It was an easy week for survivor pools, with favorites taking care of business across the board. The most popular team to lose was Miami, at less than 1%. Depending on the size and surviving rate of pools, now might be the time to start thinking about differentiating. Be sure to check out Awesemo’s new NFL Survivor Optimizer Tool when making NFL bets and survivor picks the rest of the way. Here are some potential NFL survivor pool picks for Week 7.
What is an NFL Survivor Pool?
There are several variations of the survivor pool format, but the most basic and common one is each Week everyone in the pool must select one team to win a game straight up, not against the spread. If the team wins, that player survives the Week; if that team loses, the player is eliminated. The twist is that teams can only be used once, making it increasingly difficult as the season goes on. The pool ends when there is one player left.
Week 7 NFL Schedule
Thursday |
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| Broncos at Browns (-3.5) | ||
Sunday |
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| Football Team at Packers (-9.5) | Chiefs (-4.5) at Titans | Falcons (-2.5) at Dolphins |
| Jets at Patriots (-7) | Panthers (-3) at Giants | Bengals at Ravens (-6.5) |
| Eagles at Raiders (-3) | Lions at Rams (-15.5) | Texans at Cardinals (-17) |
| Bears at Buccaneers (-13.5) | Colts at 49ers (-3.5) | |
Monday |
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| Saints (-4.5) at Seahawks |
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Week 6 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Recap
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were the officially recommended play in this column. It was an easy one, with the Colts leading wire to wire. Last week Indianapolis narrowly trailed the Rams in utilization rate. Those who went with Indianapolis have to feel good, as saving the Rams will be helpful. While it would have been nice for one of the other popular teams to fall, goal No. 1 is to survive and advance.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams were the chalk choice last week (35%). After a slightly slow start (zero first quarter points), they exploded for four touchdowns in the second. Their dominant defense took over from there, not allowing the Giants to score a touchdown until well into garbage time. The Rams are narrowly behind Buffalo in the Future Value score in the NFL Survivor Optimizer Tool. This is a weighted ranking of the amount teams are favored for the rest of the season. As such, it may have been a mistake to burn them now, win notwithstanding.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were the final team to come in at over 10% in Yahoo survivor pools. They were inspiring some worry given their poor play to date, so it was not the most comfortable pick. That proved wrong, though, with a dominant 31-13 Kansas City victory. The Chiefs are one of the top four teams in future value from the NFL Survivor Optimizer Tool. Those four teams are all rated 97 or above — fifth place is at 74.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers were, somewhat surprisingly, only used by 2.89% of the field on Yahoo. It was probably sharp to save them, though; they are tied with the Rams in our future value score. It got slightly tight at the end, but Tampa survived the late surge against the Eagles.
Week 7 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Teams Already Used: San Francisco 49ers (W), Cleveland Browns (W), Denver Broncos (W), Cincinnati Bengals (W), Baltimore Ravens (W), Indianapolis Colts (W)
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are favored by more than two touchdowns, as the Lions come to town. Narratives abound here, with the teams swapping quarterbacks in the offseason. However, it does not project to be much of a game. The Lions might legitimately be an 0-17 team, while the Rams have been dominant. The Rams are not really a leverage play, as there is almost no chance they will lose. However, there are three double-digit favorites this week. As it stands right now, the Rams are the only team projected as at least a 10-point favorite in Week 13. It is certainly worth considering holding on to the Rams for leaner times.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are somehow even larger favorites than the Rams, as they host the 1-5 Texans. Much like the Rams, there is not much to be said here from the perspective of their chances of winning. That means not much of the competition will fall off here. Unlike the Rams, though, this is the most by which the Cardinals are projected to be favored for the rest of the season. They are near a touchdown favorite in Weeks 15 and 16, but in both of those weeks there are better options on paper.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Like the teams mentioned above, the Buccaneers are more than 10-point favorites as they host the Bears. They are the smallest of the big favorites but still roughly 90% to win based on their moneyline odds. They have an exceedingly high future value, though, and are expected to be 10-point favorites in Week 17.
New England Patriots
If trying to get contrarian and hoping for a big upset from one of the chalk teams, the Patriots make sense. They are touchdown favorites at home against the Jets. The only other time they would be in consideration is in Week 17, when they are home against Jacksonville. There are four other teams the NFL Survivor Optimizer Tool predicts will be bigger favorites, though, so not much is gained by using New England this week.
Week 7 NFL Survivor Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Most weeks teams in the Patriots situation would be the better pick. However, the Cardinals do not really cost too much to use. This will probably change if they continue to play undefeated football, but they will likely not be favored by more than 6.5 points the rest of the way. While Arizona has a higher future value score, there is not really a clear spot to save them for — unlike New England, who is an obvious value late in the season. Make it easy in Week 7 and take the biggest favorite.
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