Week 9 Thursday Night Football
Greetings Gamers! If there ever was a night to curry favor from your significant other, this might be the game to skip (don’t forget we have LOTS OF HOLIDAY GAMES coming up and there will be time to use our recently earned get out of jail free card later this month).
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Week 8 Recap
HOU 42 vs MIA 23 the surprise was Deshaun Watson who somehow managed to throw for FIVE TDs on just 20 pass attempts – heck, he had more scores than incompletions. Lamar Miller 18/133/1 was solid, Jordan Thomas 4/29/2 was an early surprise until DeAndre Hopkins came through with a pair of scores late for a 6/82/2 night and Will Fuller V went 5/124/1 but suffered a knee injury that will have him out until the beginning of next preseason at the earliest with a torn ACL. DeVante Parker is one to keep an eye on with all the injuries to the Dolphins wide receiver corps as he saw 9 targets for 6/134/0 and Kenyan Drake continued the chalk parade with 95 combined yards and two touchdowns.
NO 30 at MIN 20 the Saints were not very exciting as they controlled the entire game, with just 164 passing yards and a score and 106 rushing yards and another score. The NO D/ST had a Pick-6 in the third quarter and Will Lutz contributed three field goals. Kirk Cousins was who we thought he was with 359/2/1 as was Adam Thielen 7/103/1 and Stefon Diggs 10/119/1 with Latavius Murray seeing a surprising 6 targets for 5/39/0 and adding 13/56/1 on the ground in an otherwise dull game.
NE 25 at BUF 6 was all about James White who was 8/15/1 on the ground and 10/79/0 receiving, Julian Edelman saw 10 targets for 9/104/0 with 2 carries for 15 yards and the surprise was Cordarrelle Patterson getting 10 carries for 38 yards. Tom Terrific topped 300+ yards but no touchdowns made things a mess. For the Bills somehow Nathan Peterman ended up in the game (Derek Anderson 290/0/1 suffered a concussion) and LeSean McCoy got it down with 6/82/0 through the air in an otherwise less than awesome battle.
Week 9
Thursday Night Football
Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers -3.0 / 46.0
Oakland Raiders 21.5 implied point total
Quarterback – Derek Carr had his best game of the season allowing no interceptions for just the third time and going an economical 21 for 28 with 244 yards and 3 aerial scores adding a fourth on the ground which doubled as his first career rushing touchdown. The 49ers passing defense is a mediocre at best #23 per Football Outsiders DVOA metric and they are allowing the 12th most passing yards at 262.5 per game and the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. The one thing to keep in mind though is that San Francisco has allowed just 38 pass plays of 20+ yards this season which is T3 for the fewest in the league.
In Week 6, Aaron Rodgers rolled up the ‘Niners for 425 passing yards, but from Week 8 working backwards they have been stout Josh Rosen 252, Jared Goff 202, Josh Rosen 170 and Philip Rivers 250. This just gives us perspective that it is not going to be an easy night for Derek Carr, but he is one of two starting quarterbacks in the single contest player pool.
Running Back – duties were split with Doug Martin 13/72/0 on the ground and Jalen Richard getting 8/50/0 through the air. We can expect more of the same on Thursday night since despite allowing 10 touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, San Francisco has allowed just one 100 yard rusher (Melvin Gordon in Week 4) and only two running backs have caught more than six passes in a game with Melvin Gordon getting 7/55/1 in that Week 4 game and Theo Riddick hauling in 9/47/0 in Week 2.
The duo is priced appropriately on both sites with Richard being more expensive on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring and Martin leading the way on FanDuel with the half-PPR scoring – I prefer the more expensive option on the respective sites.
Wide Receiver – over the last three games, Amari Cooper had one target in Weeks 5 and 6 prior to the Week 7 bye and his trade to the Dallas Cowboys. During that three game stretch, Seth Roberts lead the receivers with 17 targets followed by Jordy Nelson 11, Martavis Bryant 6 and Brandon LaFell 4… after last week with Bryant ripping everyone’s heart out and showing it to them while it was still beating, it will be hard to go back to him after he saw a season low 7 snaps and no targets. Of course this means he is firmly in play as a differentiation option.
