NFL DFS Picks: Optimizer Groups-Think | Wild Card Sunday Fantasy Lineup Constructions

It is day 2 of Wild Card Weekend is here and we’ve got a ton of action coming up. Yesterday was completely bananas, with two questionable quarterbacks not making their starts and plenty of pivoting and swapping. With basketball also on the slate, it was a fun chaotic afternoon, and today we get to do it all over again! These Wild Card Sunday NFL DFS picks, groups and settings for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups are all updated for the latest information as of early Saturday morning. With a few pieces of news still to emerge, as always, your best bet is to follow along with our NewsGod and all the shows, articles, tools and content!

I’m making use of the new NFL boom/bust tool in making my NFL DFS picks again this week. If you’re familiar with the product from our NBA toolkit, it operates the same way, providing a probability that a player will either hit or miss a target score. This is yet another game-changer for the Awesemo team. Check it out!

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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Wild Card Sunday

DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:

QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)

QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)

Limit Rules: 

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three

Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team

Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)

Construction: 

Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.

Notes

This version is fully updated for the Sunday slate, including all news and recommendations. Depending on your personal preference, I would consider adding a Lamar Jackson exception to the “must stack” rules. On a short three-game slate, naked Lamar can do some damage. I also added an “at most 4 skill players from the same game” rule to prevent getting too overweight on any one team. I was getting some beefy lineups with three Saints coming back against Trubisky and Robinson, for example. There is an argument to be made for playing that, but I prefer to spread out a bit more.


Baltimore Ravens

Key Player: Lamar Jackson

Setting: At least one (I would consider this at an “at most” to push some Lamar only lineups, or adding a Lamar exception and turning this group off for a few crunches)

Group: Mark Andrews (+15%), Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, Miles Boykin (+25%), J.K. Dobbins (-15%), Gus Edwards (-25%) (I’m surprised we need to bump Andrews here, but he was coming up limited for me. Adding running backs in here for exposure control)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (-25%)

Chicago Bears

Key Player: Mitchell Trubisky

Setting: At least one

Group: Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Cole Kmet, Jimmy Graham (Darnell Mooney is out for Wild Card Sunday)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Marquez Callaway (you can knock Kamara back by a -10% or so if you’re feeling like getting less of him, I want the volume we get without it)


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Cleveland Browns

Key Player: Baker Mayfield

Setting: At least one

Group: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Kareem Hunt (+15%), Austin Hooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nick Chubb (-35%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, James Washington (+25%)

New Orleans Saints

Key Player: Drew Brees

Setting: At least one

Group: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Marquez Callaway

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller, Cole Kmet, Jimmy Graham, David Montgomery (-10%) (I just want to take a little off the top with Montgomery here)

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger

Setting: At least one

Group: Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, James Washington (+25%), James Conner (-15%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nick Chubb (-20% for exposure control)

Tennessee Titans

Key Player: Ryan Tannehill

Setting: At least one

Group: A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (-10%), Derrick Henry (-20%), Anthony Firkser (controlling just a bit of Smith and a fair swath of Henry shares)

Opposing Setting: At most one (I’m going to let this one fly without a run-back in the few that we’ll get coming up that way)

Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, Miles Boykin, Gus Edwards (-35%), J.K. Dobbins (-25%) (we’ll still get the running backs a bit, they were both coming up in the 30% range in Tannehill stacks without the downgrades, far more than I wanted)


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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