NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks + Strategy | Chiefs or Colts?

We are set to kick off what is sure to be an NFL season unlike any other, but nevertheless, it’s time to play football. Surely we have more questions than answers about what this season will look like, but Week 1 is here, and that means it is time to begin our survival pools. Before we dive into some Week 1, targets here is a quick update about what exactly a survivor pool is.


NFL DFS is BACK … Get 25% off!

The Fantasy Football season is just *days away,* and with kickoff coming shortly, we’re slashing our Awesemo NFL Monthly Pass by 25% if you use promo code SLEEPER. The Awesemo NFL Monthly Pass includes FREE access to our new season long and best ball fantasy football draft kit, as well as ownership projections, the NFL top stack tool and much more! Use promo code SLEEPER before it expires on Wednesday, 9/9/20.


What is an NFL Survivor Pool?

There are several variations of the Survivor Pool format, but the most basic and common one is each week everyone in the pool has to select one team to win a game straight up, not against the spread. If the team wins, you survive the week and move on, and if the team you pick ties or loses, you are eliminated from the pool. The twist is that you can only use any team once, so anyone you pick is no longer available for weeks in the future, making it increasingly difficult as the season goes on. The pool ends when there is one player left, and usually that player will take home a big pay day depending on the pool and the structure.

Week 1 NFL Schedule

Thursday

Texans at Chiefs (-9)

Sunday

Eagles (-6) at Washington Browns at Ravens (-8) Colts (-8) at Jaguars
Jets at Bills (-6.5) Dolphins at Patriots (-6.5) Seahawks (-1.5) at Falcons
Bears at Lions (-3) Packers at Vikings (2.5) Raiders (-3.5) at Panthers
Chargers (-3.5) at Bengals Cardinals at 49ers (-7) Buccaneers at Saints (-3.5)
Cowboys (-3) at Rams

Monday

Steelers (-5.5) at Giants
Titans at Broncos (Pick)

Survivor Pools Picks Strategy

Before we make a selection, it is important to cover a few things that can help you no matter what type of pool you are in. The first one is knowing the league format, which is a simple concept, but it can be overlooked by people in your league. If you only get one miss before you are eliminated as opposed to double elimination, that will change your risk tolerance and how you navigate week to week.

Another key thing to consider is how big of a pool you are in since the goal is to make it further than everyone else. If you are in a smaller pool, you can be a little more conservative and focus on surviving and advancing. However, if you are in a pool with hundreds and hundreds of people, then you not only need to survive, but you need to plan ahead, as the pool won’t be ending anytime soon. Not planning out the year will catch up with you as we get to the second half of season and there are only a few reasonable teams to choose from.

Finally, with this being a year of unknowns, you have to be able to react to late-breaking news each week. There may situations where guys aren’t active or certain teams unfortunately have limited rosters due to the COVID situation. That will drastically alter some of the betting lines and may also shift how you should be approaching certain weeks of survivor if a few lopsided games emerge.

Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks

Kansas City Chiefs

This game kicks off Thursday, so make sure you are locked in if you want to target the Super Bowl Champs. Kansas City is a nine-point favorite and the largest moneyline favorite on the entire slate, so naturally they make sense. Who knows how home-field advantage will be mitigated, but they are in Arrowhead and should be primed to get the season started with a win. The big problem with using the Chiefs is they are a valuable team that will have plenty of double-digit spreads throughout the year.

Indianapolis Colts

The other strategy in survivor is to pick on the horrible teams and take whoever they are playing each week. This year that team is the Jaguars, who are primed to be the worst team in the entire league. They draw Indianapolis in Week 1, and the Colts are a sizable 8-point favorite, up there with Kansas City as the largest on the slate. It is not that Indianapolis is supposed to have a big year, but the Jaguars have a win total sitting at 4.5 the under currently favored. Picking against Jacksonville will be a popular strategy every week in a ton of pools.

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia travels to D.C. to take on the Washington Football Team, and they currently sit as a 6-point favorite. The Eagles were extremely banged up to close the season last year, but now Carson Wentz has plenty of weapons to cause problems for opposing defenses. Philadelphia is expected to compete for the NFC East title, while Washington is most likely destined for the basement of the division. This won’t be as popular as Kansas City or Indianapolis, so if you want to be a little different, this is a spot to consider.

My Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Pick: Colts   

NFL Survivor Picks I’ve Already Used: None

I am going to employ the “Fade Jacksonville” strategy to start the year, as I don’t like the spots for the elite teams. There are a ton of division matchups, which isn’t ideal, and targeting Kansas City in Week 1 feels like a mistake when taking the long-term approach. There is going to be a lot of chaos early in this NFL season, and this Week 1 slate may be one of the toughest for the entire survivor season despite having every team available.

Jacksonville may be home in this matchup, but looking over the rosters, there is a clear gap in talent between them and almost all other teams in the league. They are in pure rebuilding mode, and I expect them to be drafting Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 pick come draft time. On the other hand, the Colts have weapons on both side of the ball, and with the AFC South wide open, they can compete if Philip Rivers has anything left in the tank. They also are a great team to burn right now as their matchups with Jacksonville will probably be the biggest spreads they have during the entire season.


Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE.

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.