Greetings, Gamers! We have an excellent opportunity on Yahoo for Week 6, as they are running a $200,000 contest with a $15 entry fee and 15,000 entries. This flagship tournament generally does not fill more than 90-95% in the seventh week, which provides extra value for gamers. Let’s get into some NFL Yahoo Fantasy Football DFS Picks for Week 7 including Russell Wilson, Ezekiel Elliott and Kyler Murray.
Don’t forget to check out this week’s NFL DFS On the Contrary show with Alex “Awesemo” Baker, Dave “Loughy” Loughran and special guest Gio Demars aka RBX88 who has won THREE Millionaire Makers in the last ten months on the Awesemo YouTube Channel
Yahoo Fantasy Football General Strategy
As with most sites, there are many viable strategies that can be successful in large-field tournaments and of course, we do need the same amount of favor from Lady Luck as we do elsewhere.
The key thing to remember is that this is a half-PPR site, meaning receptions are worth 0.5 points and the minimum salary is $10 with an average salary per player of $22. This week, Alvin Kamara is at the top of the pricing list at $43. The full scoring parameters can be found here.
Please note: Yahoo now offers CSV upload as well as editing capabilities. The latter was something that was not available until recently. Be sure to become familiar with the steps involved in this process so you are savvy with how it all works when faced with a time crunch.
Awesemo NFL Rankings
One of the most useful features of the Awesemo.com premium content is the personal player rankings from Alex Baker, aka Awesemo, for all of the main sports. The players grade out separately for each DFS site with ratings for both “projected points” and “value” receiving an A through E report card-style grade.
As a sneak preview, for this article I will be sharing the grades Full Rankings (Premium Content)
If you have played football on Yahoo, or if you played Yahoo fantasy baseball, you know that the strategy is to look for the cheapest quarterback or pitcher that is tolerable so you can look for more secure points and upside elsewhere. In the recommendations below, I will be highlighting several discount options at the other positions so you can build a framework that will allow lineup construction for a top-shelf quarterback along with his favorite target and still have enough salary cap to run it back with the top option on the opposing team.
Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks – $40 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value C
The Seahawks at Cardinals game has been flexed to the Sunday Night Football slot with some concerns about Las Vegas Raiders personnel potentially being exposed to COVID-19. Seattle is allowing a league worst 370.4 passing yards per game, but the have held the line with a solid 1.6 passing touchdowns and 1.4 interceptions. The 1.8 sacks is very mediocre and we know that Murray is tough to bring down.
Murray leads all quarterbacks with 61.7 rushing yards per game which has him on pace for just shy of 1,000. He also has six rushing touchdowns which is the most among field generals as well. If you are looking for a deluxe option to anchor your “cash games” then the second year signal-caller is your guy.
Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals – $39 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value B
The only even remotely concerning thing here is that Arizona has kept Wilson under 250 passing yards in their last six meetings. This dates back three seasons with an average line of 18.2 completions on 27.8 attempts for 65.3% with 198.7 passing yards and 1.2 touchdown. They have also averaged 4.2 sacks in these meetings. Seattle is 4-2 in these games with one of the losses being by just two points. Bruce Arians, Steve Wilks and Kliff Klingsbury each coached two of the Arizona games while Pete Carroll had all six of the Seattle appearances. This does not seem to be actionable information for me, but it was interesting nonetheless.
The Seahawks are coming off a bye and will be facing the 10th best Passing DVOA per Football Outsiders. Arizona has not allowed more than two passing touchdowns in any game this season. Teddy Bridgewater‘s 276 passing yards are the most by any opposing signal-caller. Arizona has allowed an average line of 23.0 for 36.8 for a 62.4% completion rate with 230.8 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns and half an interception. For me this keeps Wilson in the tournament play category.
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions – $28 Awesemo Grade: Points B, Value A
Now that the Falcons have moved on from their inept coach and general manager, the players are seeming a little bit peppier. This is of course more narrative than substantive, however, they literally have nothing to lose. On the season Atlanta is playing at the third fastest pace on offense at 25.23 seconds per play with the league average at 27.13. Detroit is at 11th for a 26.94 seconds per play rate so there should not be too much dawdling in this game. Detroit has a middle-of-the-pack passing defense with the 12th best DVOA. They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of their five games, but Kyler Murray‘s 270 passing yards is the current highwater mark. Julio Jones – $32 is healthy and coming off a phenomenal game making him a nice tournament pairing with his quarterback.
Andy Dalton – Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team – $28 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value B
If you are looking for a contrarian play, the Dalton is your guy with less than 2.0% of the field projected to roster him. We of course have a plethora of options we can pair with him at very friendly price points. Amari Cooper – $20, CeeDee Lamb – $21 and Michael Gallup – $18 would be my preferred order of preference.