Overall on the season from a fantasy perspective the 49ers are allowing the 11th most points to wide receivers in full-PPR formats with a per game average of 20.5 targets for 12.1 receptions, 177.38 yards and 1.38 touchdowns.
Tight End – Jared Cook leads the Raiders with 48 targets this season and while he has been his typical Boom/Bust self, he has seen 5+ targets in all but two of his appearances and he has two games of 12+ on the year. All the other Oakland TEs combined have seen just one target in the last three games.
Defense/Special Teams – San Francisco has allowed at least 4+ sacks in five of their eight games this season and in three of their last four – 31 on the season is T2 with the New York Giants and just one behind the Cleveland Browns for the most allowed in the league. Additionally the 49ers have coughed up multiple turnovers in five of their eight games – we can roll the dice with the Raiders D/ST.
San Francisco 49ers 24.5 implied point total
Quarterback – keep an eye on news from the 49ers as quarterback C.J. Beathard is questionable with a sore wrist on his throwing arm and he is having trouble gripping the ball – sitting out practice on Monday and Tuesday UPDATE Thursday EVENING: Nick Mullens to start – C.J. Beathard to be backup. While he is expected to play, there is risk that he may not finish the game. With their current six game losing streak, it would not be the end of the world from a draft order perspective for undrafted rookie free agent Nick Mullens from Southern Miss to see some action or even 5th year veteran Tom Savage who joined the team after he was cut by the Saints earlier this season.
Running Back – surprise, surprise… Matt Breida is questionable yet again – sadly, I was among those who got cute last week looking to Raheem Mostert who had a few moments leading up to yet another zombie-like performance from Brieda limiting him to just two carries on 12 total snaps. Alfred Morris is a dart throw at best as he has seen 11, 20 and 1 snap in his three most recent games.
Wide Receiver – Marquise Goodwin does have Olympic caliber speed (remember, he was on Team USA in 2012 for the long jump) and while he does have four touchdowns on the season he has seen only 23 targets for 12/259/4 and if Beathard is limited by his wrist injury, it may be challenging for Goodwin to see any accurate deep targets. Pierre Garcon has been practicing in limited fashion this week after sitting out Week 8 with knee and shoulder maladies which leaves Kendrick Bourne who had a season high 10 targets last week, Trent Taylor (5 targets over the last two games) and the oft injured former University of Washington star Dante Pettis as the other choices.
Tight End – George Kittle leads the 49ers in targets with 57 including 9 in the red zone, receptions (37) and receiving yardage (584) and as long as his former college teammate Beathard is starting, he is a strong play.
Defense/Special Teams – somehow the Raiders did not allow a single sack last week after ceding 15 in the four previous games. They have suffered 12 takeaways on the season and since they are on the road, we can roll with San Francisco in the hopes of a big play to make us smile in an otherwise dull matchup.
Summary – with all of the many question marks and relatively low total, this is shaping up to be a single game slate where we can drop down in the entry fee level and work on some multi-entry strategy. If you feel particularly strongly about 3-4 plays – then the single entry 50/50s are a viable format with a solid return.
