Three weeks in the books and the NFL season continues to roll on. Week 3 was mostly uneventful with a few upsets shaking up survivor pools. It was nothing like Week 1, and for the most part you probably were OK unless you were aggressive last week. Week 4 is also the final week before byes start, so we still have all the teams available on the slate. Let’s get into some NFL survivor pool picks for Week 4.
What is a Survivor Pool?
There are several variations of the Survivor Pool format, but the most basic and common one is each week everyone in the pool has to select one team to win a game straight up, not against the spread. If the team wins, you survive the week and move on, and if the team you pick ties or loses, you are eliminated from the pool. The twist is that you can only use any team once, so anyone you pick is no longer available for weeks in the future, making it increasingly difficult as the season goes on. The pool ends when there is one player left, and usually that player will take home a big pay day depending on the pool and the structure.
Week 4 NFL Schedule
Thursday |
||
| Broncos -3 at Jets | ||
Sunday |
||
| Colts -2.5 at Bears | Jaguars at Bengals (-3) | Browns at Cowboys (-4) |
| Saints (-4) at Lions | Steelers (-1.5) at Titans | Seahawks (-6.5) at Dolphins |
| Chargers at Buccaneers (-7.5) | Ravens at Washington | Cardinals (-3.5) at Panthers |
| Vikings at Texans (-3.5) | Giants at Rams (-12) | Patriots at Chiefs |
| Bills (-2.5) at Raiders | Eagles at 49ers (-6.5) | |
Monday |
||
| Falcons at Packers (-7.5) |
Week 3 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Recap
Colts
A massive 48% of people took the Colts last week, which we talked about. They were clearly the obvious choice as an 11.5-point favorite at home against the Jets. They started the game with a pick-six and didn’t look back from there, cruising to victory. It was smooth sailing for anyone that took the “free square,” and that’s never a bad thing in survivor. The only downside was that level of ownership, which at times we want to avoid to give ourselves a chance for the big knockout.
Cardinals
This was the biggest upset on the slate with 12% of teams going home because of the Cardinals loss. They were just south of a touchdown favorite at home against the Lions, but some sloppy play and miscues caused them to drop to 2-1 on the season. This was a reasonable spot to target in survivor, especially if you wanted to at least give yourself that Jets out and the chance to take out almost half the field.
Buccaneers
Another 10% targeted Tampa Bay, which means that they chose to pick on the hopeless Broncos. As we talked about last week, Denver is missing what I would say are their three best players, and the injuries have completely derailed their season. They are going to join the Jets and Jags as a team we can pick against throughout the year, as I don’t see many wins in their future. It was a reasonably easy win for Tampa and for anyone who went there last week in survivor.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Rams
It looks like the Rams will be the highest-owned team in Survivor pools for Week 4, as they draw a fantastic matchup at home against the winless Giants. The spread sits at 12 points, which is going to be far and away the highest on the slate. So far the Rams have shown some of that Super Bowl form from a few years ago with a record of 2-1 after the loss last week in Buffalo. On the other side, the Giants cannot protect Daniel Jones, and he cannot take care of the ball with five turnovers this season. It is hard to imagine the Rams going down in this spot, so this is the obvious choice this week.
Editors note:
Gonna pick the Rams in your NFL Survivor Pool and want to hedge? OddShopper has some +13 Giants lines at -111 (as of writing). OddsShopping is the best way to get the most bang for your buck when placing your sports bets. Click on the image below to sign up and start betting the best odds on offer!
Ravens
The Ravens are coming off the epic Monday Night Football matchup against Kansas City that certainly did not live up to the hype. Baltimore was a 3.5-point favorite, and they didn’t belong on the same field with Kansas City’s offense. It’s not to say the Ravens aren’t an elite team, and I still believe they will get that rematch in the AFC Championship Game. None of that is overly important here as they look to bounce back in Week 4.
Baltimore draws a road matchup with the Washington Football Team, who is 1-2 on the season. Ideally we want to target teams at home, but the Ravens check most of the boxes in this spot. They should get back on track on both sides of the ball against a Washington team that really doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense.
Seahawks
This is a similar situation to Baltimore as the Seahawks hit the road against a team most don’t think will be very good this year. Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite, and they will look to make it 4-0 against the Dolphins. So far Russell Wilson is the MVP with a massive 14 touchdowns over the first three games. The offense is playing at an elite level, and it is hard to imagine Miami being able to slow them down when they are playing like this.
The Dolphins are coming off a beatdown of the Jaguars on Thursday Night, so they are looking to get back to .500 on the season. They have some talent, but this is a tough spot against this Seattle passing game. The good news for Miami is they get a few extra days to rest and prepare coming off Thursday, and Seattle is a little banged up with injuries across the roster. I get the logic of targeting Seattle, but personally it is not the spot that I want to burn the Seahawks. I will look elsewhere.
My Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Pick: Rams
Teams I’ve already used: Colts (L) , Buccaneers (W), Eagles (T)
Last week I went aggressive and took a team that was pretty far off the radar. The Eagles were at home against Cincinnati, and although they needed a win, they decided to play for the tie in what was a mind-boggling decision from Doug Pederson. Some survivor pools have different rules, but generally a tie is considered a loss since you need to win to survive. We look to get back on track here with what should be an easy Week 4 selection.
The Rams are the overwhelming favorite on this Week 4 slate, and they check every single box we want when choosing a survivor team. The other benefit is that I am not overly high on the Rams this season, so I am not worried about burning them too early in the season. This most likely will be their biggest point spread of the season, so it’s the best opportunity to use them. With the way they can get to opposing quarterbacks thanks to Aaron Donald, it should be a long day for Jones and the Giants offense. They will be popular, but there is still plenty of time to take risks in survivor, so I will go with the masses in this spot.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NFL survivor picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE.