Awesemo’s Player Prop Stat Projections are predicting 311.2 passing yards for Andy Dalton which is well over what his Vegas totals suggest. There is some variation in the lines across sportsbooks, so use OddsShopper to take advantage of this possible money-making player prop. Click on the image for more OddsShopper options.
*Betting odds as of Saturday, Oct. 24 at 2:42 p.m. EST
We want to keep in mind that while running backs are very important, Yahoo fantasy uses half-PPR, which will not penalize running backs that are not as active in the passing game.
Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers – $43 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value D
Michael Thomas (hamstring) and Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-19) are both out so that leaves Kamara to once again shoulder the load. Yahoo was preemptive with the pricing as he is coming in with the highest figure this week. We have a lot of options and that combined with the salary cap hit have him projected to be on just one out of every ten lineups in tournaments.
Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team – $34 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value C
We saw an absolute dud from Elliott on Monday Night Football where he lost his third and fourth fumbles on the season. While that is concerning, the price tag is fair for a middling matchup with the Washington Football Team. It would makes sense for Dallas to try and ride him to victory in the putrid NFC East.
Giovani Bernard – Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns – $14 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value B
With Joe Mixon ruled out, Bernard is elevated to RB1 status. However, we should temper expectations as he scored his first touchdown of the season last week. Through six games he has 12/44/1 on the ground and 20 targets for 16/115/0 through the air. He is a borderline RB 2/Flex option this week, but the price savings is undeniable.
Jerick McKinnon – San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots – $16 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value A
While it is not an easy matchup on the road in Foxboro, McKinnon will draw the start with Raheem Mostert on the shelf. While he is a better option with more upside than Giovani Bernard, he does have the tougher matchup.
Justin Jackson – Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $16 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value A
Coming off a bye, we should see Jackson as the RB1 with Joe Kelly – $16 mixing in for 30-40% of the workload as the Chargers look to replace Austin Ekeler. This is a fine matchup against Jacksonville and one could argue that Jackson is the best option of our discount dandy trio. Update: Saturday afternoon RB Troymaine Pope was activated from the practice squad, this could mean that Jackson’s knee issue has flared up despite or as a result of Friday’s full practice. Ife he is out, Joe Kelly is an easy pivot at the same price point or if you do not want to deal with that the go to McKinnon or Bernard before the 1pm ET kickoff.
More often than not, we should be able to find several nice options in the middle tier. The top-shelf Yahoo fantasy options are typically priced in the mid-$30 range. Often, they are best paired with their quarterbacks for tournament upside rather than risking downside as solo plays.
In addition to the players highlighted above with their quarterbacks, we can look to:
DJ Moore – Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints – $18 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value A
We have been chasing after Moore for a while, but there should be enough volume on the Panthers to support both he and teammate Robby Anderson – $24. The 25% discount makes him the easy pivot over Anderson.
Tre’Quan Smith – New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers – $12 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value A
Yes, it definitely appears that Drew Brees does not have much of a downfield impact anymore. However, without Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, Smith could flirt with double digit targets on Sunday.
Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills at New York Jets – $24 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value B
It just takes one big play and there should be opportunities for Diggs to succeed in New York. The only worry is that the Jets get blown out early, but if that is the case, Diggs should have at least one of the scores leading to that outcome.
This week we have some high, medium and low priced options.
Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $21 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value B
George Kittle – $27 has a tricky matchup in New England and Travis Kelce – $29 will be playing in sub-freezing temperatures with a chance of snow in Denver. That leaves us with Waller who has a nice matchup against a Tampa Bay squad that can be had via the pass.
Jared Cook – New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers – $16 Awesemo Grade: Points B, Value B
During his time with the Saints, Cook has never really been peppered with targets. However, with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders out of action, he should approach 7-8 looks from Drew Brees. Most importantly, we know he is a trusted red zone target.
Greg Olsen – Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals – $10 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value A
We know that Olsen is touchdown or bust, but we also need to remember that Russell Wilson has thrown nearly 30% of his touchdowns to the tight end position over the last four seasons. Olsen does have five receptions or a touchdown in three of his five games this season.
This week with all of the expensive offensive options, we should look to some of the bargain defenses.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $13 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value C
The chargers have managed just four takeaways and seven sacks through five games. They are cheap, coming off a bye week and facing a Jaguars team on the verge of collapse.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers – $14 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value D
The Saints have posted three sacks in four of their five games and are averaging one takeaway per appearance. The main problem is that they are allowing 30 points per game which is not helping their fantasy cause. Tournaments only, but all it takes is a pick-six or scoop and score for us to be racing up the leaderboards!
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
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