NFL DFS Picks: Wild Card Saturday Optimal Lineup Groups I DraftKings

The NFL playoffs are kicking off in style with a three-game Saturday that gives us plenty to chew on for our NFL DFS needs. The action kicks off in the early afternoon and goes through the evening before we do it all over again tomorrow for the Sunday slate. This article will return tomorrow morning for the full set of Sunday games, so check back for those matchups. These Wild Card Saturday NFL DFS picks, groups and settings for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups are all updated for the latest information as of early Saturday morning. With a few pieces of news still to emerge, as always, your best bet is to follow along with our NewsGod and all the shows, articles, tools and content!

I’m making use of the new NFL boom/bust tool in making my NFL DFS picks again this week. If you’re familiar with the product from our NBA toolkit, it operates the same way, providing a probability that a player will either hit or miss a target score. This is yet another game-changer for the Awesemo team. Check it out!

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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Wild Card Saturday

DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:

QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)

QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)

Limit Rules:

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three

Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team

Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)

Construction:

Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.

Notes

This version is fully updated for the Saturday slate, check back first thing tomorrow morning for all of the Sunday games. This next part is important for today’s slate.

If you’re using a global salary minimum without setting exposure maximums you may run into massive shares of Jonathan Taylor when we get to cheap quarterbacks. This is a product of the optimizer trying to fill out your salary space with the most expensive player who also projects strongly. I would remove or adjust the salary floor or create a separate control group with any of the inexpensive quarterbacks that return that result used as the key and Taylor with a negative bump. I’m starting at a -35% but your mileage may vary. Be sure to choose the “only apply +/- adjustments” box.

If you are playing the combined Saturday-Sunday slate, the rules above should guide you along this general construction glide path for the games for everyone from the Sunday games. I would suggest following the same general constructions that we’ve used throughout the NFL DFS season.

Buffalo Bills

Key Player: Josh Allen

Setting: At least one

Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox (With Beasley returning and John Brown healthy we can remove Isaiah McKenzie, though he does have dart throw touchdown upside as a one catch, one touchdown type of receiver in this one. Technically both Diggs and Beasley are labeled questionable, but I fully expect them to go. If either sits, we can put McKenzie back in. Watch the Wild Card Saturday news)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal, Trey Burton

Indianapolis Colts

Key Player: Phillip Rivers

Setting: At least one

Group: T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal, Trey Burton (If you missed the Notes section above, there are important details about Jonathan Taylor exposure controls in stacks that start with the three least expensive quarterbacks)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Stefon Diggs (Q), Cole Beasley (Q), John Brown, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox

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Los Angeles Rams

Key Player: Jared Goff (As of early Saturday morning, I’m still assuming we see Goff tough out his thumb injury. If you’re using saved groups be sure to switch this back from John Wolford, but be ready if we get news that Goff can’t make the start)

Setting: At least one

Group: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds, Van Jefferson, Gerald Everett (I’m adding Everett to work a little natural wiggle into GPP entries with a lower owned tight end with touchdown upside on a very short Wild Card Saturday slate)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: D.K. Metcalf (-10%), Tyler Lockett, David Moore (+35%), Jacob Hollister, Chris Carson (-35% for exposures)

Seattle Seahawks

Key Player: Russell Wilson

Setting: At least one (on a short slate we can run this at two for a some crunches)

Group: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, David Moore (+25%), Jacob Hollister (+25%), Chris Carson (-35% for exposure control)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds (+10%), Van Jefferson, Gerald Everett, Cam Akers (-35%)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key Player: Tom Brady

Setting: At least one (I’ll run some sets with this at two)

Group: Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans (+10%), Rob Gronkowski, Ronald Jones (-35%) (This group is a nice weekly constant, but we need to add Jones with a negative bump to keep his exposures alongside Buccaneers passing stacks within reason. Is it weird that these teams are matched up in alphabetical order this week?)

Opposing Setting: At most two

Group: Terry McLaurin (-15%) (Q), J.D. McKissic (+15%), Logan Thomas (-15%), Cam Sims (+10%), Steven Sims (+15%), Antonio Gibson (-15% for exposure control)

Washington Football Team

Key Player: Alex Smith (like with Goff, I think we see Smith fight through his injury to make the playoff start. This one seems like a close call however, with the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport stating as late as 9pm on Friday that there was a significant chance that backup Taylor Heinicke makes the start)

Setting: At least one (I might consider an at most one if we get Heinicke)

Group: Terry McLaurin (Q), J.D. McKissic (+25%), Logan Thomas, Cam Sims (+15%), Steven Sims, Antonio Gibson (-20%) (McLaurin is dealing with the same injury that he played through in Week 17, I expect him to play and have his usual featured role on Wild Card Saturday. McKissic is one of my favorite under the radar targets on DraftKings and FanDuel NFL slates)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans (+10%), Rob Gronkowski, Ronald Jones (-35%)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.