Week 10 is up the next and so far, it’s been a pretty quiet season in terms of massive upsets. Although many survivor pools are thinning out a little, most still have a healthy number of teams left as the second half of the season gets underway. Things can change rapidly, and with each week getting more difficult, we will be in for our toughest test yet to Survive Week 10. First a quick review of Week 9, and then we’ll get into some Week 10 NFL survivor picks.
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NFL Week 10 Survivor Pool Strategy
Week 10 is here and as I’ve mentioned in the past this is where Survivor pools really start to get difficult. By now you have burned a lot of top teams and combining that with shorter slates due to bye weeks makes it a tall task to move on. Ultimately it means forcing the issue and having to either back bad teams in good spots, or quality teams facing each other with spreads that aren’t lopsided. Luckily this week is a somewhat reprieve as there are some big spreads available to take.
What is a Survivor Pool?
There are several variations of the “Survivor Pool” format, but the most basic and common one is each week everyone in the pool has to select one team to win a game straight up not against the spread. If the team gets a win you survive the week and move on while if the team you pick ties or loses the game you are eliminated from the pool and its game over. The twist is that you can only use any team once so anyone you pick is no longer available for weeks in the future making it increasingly difficult as the season goes on. The pool ends when there is one player left who survives the longest and usually will take home a big pay day depending on the pool and the structure.
Week 10 Schedule
Chargers -1 at Raiders
Bills at Browns -3 Cardinals at Bucs -4.5 Falcons at Saints -13
Ravens -10 at Bengals Panthers at Packers -5 Lions at Bears -2.5
Dolphins at Colts -10.5 Rams -3.5 at Steelers Chiefs at Titans OTB
Giants -2 at Jets Vikings at Cowboys -3
*OTB – Off the board
Seahawks at Niners -6
Week 9 Survivor Recap
Not a ton of people had them due to the Dolphins game a few weeks back, but those that did had a smooth ride in Week 9. Buffalo closed as a double digit favorite at home against the Redskins and really were in control for most of the game. Washington decided to look to the future and start Dwayne Haskins which also helped the teams that backed the Bills. By now most people have either used the Bills or probably won’t get to them as the ideal spots have already passed.
San Francisco 49ers
This was my pick and I wasn’t thrilled about it. First off the Niners were on a short week and were also going on the road against a division opponent. That’s not the best situation, however they were still a big favorite and I had no other options on the Week 9 slate. Fortunately Jimmy G and co woke up after a slow start and managed to keep the perfect record intact. They were the top choice in pools with 40% of people going to San Fran and them surviving made Week 9 relatively uneventful.
Green Bay Packers
10% of people went to the Packers on the road against the Chargers, and that was the landmine of the week. A few people went YOLO with the Jets, but backing Green Bay was where most of the losses occurred on the Week 9. It was an understandable spot, especially if you already took teams like Buffalo or SF and that is what we have looming as the season continues.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Picks
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are getting healthy and now off a bye they are ready for their stretch run. They start with a home game against division foe in Atlanta, who is having a terrible season. Its not surprise to see them nearly a two touchdown favorite in the dome, and they make for the obvious choice in Week 10. The other positive is that most likely you have them available, so this week’s choices should be a little less stressful to you.
If you are going to the Superdome then it most likely means you land in Indy this week. The Colts have some issues and QB Jacoby Brissett is questionable after a knee injury, but they draw the Dolphins at home which is a premier spot. I truly never thought I would write this sentence, but the Dolphins come in having won a game at home against the Jets in Week 9. The Colts with or without Brissett are not the Jets and I feel comfortable rolling them out regardless of who is under center.
The Ravens were already a popular choice early in the year, so I would say its doubtful you have them left. I personally used them in Week 2 against Arizona and they got the job done in somewhat sloppy fashion. Coming off maybe the statement win of the entire league last week vs New England its hard not to like where this team is at. They go on the road, but it is against the only winless team in the league in Cincinnati.
My Week 10 NFL Survivor Pick: Saints
Teams I’ve already used (Week 1: Seahawks, Week 2: Ravens, Week 3: Cowboys, Week 4: Rams-L, Week 5: Eagles, Week 6: Patriots, Week 7: Bills, Week 8: Vikings, Week 9: Niners)
Most likely both the Saints and Colts will provided a passage to Week 11, but for me I’m taking the most obvious choice in New Orleans. Drew Brees is back in action and that stability at QB made the difference against the situation in Indy that we have to monitor. Both the Dolphins and Falcons are terrible and I really do not see either of them winning many road games this year so you have multiple options on this schedule. Peaking a little down the road we see that both the Colts and Saints probably don’t see a spread this high for the rest of the season, making them the clear 1A, 1B combo for Week 10.
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Good Luck everyone!