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Week 10 NFL PrizePicks for the Sunday Main Slate | Matt Ryan & D’Andre Swift

Geoff Ulrich

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Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks Main slate breakdown. In this article we’re looking at the best Fantasy Scores to target for the Week 10 Sunday main slate. If you’re new to the site, PrizePicks allows you to bundle over or under selections into parlays for big payouts. So, from each game we’re offered a fantasy total or prop (single stats DFS) amount on select players and then need to make a selection as to whether that player will go over or under the total.

Using the Awesemo weekly DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing TDs) and the Awesemo Prop Tool — which projects specific total for each player — I’ll be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and hopefully provide a good guide as to how to build your PrizePicks tickets.

PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Scores DFS Picks: Week 10 Sunday Slate

QB: Matt Ryan over 275.5 passing yards

The Falcons come into this game averaging 38.0 pass attempts per game. Matt Ryan has now completed over 70% of his passes in three of his last four starts and should be in a game environment here where him reaching 40+ passes has a solid potential of happening. The Awesemo DFS stats on Ryan this week have him going for over 290.0 passing yards and he’s now hit the over on his over/under mark this year in four of his last five starts. The Falcons passing game is in a good spot here and Ryan’s over is one we want attack on Prizepicks this week.

Other Picks:

  • Ryan Tannehill under 250.5 passing yards:  Ryan Tannehill has thrown the ball less than 30-times in three of his last four starts and faces off against an opponent here in the Saints who play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Tannehill’s over/under here seems inflated (perhaps based off Derrick Henry being out) and he’s projected to go well under his Prizeepicks total on Awesemo this week.
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RB: D’Andre Swift over 43.5 rushing yards

D’Andre Swift comes into this game with low sentiment after posting a dud a couple of weeks ago when he was the mega chalk in daily fantasy. His role hasn’t changed at all since then and he’s locked into a huge usage role where he plays on over 70% of the snaps. Ensuring Swift’s big usage in this game will be the fact that Jamaal Williams has now been ruled out again for this week. The Steelers may be -7.5 favorites here but they’re hardly a dominant squad and allowed a 100-yard rusher two weeks ago, while also allowing David Montgomery to go for 4.8 yards per carry against them last week. Swift has averaged 13 carries in his last three games and that kind of volume should be enough to push him way over this small total. He’s projected for over 65 rush yards on Awesemo this week making him a smash over in this spot.

Other Picks

  • Michael Carter over 37.5 rushing yards:  Another player whose rushing total looks small relative to his overall usage and opportunity is rookie Michael Carter. Carter has averaged 13 carries in his last three games and gone well over this amount in his last two. He’s also a strong projected over play on Awesemo here.

WR: CeeDee Lamb over 65.5 receiving yards

There’s lots to love about this Atlanta-Dallas game environment for fantasy and betting purposes here. Another player from this game who I like attacking with an over in this spot is Cee Dee Lamb. The wide receiver is leading the Cowboys in targets on the season and sometimes gets forgotten about as he still shares the spotlight with Amari Cooper. Cooper is dealing with a hamstring injury though and Lamb comes in averaging 2.0 more yards per catch than Cooper on the season. The Falcons bring almost no pressure so Dak Prescott should be looking for Lamb a lot down field here. Lamb is projected for well over 70 receiving yards here so his 65.5 total makes him a great over target too.

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Other Picks

  • Adam Thielen under 60.5 receiving yards: The news out of Minnesota this week is that they need to get Justin Jefferson the ball more. Neither Minnesota receiver has huge projections this week on Awesemo (Thielen is projected for well under 60 receiving yards) but Adam Thielen makes for the better fade target here given the probability we see some targets flow back to Jefferson.

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TE: Pat Freiermuth over 35.5 receiving yards

There’s more targets up for grabs this week in Pittsburgh where Chase Claypool has now been ruled out for the week. Rookie tight-end Pat Freiermuth has been a nice story on his own merit this year and comes into this week averaging 48 yards receiving over his last three games. His Awesemo projection this week has him popping for a similar type of outcome here with over 44 receiving yards. The Lions have allowed a mammoth 13.48 yards per reception to opposing tight ends so far in 2021, and with Freiermuth already averaging 6.5 targets in his last three games (and with more potential with Claypool out) his over here grades out extremely well as a play.


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