Greetings, Gamers! We have an excellent opportunity on Yahoo! for Week 10 as they are running a $250,000 contest with a $10 entry fee and 27,800 entries. This flagship tournament has not filled in any of the first six weeks which has provided “extra value” for gamers. Let’s get into some NFL DFS Picks for Week 10 including Dalvin Cook and Chris Carson.
Don’t forget to check out the Yahoo Fantasy Show with Alex “Awesemo” Baker and Nolan Kelly Friday at 1pm on the Awesemo YouTube Channel
For Adam Pfeifer’s Week 10 game by game breakdown click here
If you haven’t signed up for Yahoo Fantasy DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit and you will be eligible for $30 of “free play” which Yahoo! will match through the first $30 of your deposit (this bonus will be received in Yahoo Sports Rewards Points aka YSRP which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately).
Yahoo! DFS Football General Strategy
As with most sites, there are many viable strategies that can be successful in large field tournaments and of course, we do need the same amount of favor from Lady Luck as we do elsewhere.
Key thing to remember is that this is a “half-PPR” site, meaning receptions are worth 0.5 points and the minimum salary is $10 with an average salary per player of $22. This week, Christian McCaffrey is at the top of the pricing list at $41. The full scoring parameters can be found here.
If you are using an optimizer, it is important to remember that you will still need to input the lineups by hand (this lack of automation also helps keep away some of the “mega shark” players). You will also want to closely look at the lineups because the automation will look to use the cheaper quarterbacks. It will also home in on players that may not be “good plays” on other sites and they will not be highlighted in the mainstream analysis that is available to the masses each week.
Awesemo NFL Rankings
One of the most useful features of the Awesemo.com premium content is the personal player rankings from Alex Baker, aka Awesemo, for all of the main sports. The players grade out separately for each DFS site with ratings for both “projected points” and “value” receiving an A through E report card-style grade.
As a sneak preview, for this article I will be sharing the grades Full Rankings (Premium Content)
Quarterback
If you have played football this season on Yahoo, or if you played daily fantasy baseball, you know that the strategy is to look for the cheapest quarterback or pitcher that is tolerable so you can look for more secure points and upside elsewhere. In the recommendations below, I will be highlighting several discount options at the other positions so you can build a framework that will allow lineup construction for a top-shelf quarterback along with his favorite target and still have enough salary cap to “run it back” with the top option on the opposing team.
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals – $40 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value A
This is a phenomenal matchup for second year man Lamar Jackson. The Bengals are allowing the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season. Over the last four weeks they have allowed the third most. Toss in their 31st overall DVOA coming in at 29th against the run and 30th against the pass and all signs point to go!
The two tricky spots of course are the price for Jackson who is the most expensive quarterback this week. He also has not topped 250 passing yards since Week 4 so it is hard to pair him with one of his receiver. He has topped 21+ Yahoo points in every game except one this season and his 79.6 rushing yards per outing are the ninth best figure in the league. If you have the extra salary flexibility, Jackson is an excellent luxury play.
Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals – $31 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value B
With the discount to Jackson and the favorable matchup, Winston is likely to be the most popular quarterback on Yahoo this weekend. It also helps that he has a variety of choices we can use as part of a synergy strategy. On the season Arizona has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers and they have the fourth worst passing DVOA and overall DVOA. The Cardinals have given up 300+ yards in three of their last for contests along with eight aerial scores.
We can look to both Chris Godwin – $29 and Mike Evans $32 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value D as potential stacking options with Winston.
Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $28 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value A
On the other side of this potential track meet we have rookie Kyler Murray who continues to show improvement as a passer, but still is not afraid to pull the ball down and run. The Bucs have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season and the most to opposing wide receivers over the last four weeks. They have the fifth worst passing DVOA but the best rushing DVOA. This has created somewhat of a “pass funnel” opportunity. Though Christian Kirk – $16 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value B and Larry Fitzgerald – $15 Awesemo Grade: Points B, Value A are not as exciting as Winston’s receiving partners, they are half the price.
