 implied points

Quarterback – Tom Brady #Analysis.  Okay as much as I probably could stop right there – let’s cover a few things.  Green Bay is middle-of-the-pack against the pass with the #15 DVOA per Football Outsiders and they have been solid at pressuring opposing quarterbacks with 23 sacks (#7), though they have only 5 INTs and 4 FUMs.

Brady checks in as a QB3-5 in most projection systems so he is a player to target in all formats and slates.

Running Back – Sony Michel has been limited in practice after missing Monday’s game in Buffalo but there is a strong chance he plays.  We know he is limited in the passing game, but he will be called upon near the goal line and if you think Coach Bill Belichick is going to focus on the running game, then the rookie running back is sure to be in the thick of things (21 red zone opportunities T1 with James White on the team).

James White has been my favorite option in every Prime Time single game contest so far and I see no reason for that to change, particularly on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring and when we keep in mind that he has scored a touchdown or topped 80 combined yards in every game this season – we can feel some safety with his “high floor” production.

Wide Receiver – since his return from suspension/injury in Week 5 it has been all Julian Edelman (34 targets) and everyone else (50 combined targets) in the receiving corps.  Despite late Monday afternoon reports that Josh Gordon would be missing some of the first quarter for disciplinary reasons, Coach Belichick refuted this news.  Who knows what is really happening, but with his track record anything is in play with Gordon from a multi-TD game to dressing and not stepping on the field.

Gordon is clearly one of the top four options on offense (White, Edelman, Gronkowski) and he has game breaking upside, which should only be enhanced with the greatest quarterback of all time throwing him the ball.

Cordarrelle Patterson did get 10 carries as the backup running back, though he only has seen one target in the last three games and generally just plays on special teams.  He is dealing with a neck injury, so his status is questionable. Philip Dorsett also has seen just one target over the last three games and he is a potential inactive risk when everyone is healthy.

Chris Hogan has been a disappointment this season in all formats, but he is still taking the field on two-thirds of the snaps and anything can happen and this particularly magnified as we try to analyze these single game slates.

Tight End – Rob Gronkowski was on the field for 89% of the snaps after missing Week 7 with back spasms.  He has not scored a touchdown since the season opener and his 3/43/0 were his second lowest figures this season.  That said, he is a game breaker and we know that soooooooooooooo many of our fellow gamers have written him off by this point – a GRONKSMASH outing still could occur at any time.

Defense/Special Teams – Week 4 against the Buffalo Bills was the only time the Packers have allowed less than three sacks in a game.  They have been very protective of the ball with just 9 total giveaways (7 fumbles and 2 interceptions).

 

Summary – this should be an adventure for the single game contests and with the top options for both teams appropriately priced, we will have several decision points, particularly on FanDuel.  For our DraftKings roster construction we do have a little more flexibility with the kickers in play and each week some discount dandy darts are viable with the full-PPR scoring format.

This is an excellent tournament opportunity for mixing and matching as there are a variety of scenarios in play that could see new fewer than eight players with potential 2-TD upside (White, Adams, Edelman, Michel, Jones, Gronkowski, Hogan, Graham, etc.) and in “cash” games we can take a more traditional approach on DraftKings with both QBs, the kickers and then two other options that strike our fancy.

Awesemo’s Showdown Rankings provide an additional look at how to value the player pool – from Alex himself and he is in the middle of quite a Showdown heater on Draftkings >>> premium members click here

Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)

  1. James White (once again he will be my priority – yes, there is absolute merit to either of the quarterbacks on FanDuel where we do not have to pay a premium for the MVP multiplier, but on DraftKings we can absolutely make viable lineups with White as the Captain and working both Brady AND Rodgers and pair one of them with their top WR/TE – 8 total touchdowns and 74 targets for 55/459/6 is hard to pass up in full-PPR scoring)
  2. Aaron Rodgers (he last faced New England in November 2014, during his second MVP campaign – that is forever ago from an NFL perspective but for fun Rodgers had 368 passing and a rookie by the name of Davante Adams had a breakout game with 11 targets for 6/121/0 back when Cobb and Jordy Nelson were a feared duo)
  3. Tom Brady (he has topped 320+ passing yards in three of his last four games and he likely will make that four on Sunday night)
  4. Davante Adams (even drawing the focus of the Patriots defense, he should still approach double digit targets and we know he has a knack for reaching pay dirt)
  5. Julian Edelman (particularly on DraftKings for the full-PPR scoring, he is also a stellar choice on FanDuel)
  6. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (a nice pivot, particularly if both Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb play again as there is an excellent chance he will be lost in the shuffle and fall down the desirability list for other gamers)
  7. Aaron Jones (he is the seventh most expensive option on FanDuel which will make it tough for gamers to pull the trigger, particularly if they can talk themselves into Jamaal Williams – on DraftKings he is the 12th most expensive option and will be very popular, with good reason)
  8. Jamaal Williams (following on the thought in the last blurb, just how many gamers will actually pass on Jones? Heck how many will realize that the “J.Willams” who is $2,000 on DraftKings is the co-RB1 for the Packers?  The salary savings is just as clear on FanDuel and the only realistic cheapies there come down to Williams $7,000 and Marquez Valdes-Scantling $7,500 with the dinged up Randall Cobb $8,500 and Geronimo Allison $8,000 as the alternatives)
  9. Sony Michel (if he is active and starting, we have to assume full health and missing the game last week, not being active in the passing attack and the Big Red Q next to his name could have gamers making other plans)
  10. Josh Gordon (the talent is undeniable and as long as he can keep his inner-Ebby Calvin “Nuke” Laloosh in check, he could be the slate-breaker)
  11. Stephen Gostkowski (while he has had 5+ field goal attempts in two of this last three, he had but a single opportunity in four of his eight outings this season – 17 of 19 FGs and 26 of 26 PATs is very nice and he will be popular on DraftKings – there is some merit to using him as the Captain in the hopes he gets a handful of FGAs and then nailing the other upgrades afforded by the salary saving gambit)
  12. Rob Gronkowski (the talent is there, but we need him and Coach Belichick to turn it on before the playoffs if he is going to be a productive DFS option)
  13. Jimmy Graham (if Cobb and Allison both were to miss this game, I would move Graham into the mix with the Green Bay running backs listed above – we do have to remember that this is his first season with Rodgers and the lone TD and just half a dozen red zone targets are starting to become worrisome)
  14. Mason Crosby (the veteran has been a perfect 6 for 6 on FGAs and 6 for 6 on PATs in the two games since his dreadful 1 for 5 FGA and 0 for 1 PAT debacle in Week 5 against Detroit)
  15. Chris Hogan (he will have one OUTSTANDING $%*&! WHY DIDN’T I PLAY HIM?!? game between now and the playoffs – good luck figuring out when it will happen)
  16. Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison (with the recent hamstring injuries and Allison actually being listed as doubtful at the time of this writing Saturday morning – I am willing to look elsewhere – so will most others, which of course keeps this duo worthy of consideration if they are active and not limited)
  17. New England D/ST (only because Rodgers has been sacked so many times)
  18. Green Bay D/ST (only because I am obligated to list them)
  19. Cordarrelle Patterson (if he has a clean bill of health with regards to his neck injury AND in the unlikely event that Sony Michel is out for a second game – then we can consider him at this ranking)
  20. Phillip Doresett, Lance Kendricks, Equanimeous St. Brown and Kenjon Barner

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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