Monday Night Football for Week 6 features an AFC Conference battle between the Titans and Bills. The line on this game has moved between -5.5 and -6 in favor of the Bills all week and features a game total of 53. Both teams enter this game leading their respective divisions, but the Bills also need a win to keep up with the AFC-leading Ravens at 5-1. The Bills do not have much to mention on the injury report, while the Titans look like they will be getting back offseason signings Julio Jones and Bud Dupree. The big news is with wide receiver A.J. Brown, who is now questionable due to a non-COVID illness. Using Awesemo projections, listed below are top PrizePicks targets for the fifth Monday Night game of the year.
Week 6 Monday Night Football NFL PrizePicks
Stefon Diggs Over 0.5 Touchdowns Receiving
Red-zone play calling can be super volatile, but this setup for Stefon Diggs is worth playing. The Titans defense has already given up eight touchdowns to the wide receiver position in 2021, and big-name receivers like DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Lockett have posted monster games against the Tennessee secondary. The Titans give up big plays (7.9 yards per pass attempt), and the Bills average 37 pass attempts per game (11th most in the NFL).
There is more here than just a good matchup, though. Buffalo has attempted the second-most red-zone passes in the NFL through five weeks, yet Diggs has just one touchdown for the year. He has caught six or more touchdowns in each of his last four seasons, so in all likelihood some positive touchdown regression should be coming. The Awesemo stat projections for the week agree this is a good spot for him to break his slump as they give him an over 50% chance to score here. Take the over on Diggs tonight finding the end zone in prime time.
Ryan Tannehill Over 16.5 Yards Rushing
Ryan Tannehill does not get mentioned with mobile quarterbacks very often, but it is an underrated part of his game, as he was a wide receiver in college. He only dropped back 22 times last week in Tennessee’s win over Jacksonville, but he still managed 21 yards rushing on just three carries. Tannehill has averaged 3.5 carries per game over his last four starts and projects for more dropbacks (and more potential scrambles) against Buffalo. Teams playing the Bills have averaged 35 pass attempts per game (12th most in the league), and Tennessee is a 6-point underdogs, which means the game flow is likely to push his dropbacks up late in the game.
The Awesemo projections also see this as a good over play. Tannehill is projected for over 21 yards rushing this week, so there is a significant gap to attack. While his rushing totals went down a bit last year, Tannehill has hit the over on this mark in three of his last four games and in six of his last seven going back to last season. It is enough to make this over one of the strongest plays of the slate.
Josh Allen Over 287.5 Yards Passing
Josh Allen is in the middle of the MVP race and playing some very efficient football. He cracked 300 yards passing last week against a brutal Kansas City defense on just 25 pass attempts and gets another weak defense in Tennessee. The Titans give up big plays in bunches and rank fifth-to-last in yards per pass attempt and sixth-to-last in yards per play.
The sheer volume of plays expected in this game also points to the over. Tennessee and Buffalo rank first and second in plays per game, and the last three quarterbacks to face Buffalo all saw 60 or more snaps. That kind of volume should push Allen close to 40 pass attempts here given how often Buffalo takes to the air. This passing line is high, but Allen’s recent form and the opponent point to the over.
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