Monday Night Football for Week 7 features an NFC Conference battle between the Seahawks and Saints. The line on this game has moved between -4 and -4.5 in favor of the Saints all week and has a game total of 41.5. These two teams look headed in opposite directions, as the Seahawks defense has been in the bottom third of the league in most defensive categories this year and is without Russell Wilson and Chris Carson. The Saints are still without Michael Thomas, although he is close to returning to the field. The major injury news pertaining to this game is likely running back Alex Collins, who is listed as questionable but is expected to play. Taysom Hill is also out for the Saints, which could mean more red-zone touches for their remaining skill players.
Week 7 Monday Night Football NFL PrizePicks
Alvin Kamara Over 30.5 Yards Receiving
Alvin Kamara is going to play nearly every snap, as the Saints are without backup running back Tony Jones, red-zone threat Taysom Hill and No. 2 receiver Deonte Harris. Kamara is coming off his best receiving day of 2021, as he had eight targets in Week 5 and should see that uptick continue. The Seahawks do not defend anything well and have given up an average of 6.5 receptions per game to opposing running backs.
The projections have Kamara going for over 35 yards receiving, and these big gaps in expectation and player totals are spots to attack. The only real fear is Geno Smith being so bad on the other side that Kamara will barely need to catch the ball. However, there is the added bonus of backing an explosive player against a bad defense, and he could hit the over on one big play. It is a bigger total for a running back to hit in what could be a slow-paced game, but the over is the play, as Kamara figures to be heavily involved in all facets.
Jameis Winston Over 16 Fantasy Points
This is a low total for any NFL quarterback in any situation, but particularly for one playing against the Seahawks. Seattle has allowed the fourth-most yards passing this season, and teams playing the Seahawks are throwing the ball 39 times per game. The Saints are a low-passing offense, with just 24 attempts per game this season, but there should be some more passes in this spot from Jameis Winston, who could also see a few more carries in this spot with Hill out of the lineup. Winston has hit at least 19 yards rushing in three of his five games on the year.
Seattle is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which is 10th worst in the NFL, and the Saints have a running back who fits into their scheme as a receiver. Winston should be able to find some easy dump-offs. He is projected for over 17.5 fantasy points in this spot and is a solid over target.
Alex Collins Under 47.5 Yards Rushing
At its face this is a low total, and Pete Carroll will try to run the ball to avoid Smith face planting again. However, Collins is questionable and is facing a tough opponent in the Saints. New Orleans might be the toughest opponent an opposing running back can get, as they are allowing just 3.3 yards per carry against this season. Collins also has to worry about competition for his carries, as Rashaad Penny is back from injured reserve and DeeJay Dallas was productive in the passing game last week, converting on all five of his targets while playing on over 30% of the snaps.
Collins has a projected total around his current PrizePicks line, but the presence of Penny is worrisome. Collins could even be activated as an emergency back while Dallas and Penny share reps. Considering the low projection and matchup, this smaller total is an over play.
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