Monday Night Football for Week 9 features an inter-conference battle between the Bears and Steelers. The line on this game has hovered around -5.5 in favor of the Steelers all week and has a game total of just 39.5. The Steelers do not have a ton of injury news to report, but the Bears do, as they will be without their best player in Khalil Mack. The good news is that David Montgomery seems likely to return for this game. He has not been fully confirmed as playing yet, but all reports have him likely to play. Darnell Mooney showed up on the injury report mid-week as well. Mid-week injury pop-ups are never good, and Mooney is questionable to play in this game.
Week 9 Monday Night Football NFL PrizePicks
Justin Fields Over 174.5 Yards Passing
Even for a player on the Bears, this passing total on Justin Field is insanely low tonight. Fields has done nothing to earn respect in 2021, but he has gone well over this number in three of his last five starts and has thrown the ball at least 27 times in the last three games. That may not seem like much, but this PrizePicks total does not even have him within 10 yards of 200 on the night.
Pittsburgh has only held one quarterback under this total all season, and their secondary has been prone to big-play lapses. Fields buying enough time with his legs is not a given, but he will likely be forced to drop back more often, as the Steelers are 7-point favorites. Fields is dead last in projected yards passing this week, but he is still slated do go for over 200 yards in this spot. That is an over 25-yard difference and worth attacking with an over.
Chase Claypool Over 51.5 Yards Receiving
Chase Claypool is locked into an every-down role for Pittsburgh — who love to get their star players the ball as much as possible — and he gets a great matchup against one of the worst secondaries in the league. It was only a couple of weeks ago that the Bears give up four touchdowns to the Buccaneers’ elite receiver crew, and the Steelers have their own version of that on the outside.
Claypool is going to have a three-inch advantage over either of the Bears corners, who both rank well outside the top 50 in PFF grades this year (Kindle Vildor is the highest ranked at 93rd). The Bears have allowed the ninth-most yards per pass attempt and have given up the second-most touchdowns to the position on the year. There is a great chance for Claypool to go for a couple of big plays, and he is projected for over 55 yards receiving.
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Allen Robinson Over 34.5 Yards Receiving
This game has an over/under of just 39.5, so the low player totals are not surprising. Still, who would have thought Allen Robinson would have such a low prop in 2021? Robinson’s season high on the year is a measly 65 yards, and he has only gone over this prop three times in seven games this season. However, Robinson has had big seasons with terrible quarterbacks before, so he should eventually figure out how to be productive with a rookie quarterback.
Robinson was averaging over 74 yards per game with the Bears over the last two seasons, and his Awesemo projections for this week respect that production a little. He is projected for over 45 yards against Pittsburgh, making this 34.5 total look too good to be true. It is possible this game will turn out just as ugly as it appears on paper, but there are too many highly skilled receivers to not be bullish on these totals. Take the over on these low passing numbers tonight, as this seems like an overreaction in the PrizePicks markets.
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