The race for the big game is on and we’ve got a loaded slate of NFL DFS action to round out the year. The final slate of the season that will feature more than two games is the combined Saturday-Sunday contest on each site. DraftKings is running their main slates for both days, while FanDuel has chosen to treat Saturday and Sunday as separate slates for their largest contests. We’re treating the weekend as one big slate and providing NFL DFS picks, groups and settings for DraftKings NFL and FanDuel NFL lineups for both Saturday and Sunday. These are all updated for the latest information as of early Saturday morning, if anything major emerges for Sunday I will try to get back with an update. With a few pieces of news still to emerge, as always, your best bet is to follow along with our NewsGod and all the shows, articles, tools and content!
I’m making use of the new NFL boom/bust tool in making my NFL DFS picks again this week. If you’re familiar with the product from our NBA toolkit, it operates the same way, providing a probability that a player will either hit or miss a target score. This is yet another game-changer for the Awesemo team. Check it out!
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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Divisional Round
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Notes
This version is updated for Saturday morning, if any major changes emerge for Sunday I will try to run a quick update to any groups or settings.
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: At least one (I would consider this at an “at most” to push some Lamar only lineups, or adding a Lamar exception and turning this group off for a few crunches)
Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, Miles Boykin (+15%), J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary (-35%)
Buffalo Bills
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary (-35%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, Miles Boykin, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards
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Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: At least one
Group: Jarvis Landry (+10%), Rashard Higgins, Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nick Chubb
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Travis Kelce (-15%), Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (-35%) (Sammy Watkins will miss the Divisional Round)
Green Bay Packers
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: At least one
Group: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan (+10%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Cam Akers, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds, Gerald Everett (feel free to choose between the tight ends instead of listing them both)
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: At least one
Group: Travis Kelce (-15%), Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Q) (-35%) (Sammy Watkins will miss the Divisional Round. Edwards-Helaire is questionable, if he misses this one Darrel Williams is an interesting inexpensive option, though Le’Veon Bell will be lurking to swipe opportunities)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins (-15%), Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper (+10%), Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nick Chubb
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: At least one
Group: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp (Q), Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds, Van Jefferson, Gerald Everett (I’m adding Everett to work a little natural wiggle into GPP entries with a lower owned tight end with touchdown upside on a very short Divisional Round slate. Kupp is questionable but fully expected to play with lingering knee pain)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan (+10%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+10%), Aaron Jones (-35%)
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Drew Brees
Setting: At least one
Group: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders (+10%), Jared Cook, Deonte Harris (+10%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski (+10%), Ronald Jones
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: At least one (I’ll run some sets with this at two)
Group: Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski (+10%) (Ronald Jones is questionable and slated to be a game time decision. If he doesn’t play and we expand Leonard Fournette’s projections, you may need to add him with a negative bump to control exposures)
Opposing Setting: At most two
Group: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Deonte Harris (+15%)
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