Awesemo’s Showdown Rankings provide an additional look at how to value the player pool – from Alex himself and he is in the middle of quite a Showdown heater on Draftkings >>> premium members click here
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
- Jared Cook (is a Boom/Bust option that tends to be someone gamers shy away from – even on a single game slate and since we need to aim for the stars, he is my preferred Captain/MVP option – if J. Beathard were healthy, then I think I would roll with George Kittle instead – and he is still a fine option if you are willing to shoulder the increased risk – and since this is a single game slate with GIGANTIC entry fields, why not go with…)
- George Kittle (see above)
- Derek Carr (while he has not been dynamic or even really had many splashy moments this season, this is a solid matchup and we know that QBs are at a premium since there are only two starters in the player pool – he will be wildly popular tonight)
C.J. Beathard (the wrist injury will not only scare us, but it will be a valid concern for our fellow gamers – fortunately most of Beathard’s best work is done with short passes to his RBs/TE and he can tuck the ball as evidenced by his 19/69/1 rushing line)Nick Mullens to start – C.J. Beathard to serve as backup – this will be the first live action for the undrafted free agent out of Southern Miss.- Matt Breida (another casualty of the Big Red Q tag, but aren’t we really numb to that by now – much like Breida’s injured body parts after their pre-game “medical treatments” – pure speculation of course)
- Kendrick Bourne (with all of the injury issues plaguing the other ‘Niners I am willing to cast my lot with one of the few healthy options – the 10 targets last week don’t hurt either)
- Doug Martin (will see only a couple of targets at most, but he is the most likely rushing option in the red zone)
- Jalen Richard (benefits from a “negative” game flow and he should be active in the passing game, but unlikely to see more than 2-3 rushing attempts)
- Seth Roberts (he really has been the “best” Oakland receiver over the last month, just know that expectations should be in the 3-4 receptions for 40ish yards and a 1 in 3 chance of reaching pay dirt – though in this game, that could be GOLD!)
- Jordy Nelson (yes, we are on a string of Raiders recommendations, but they are healthy… if you go an look at Nelson’s game logs, you won’t want to roster him – so just spare yourself the pain – also, it is not too late to take tonight off)
- Robbie Gould (one of the few healthy 49er options this week – he is at home and of course you can join in the DFS Twitter fun with the Solid Gould memes and jokes if you roster him and he knocks in a couple kicks)
- San Francisco D/ST (get the slight nod for being at home)
- Oakland D/ST (I actually have landed on them in the majority of my DraftKings lineups because there are so darn cheap and they have potential upside if Beathard has an early exit)
- Daniel Carlson (he is currently the kicker for the Raiders – don’t worry, you are not alone if you thought this was the name of the UPS driver for your neighborhood route)
- Nick Mullens (With the news he is starting – I would move him up to #10 on this list, so not much of an upgrade – if he gets the nod, this will be his first snaps in the NFL – he did end his career with Southern Miss as the Golden Eagles career passing leader in nearly every relevant category with his starts spanning four years and two bowl games – Tom Savage is the “veteran” backup, but he has already been cut twice this season – once by New Orleans and just a couple weeks ago by the 49ers as they needed the active roster spot to fill in for other injuries)
- Pierre Garcon (keep an eye on his active/inactive status)
- Brandon LaFell (was on the field for 92% of the snaps after missing Weeks 4-5-6 and he very well may have move ahead of Martavis Bryant in the pecking order)
- Martavis Bryant (just six targets in his last three games and snap counts of 7, 43 and 13 in reverse chronological order)
- Kyle Juszczyk (only for the daring on DraftKings where we can take advantage of the full-PPR scoring – though he was blanked in Week 8, he had at least two receptions in every game prior and topped 30 receiving yards three times)
- Marquise Goodwin (just know that in his six active games this season he is averaging 3.9 targets, 2.0 receptions and 43.2 receiving yards per game – the 3 rushing attempts for 7 yards and the 4 TDs are the highlights you remember and there has not been much else in the way of production – plus he has a dinged up quarterback and well below replacement level options are not going to have much of a chance of boosting his production if they see the field)
- Raheem Mostert (move him up to #5 if Breida is out and we can join The Masses in rostering him – if you want to play the gambit that Breida gets dinged up enough that he has to leave the game – this is the appropriate ranking for Mostert on both DraftKings and FanDuel)
- Alfred Morris (only if Matt Breida is ruled out pre-game and well, this is where I would still rank him)
- Trent Taylor (even with Pierre Garcon out last week, he was only on the field for 19 snaps – has returned both kicks and punts when pressed into duty by the many injuries afflicting the snake-bit San Francisco squad)
- J. Reed (SF special teamer who is averaging 30.2 yards per kick return and just missed taking one to the house with a 90 yarder), Dwayne Harris (OAK special teamer who has returned both kicks and punts), Dante Pettis (oft injured rookie who was electric in college and holds several NCAA punt return records), Garrett Celek (on the field a decent amount as the TE2, but rarely looked at)
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
