Week 15 Survivor Picks + Strategy: Ravens or Buccaneers

Week 15 is on deck and that means only three weeks to go in the NFL regular season. Some teams are eliminated and fighting for a top draft pick, while others are in the playoff hunt battling for first-round byes. We have a ton of key matchups on the schedule and from an NFL survivor standpoint, a few games to look into. By now if you are still alive, you only have a fraction of the teams remaining in your league and you don’t have the luxury of having most of the big names available.

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What is an NFL Survivor Pool?

There are several variations of the NFL Survivor Pool format, but the most basic and common one is each week everyone in the pool has to select one team to win a game straight up not against the spread. If the team wins, you survive the week and move on while if the team you pick ties or loses, are eliminated from the pool. The twist is that you can only use any team once so anyone you pick is no longer available for weeks in the future, making it increasingly difficult as the season goes on. The pool ends when there is one player left who survives the longest and usually, they take home a big pay day depending on the pool and the structure.

Week 15 Schedule

Thursday

Jets at Ravens -14.5                           

Sunday    

Patriots -9.5 at Bengals                 Buccaneers -3.5 at Lions                    Bears at Packers -4.5        

Texans at Titans -3                        Broncos at Chiefs -11                         Dolphins at Giants -3         

Eagles -5.5 at Redskins                  Seahawks -5.5 at Panthers                Jaguars at Raiders -6.5            

Browns -2.5 at Cardinals              Vikings -2.5 at Chargers                      Rams PK at Cowboys

Falcons at 49ers -11                       Bills at Steelers -2

Monday

Colts at Saints -9

Week 14 Survivor Recap

Green Bay Packers

35% of people went with the Packers at home against the Redskins and 100% of those people were rewarded. Green Bay took care of business in relatively easy fashion. The Packers were my choice and it was a luxury to have them available this late in the season with such a quality home game on the schedule. The Redskins are one of the worst teams in the league and they will be an opponent I will look to fade to close out these last few weeks. With only three weeks left, we aren’t going to have the luxury of picking most of the elite teams so it will be just as important to look at weak opponents.

Houston Texans

The Texans were also 35% of NFL survivor players’ choice as they were coming off that huge win at home against New England. They drew a great matchup at home against Drew Lock and the Broncos and came in as one of the biggest favorites on the entire slate. The result was an absolute demolition…by the Broncos. It was stunning to see the Texans look so terrible and they were never really in the game, falling behind 31-3 at one point. This was a major upset and could have ended some pools that only had a few people remaining. If not, it certainly took out a chunk of players and this was the landmine that you needed to avoid in Week 14.

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia actually wasn’t as popular as I thought they’d be, with the Vikings and Browns both getting more ownership. All three of these teams survived, but it was the Eagles on Monday Night Football who had to sweat it out. They rallied from 14 points down to force overtime against the Giants, and Carson Wentz was able to complete the comeback with an overtime touchdown. Survive and advance, that is all that matters, even though it’s hard to trust anyone in the NFC East right now.

Week 15 NFL Survivor Picks

Baltimore Ravens

This Thursday night game presents the best option we have on Week 15, with the Ravens at home against the Jets. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens need to avoid any upsets if they want to secure home field in the playoffs and the Jets are not going to present much challenge. The spread confirms that at north of two touchdowns. The only question is do you have the Ravens still available, or have you used them already with so many spots? Personally, I don’t have them left so I will be forced to look elsewhere.

New England Patriots

Here is a situation very similar to Baltimore, although the Patriots are on the road which is less ideal. Still, they need to avoid any losses if they have any hope of -catching the Ravens for the top seed in the AFC. They are almost a double-digit favorite on the road and it is hard to imagine them letting the losing streak go to three games. Like most quality teams, we may not have New England available with so many other spots to burn them in the past, and they are another team already crossed off my list.

San Francisco 49ers

The second-biggest spread belongs to the 49ers, and they are back at home after a brutal stretch on the road. They won an instant classic in the Superdome last week against New Orleans and now get the Falcons which should provide an easy win, especially at home. This 49er defense should cause a ton of problems for the Falcons offensive line and Matt Ryan, and I would be surprised if this was a competitive game. I sound like a broken record, but in Week 15, it is hard to have any of these top teams remaining and unfortunately for me, the Niners are also crossed off the list.

My Week 15 Pick: Buccaneers   

Teams I’ve already used (Week 1: Seahawks, Week 2: Ravens, Week 3: Cowboys, Week 4: Rams-L, Week 5: Eagles, Week 6: Patriots, Week 7: Bills, Week 8: Vikings, Week 9: Niners, Week 10: Saints-L, Week 11: Raiders, Week 12: Browns, Week 13: Chiefs, Week 14: Packers)

There are eight higher spreads on this schedule than Tampa’s and I have already burned each and every one of those teams. This is the problem we get late in the year and this forces me into a spot I certainly don’t feel great about. Tampa Bay is on the road in Detroit, but they are a slight favorite coming in -3.5 to begin the week. Jameis Winston makes plenty of plays, but also turns the ball over at an alarming rate. Add in that the Buccaneers will be without Mike Evans and it’s a dicey spot to target.

Still the Lions are in free fall with no answers on offense, and I still am getting a team in Tampa that is north of a three-point favorite. Most people are going to have issues making selections this week, and Tampa to me is the best of my remaining options.

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Good Luck everyone!