Running Back
We want to keep in mind that while running backs are very important, Yahoo! is a “half-PPR” site, which will not penalize running backs that are not as active in the passing game.
Ronald Jones – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals – $15 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value A
It looks like Jones is going to be “the guy” for Tampa Bay this week. Since being a first rounder last year, he has appeared in just 14 games. He has topped 75 rushing yards only once in his career. This year there have only been two games with more than two targets. That said, he is cheap and should have opportunities in a likely high scoring game.
Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings – $30 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value B
The matchup against Minnesota is not going to be an easy one as they are ranked ninth in both passing and rushing DVOA with the seventh best mark overall. The price takes this all into account and with Elliott playing in the Sunday Night Football game, we know those players tend to be overlooked by The Masses. For the first time since Week 9 of the 2017, Elliott did not receive a single target in Monday’s matchup against the Giants. That is slightly concerning, but not likely to be a major issue going forward.
David Montgomery – Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions – $20 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value B
Wow, I did not realize that the Detroit Lions have allowed the most fantasy point to running backs this season. Over their last four games they have ceded the third most. Though they try to control the clock themselves, there should be ample opportunity for Montgomery in this matchup. Particularly as coach Matt Nagy works to limit the reliance on QB Mitch Trubisky.
Wide Receiver
Keep in mind that Yahoo scoring is half-PPR . More often than not, we should be able to find several nice options in the mid-tier. The top-shelf options are typically priced in the mid-$30 range. Often they are best paired with their quarterbacks for tournament upside, rather than risking downside as “solo” plays.
Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons – $37 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value C
This price is going to make it tough to work in Thomas, but even with the half-PPR scoring on Yahoo, he projects as the top scoring receiver. On the season the Falcons have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the third most to wide receivers. New Orleans has the second worse passing DVOA and the only knock against Thomas is that the Saints may be able to take their foot off the gas in the second half. Here’s hoping this price keeps his popularity in check.
Stefon Diggs – Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys – $25 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value C
Dallas has been a middle-of-the-pack squad from a passing DVOA perspective and they have gotten lucky with their opponents. This has served to keep the fantasy points suppressed. Daniel Jones, Eli Manning, Case Keenum, Josh Rosen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers. While Kirk Cousins is better than half that list, he is not a world beater. The bonus/risk for Diggs is the absence of Adam Theilen which should increase his opportunities. In turn this will also draw the focus of the secondary.
DJ Moore – Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers – $16 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value C
We need some salary relief as we do not have unlimited resources and Moore fits the bill. He has double digit fantasy points in five of his eight games and in the one he fell shy he had 10 targets for 7/76/0. Moore is averaging 8.5 targets per game and the Panthers are going to need to throw to move the ball against Green Bay.
Tight Ends
We have have one VERY intriguing discount options this week, so let’s focus on him. The premium options are easy to spot with Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce leading the way.
Jack Doyle – Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins – $14 Awesemo Grade: Points B, Value B
Brian Hoyer will be starting for the Colts in a very winnable matchup as Jacoby Brissett continues to recover from his knee injury. T.Y. Hilton and Paris Campbell are also out with their respective calf and hand injuries. That will leave Zach Pascal – $17 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value B, Doyle and Eric Ebron – $15 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value C as the viable receiving options. Begrudgingly I will list Chester Rogers, but I do not want any part of that. Deon Cain was waived this week.
Defense/Special Teams
We have two options standing out well above the other plays, so I am content to just focus on them.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals – $13 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value A
While we are not fired up to take defenses on the road in general, this is a sublime situation. The Bungles will again be without A.J. Green and they have shelved Andy Dalton in favor of rookie Ryan Finely. It almost feels like a pick-six is preordained.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins – $14 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value A
In a recommendation that surprises exactly no one, let’s target against the no longer winless Dolphins.
Hopefully these DFS Picks and recommendations get your lineup construction process jump started and on your way to a big showing in the Yahoo! $250k Dollar Baller contest!
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
