Three week in the books and hopefully you are still alive in your NFL survivor pool. Another week where there wasn’t a lot of drama and the big favorites cruised to wins. Still, depending on your pool size a few people probably got clipped and its never a bad week when you are moving on. Week 4 is the first week where a few teams have a bye so we have one fewer game to choose from.
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What is a Survivor Pool?
There are several variations of the “Survivor Pool” format, but the most basic and common one is each week everyone in the pool has to select one team to win a game straight up not against the spread. If the team gets a win you survive the week and move on while if the team you pick ties or loses the game you are eliminated from the pool and its game over. The twist is that you can only use any team once so anyone you pick is no longer available for weeks in the future making it increasingly difficult as the season goes on. The pool ends when there is one player left who survives the longest and usually will take home a big pay day depending on the pool and the structure.
Week 4 Schedule
Thursday
Eagles at Packers -4.5
Sunday
Panthers at Texans -5 Browns at Ravens -7 Chargers -16.5 at Dolphins
Raiders at Colts -7 Chiefs -6 at Lions Patriots -7 at Bills
Titans at Falcons -4 Buccaneers at Rams -9 Seahawks -5 at Cardinals
Jaguars at Broncos -3 Cowboys -3 at Saints Redskins at Giants TBD
Vikings at Bears TBD
Monday
Bengals at Steelers -4
Week 3 Survivor Recap
Cowboys
The Cowboys were 66% of Yahoo survivor teams’ Week 3 pick, showing how poorly the public views Miami. There was a brief sluggish start, but at no time were the Cowboys in trouble. They ended up winning 31-6 and sadly, I thought Miami made improvements, which shows how low the expectations were. This trend is going to continue all season with a high percentage of pools choosing Miami’s opponents. In spots, it will be potentially lucrative to fade and hope that the Dolphins steal a win, but last week was as easy as it gets by choosing the Cowboys.
Patriots
In Yahoo leagues, only about 8% of people had the Patriots last week. That is a combination of people wanting to save them and others unable to use them since they were massively popular in Week 2. Either way, if you used them you had a relaxing Sunday as they crushed the Jets. The Patriots defense seems like a top unit in the league and that is scary as their offense always finds ways to put up points despite injuries mounting up. I still have the Patriots to burn, which can be useful as we start to get shorter weeks due to byes.
Packers
If you didn’t go with either of the 20-plus point favorites then the Packers were one of the next best choices. They had a home game in Lambeau against the Broncos and closed at a touchdown favorite. The game was a little back and forth, but this new and improved defense did enough to secure the win. The Packers have moved to 3-0 despite Aaron Rodgers being somewhat quiet to start the season. If this defense can continue to make plays, the Packers are going to be a heavy favorite in home games against lesser competition later in the season.
Buccaneers
Only one or two percent of teams chose the Bucs, but this is where pools lost some people. Daniel Jones and the Giants rallied despite being down Saquon Barkley and were able to steal a win on the road. The Buccaneers missing a late field goal was typical Tampa football and it was one of the only spots where you could have lost in a week without major upsets. This is a classic example of taking a risk to try and save teams for late in the season and not surviving to reap those benefits.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Picks
Chargers
No shock here as they are the winners of the Dolphins sweepstakes, even if it is on the road. The Dolphins “improved” in Week 3 and still lost by 25 points and the Chargers are a 16.5-point favorite in this one. Dolphins quarterback Josh Rosen made some quality throws, but he is surrounded by suspect weapons and is going to be busy running from the Chargers pass rush. After dropping to 1-2 with another disappointing loss, the Chargers can ill afford to mess around in a game like this and should get back to .500 with a road win against the poor Dolphins.
Rams
This is the second-biggest spread of the week as the undefeated Rams host the Buccaneers. Currently, the line sits at -9 for L.A., who is coming off a win in Cleveland and looks to be the early favorite to potentially grab a top seed come playoff time. Tampa is coming off an absurd loss at home where their kicker missed an easy game-winner against the Giants. Talent-wise the Rams should really dominate upfront and we know that Jameis Winston is turnover-prone, which could end this game quickly. This game isn’t as easy to select as the 20-plus-point spreads we had last week, but this is more typical of what we are going to see moving forward in most weeks.
Patriots
There are a number of teams hovering around a touchdown favorite this week. The Patriots are one of those teams as they travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. They won’t be popular since most people already chose them, but it doesn’t seem like the ideal spot to burn them. They will have home games with massive spreads going forward and even though the Bills are the Bills they still sit at 3-0. Spread-wise, I get this game may catch your eye in Week 4, but this is not the spot where I will be looking towards New England.
Colts
Again, not the ideal spot for survivor, but the Colts are in play. They are at home and have the Raiders in town, which equates to another seven-point favorite. Indianapolis has responded well to losing Andrew Luck and quarterback Jacoby Brissett has shown at minimum he can keep this team relevant and in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Raiders have crashed back to earth after that opening Monday Night Football win and really don’t seem to have much working. The Colts are always good at home, and outside of the Chargers, this is a game that’s in that next bucket for highest spreads of the week.
My Pick: Rams
Teams I’ve already used (Week 1: Seahawks, Week 2: Ravens, Week 3: Cowboys)
I’m not saying the Dolphins are going to win, but I will admit the Chargers have looked a little shaky. Either way, this is a week where I will let a massive percentage use the Chargers and I will hope for the miracle upset that will completely unravel most pools. I am sticking in L.A. with the Rams at home as Tampa Bay should be torched by that offense and dominated by the Rams defensive line. I don’t worry too much about using the Rams, and although the safest move is just picking on the Dolphins once again, I will be going slightly against the grain.
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Good Luck everyone!
