Welcome to the last week of the NFL DFS regular season. Hopefully, you’ve been keeping up, there are a ridiculous number of moving parts for Week 17. From backup quarterbacks taking the start to give their star teammates a respite before the playoffs, to injuries, to COVID-19, we have players in and out all over the map. A few teams have something to play for this week, so there will be spots that look more “live” than others, but NFL DFS picks abound for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, and there will be value in strange places. The massive 15-game slate has a ton to keep track of, as always, your best bet is to follow along with our NewsGod and all the shows, articles, tools and content!
I’m making use of the new NFL boom/bust tool in making my NFL DFS picks again this week. If you’re familiar with the product from our NBA toolkit, it operates the same way, providing a probability that a player will either hit or miss a target score. This is yet another game-changer for the Awesemo team. Check it out!
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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 17
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update
Well, that took some doing. Buckle up, because we’ve had a massive amount of change in what was already set to be a wildly chaotic slate. All of the latest in/out information should be captured below, but as usual stay up to speed with the NewsGod and our FOUR hours of live shows heading into lock for the latest, there are bound to be more changes from here. The boosts applied are for in-group bumps to specific players to push slightly more or less of them into our fantasy cruncher results to reach appropriate distributions and create some leveraged opportunities within the results.
Be wary of various player exposures when making your NFL DFS picks this week, the value up and down the board is bananas on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The combinations you can build with chalky value plays like Ty Montgomery and Alexander Mattison are borderline absurd. Adding a cheap quarterback stack to the mix becomes a “play anyone else you want” situation. Good luck out there, it’s been a fun regular season, I’ll see you in the playoffs.
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds (+15%), Larry Fitzgerald (Q) (+25%), KeeSean Johnson (+25%), Dan Arnold (Christian Kirk is out for Week 17; Andy Isabella is a fringey play that can replace Johnson in some versions of this group, both get a boost if the currently questionable Larry Fitzgerald does not play)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds (+15%), Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson (+15%) (the Rams are rolling with a backup quarterback, this passing game could be uglier than usual)
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least one
Group: Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage, (Julio Jones is out for Week 17. I’m keeping Todd Gurley out of the group on passing game volume. Brandon Powell and Christian Blake are fringe plays with very low projections again. I can run a few crunches with them included, give them +25% bumps when you do. Outside of those two, these two teams function well together in groups and are falling correctly without boosts)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: At most one
Group: Mark Andrews (-15%), Marquise Brown (+15%), Willie Snead (+15%), Miles Boykin (+25%), Dez Bryant (+25%)(There isn’t enough involvement for the running backs in the limited Ravens passing attack. I primarily want the first three players on this list, but will welcome minimal shares of the others in some volume in this matchup. Boosts are required to get anyone other than Andrews)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, Drew Sample
Buffalo Bills
Key Player: Josh Allen (there is a strong chance that Allen only plays the first half. The latest word is that he will play and chase the MVP award, but the team is likely to do the smart thing and hand the reins to Matt Barkley before too long. If news breaks early and Barkley gets the start, be sure to make the appropriate key player change. It might make sense to also make this group with Barkley as the key, or skip the unpredictable spot)
Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox (-25%) (Cole Beasley has been ruled out for Week 17. Knox is a fringe play at tight end. I moved Gabriel Davis back into the group with Beasley out and Brown not likely to play a full game. For some reason we get a massive share of Knox if we don’t bump him down)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Lynn Bowden, Mack Hollins
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At most one
Group: Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel (running back Mike Davis is unlikely for Week 17)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Emmanuel Sanders (+15%), Jared Cook (+10%), Marquez Callaway (+15%), Ty Montgomery (-25%) (Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray are out for Week 17, COVID-19 has impacted the Saints, keep a close eye on this situation for further changes)
Chicago Bears
Key Player: Mitchell Trubisky
Setting: At least one
Group: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller, David Montgomery, Cole Kmet (swapping Kmet in for Jimmy Graham again based on Awesemo’s projections)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Brandon Allen
Setting: At most one
Group: Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, Drew Sample, Giovani Bernard (Tyler Boyd is expected back for Week 17. Joe Mixon is out once again)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mark Andrews (-15%), Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, Miles Boykin, Dez Bryant
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: At least one
Group: Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Rashard Higgins (+15%), Austin Hooper (-15%), Donovan Peoples-Jones (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington (tight end Eric Ebron is on the COVID-19 list for Week 17)
Dallas Cowboys
Key Player: Andy Dalton
Setting: At least one
Group: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb (+10%), Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup (+10%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram (-15%) (Golden Tate is now doubtful with a calf injury)
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Drew Lock
Setting: At most one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, (We’ll probably have to add Melvin Gordon to control in-stack exposures to him for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, check back Sunday)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Darren Waller (-15%), Nelson Agholor (+15%), Hunter Renfrow (+15%), Henry Ruggs (+25%)
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: At least one
Group: D’Andre Swift (+10%), Marvin Jones (+10%), T.J. Hockenson (-25%), Danny Amendola (+10%), Mohamed Sanu, Quintez Cephus
