Welcome to the NFL Yahoo Cup Three and Out! This free-to-enter, single-entry fantasy football contest consists of 18 rounds where the top 25,200 entry overall and top 1,000 entries per round share $150,000, with $10,000 to first overall and $1,000 + YFFC Live Final entry to first per round. Scoring will be cumulative across all rounds, with your three lowest scores dropped at the end. You may join this multi-round NFL DFS contest at any point, but enter today to give yourself the best chance to take home the title. Click here to begin the chase!
We will focus on three players — one quarterback, one running back and one wide receiver — to be NFL DFS picks for this week’s NFL Yahoo Cup contest.
NFL Yahoo Cup Fantasy Football Picks | Round 4
NFL DFS Quarterback: Josh Allen — $34
Allen is clearly the strongest play on the slate for Yahoo DFS. The Bills lead the league in implied total this week, at 31.75. With their limited production on the ground, those points have to come from somewhere, and that place is likely Allen. While there is a natural inclination to stay away from quarterbacks who are large favorites — thinking they will not have to pass as much — that has not really been the Bills M.O. Allen attempted 43 passes last week against Washington despite being up three scores within 20 minutes.
The overall game environment could hardly be better for Allen this week. Both the Bills and the Texans are inside the top 10 in the NFL in pace. Houston’s defense is also bad, currently 30th in DVOA. There is not much more one could ask for in a fantasy quarterback. Allen is the only player at the position to get an A grade in both overall points and value in Awesemo’s rankings this week. He is expensive, but salary can be saved elsewhere.
NFL DFS Running Back: D’Andre Swift — $16
While no running backs have A grades for value and points, Swift is close. He has a B in total points but is a good value on Yahoo at only $16. With the Lions being so limited offensively, they have force fed Swift touches through the air. His 23 targets trail only Najee Harris among backs. Yahoo is only half-PPR, but targets are still more valuable than carries. Swift, for example, is averaging over 7 yards per target. When he runs the ball, he averages 4.5 yards each attempt.
There will be plenty of checkdowns to Swift this week in particular. The Lions offensive line is solid but still missing a starting tackle. Pro Football Focus gives the Lions the second-worst pass blocking matchup on the week. All of that means the Lions will not be able to wait for receivers to get open downfield, so short throws to Swift will be frequent. At a salary of only $16, he also provides a solid floor and ceiling while allowing for expensive players like Allen.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver: Courtland Sutton — $19
With both Jerry Jeudy and K,J, Hamler both out, the receiver room in Denver is getting thin. Enter Courtland Sutton. Already the team’s leader in targets this year, his role can only expand until Jeudy comes back (Hamler is out for the year). Not only is he seeing targets, but they are also high value. His average depth of target is 16.75, so these are not screen passes. The Broncos have controlled all of their games this year, leading to reduced passing volume, but that is not likely to continue against Baltimore this week — the Broncos are favored by only a point.
Sutton has not been exceptionally productive this year, averaging 9.5 Yahoo points per game. But he flashed his ceiling in Week 2, going off for 159 yards on nine catches. Sutton is also yet to score a touchdown. If the Broncos are forced to attack at all this week, it will likely be through Sutton. With Baltimore being one of the bigger pass-funnel defenses in the league (21st against the pass, 10th against the run by DVOA), the matchup is solid for Sutton as well. He has an A grade in both total points and value this week in Awesemo’s rankings.