Opposing Setting: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Alexander Mattison (-25%) (Dalvin Cook is out for Week 17, Alexander Mattison is a great value, but needs to be added to this group to control an otherwise overwhelming exposure to him)
Green Bay Packers
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: At least one (I will run this at two for some crunches)
Group: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard (+15%), Robert Tonyan, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller
Houston Texans
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, Jordan Akins, Chad Hansen, David Johnson (Johnson has been excellent since returning from the COVID-19 list and has solid passing game volume. Tight end Darren Fells works as a “get different” dart throw in a limited number of DraftKings and FanDuel lineups)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Phillip Rivers
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Trey Burton, Jonathan Taylor (-25%) (This offense once again is offering a choice between three tight ends, I’m going to try to connect with Trey Burton based on our projection and his red zone target volume. I’m adding Taylor to control exposures, he was coming up as a third add-on to the group in a weird amount of lineups)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert, Chris Conley (DJ Chark is out for Week 17)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Mike Glennon
Setting: At most one
Group: Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault, Tyler Eifert, Chris Conley (DJ Chark is out. I’m keeping this at most one and without James Robinson in the group again for Week 17 on DraftKings and FanDuel)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Trey Burton (add Taylor with a -25% here as well if you’re getting too much of him in run-back spots)
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Chad Henne (the Chiefs are giving superstar Patrick Mahomes a week off ahead of the playoffs)
Setting: At most one (a dramatic change for this offense)
Group: Byron Pringle, Taraje Sharpe, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Deon Yelder (-15%) (as expected, Hill, Kelce and Watkins are unlikely to play at all in Week 17 and are out of play. This is an entirely different Chiefs team for DraftKings and FanDuel contests)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Williams, Tyron Johnson, Jalen Guyton, Donald Parham (-15%)
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: At least one
Group: Darren Waller (-15%), Nelson Agholor (+15%), Hunter Renfrow (+15%), Henry Ruggs (+25%)
Opposing setting: At most one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant (-10%), KJ Hamler
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Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: At least one
Group: Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams (+10%), Jalen Guyton (+15%), Tyron Johnson, Donald Parham (-20%) (Keenan Allen is now out for Week 17. Keep up with the latest of with our NewsGod’s Live Injury Updates for everything breaking.)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Byron Pringle, Taraje Sharpe, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Deon Yelder (-25%)
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: John Wolford (Jared Goff is getting Week 17 off)
Setting: At most one
Group: Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds, Van Jefferson (Cooper Kupp is on the COVID-19 list. Gerald Everett can swap in at the tight end spot in a few versions of this group)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds, Larry Fitzgerald, KeeSean Johnson
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: At least one
Group: Myles Gaskin, Devante Parker, Mike Gesicki (-20%), Lynn Bowden (+15%), Mack Hollins (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox (-15%)
Minneosta Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At most one
Group: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen (+15%), Irv Smith (Dalvin Cook is out, Alexander Mattison should be a highly played value option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Add him to the group with a -25% if you’re getting to an uncomfortable amount of him in Vikings stacks)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D’Andre Swift, Marvin Jones (+15%), T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola (+25%), Mohamed Sanu (+25%), Quintez Cephus (+25%)
New England Patriots
Key Player: Cam Newton
Setting: At most one
Group: Jakobi Meyers, James White (+10%), Damiere Byrd (+15%), N’Keal Harry (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman, Ty Johnson (-50%)
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Drew Brees
Setting: At least one
Group: Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook (-15%), Marquez Callaway (+25%), Ty Montgomery (-25%) (COVID-19 hit the Saints offense hard, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray are both out. Ty Montgomery is interesting for Week 17 in this offense. Keep an eye on the news for NFL DFS picks, there will be crucial changes still to come that will impact lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel
New York Giants
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: At most one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton (+15%), Evan Engram (-15%), (Golden Tate is unlikely to play)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup
New York Jets
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Brashad Perriman, Denzel Mims
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jakobi Meyers, James White (+15%), Damiere Byrd (+15%), N’Keal Harry (+25%)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Mason Rudolph (Ben Roethlisberger is getting Week 17 off, Rudolph is one of the more interesting backup quarterbacks among NFL DFS picks for Week 17)
Setting: At least one
Group: Diontae Johnson, Juju Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, James Washington
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Rashard Higgins, Austin Hooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At least one
Group: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, David Moore (+25%), Jacob Hollister (Greg Olsen is out, so I’m putting Jacob Hollister back in the group)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: George Kittle (-20%), Kendrick Bourne (+10%), Richie James (+10%)
San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: C.J. Beathard
Setting: At most one
Group: George Kittle (-25%), Kendrick Bourne (+15%), Richie James (+15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, David Moore (+25%), Jacob Hollister
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: At least one
Group: Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least one
Group: A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (-25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, Jordan Akins, Chad Hansen, David Johnson
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