Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks main-slate breakdown for Week 2. We will be taking an early look at which single-stat DFS totals you should be targeting in NFL on PrizePicks. If you are new to the site, PrizePicks is different than making your traditional NFL DFS picks. Rather, you get the opportunity to bundle over or under selections on a player’s fantasy points into parlays for big payouts.
Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing touchdowns) and prop tools, I will be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and give you an idea as to why they might be good targets. To play, pair at least two plays together (up to five), pick over or under the given projected fantasy score or specific stats for players, and you are set.
PrizePicks Fantasy NFL Picks: Week 2 Sunday Slate
QB Russell Wilson Over 275.5 Yards Passing
The Seahawks trounced a weaker Colts pass defense in Week, with Russell Wilson throwing for 254 yards on just 23 attempts. They take on another weaker secondary here in the Titans, who should also put pressure on the Seahawks to throw the ball more. Opponents against Tennessee threw 38.5 times last year, the fourth most in the league.
The increased opportunities here for Wilson should do wonders for his passing totals, and he looked extremely comfortable in new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s offense. Wilson connected with eight different receivers in Week 1 and faces a Titans pass defense that allowed 8.8 yards per pass attempt in their loss to the Cardinals (sixth-worst mark of Week 1). Wilson is projected for over 285 yards passing this week in the DFS stats and prop tools on Awesemo, making him a solid over play on PrizePicks for Week 2.
Jimmy Garoppolo had a big Week 1, going for 314 yards on just 25 pass attempts. He is projected to go for 30 yards more than his current 247.5 total on PrizePicks, making him a good over target as well
One of the best under targets on the board this week is Sam Darnold under 239.5 yards passing. He is projected to go well under this total in a tough matchup with a Saints defense that completely stymied Aaron Rodgers in Week 1.
RB David Montgomery Over 59.5 Yards Rushing
David Montgomery had a surprisingly good showing in Week 1 against a tough Rams defense. He averaged 6.8 yards per carry and only lost six carries to backup Damien Williams. Williams may be involved more as a pass catcher than originally thought, but Montgomery is going to carry the early-down work, which makes the over on this low rushing total enticing for Week 1.
Cincinnati had a solid Week 1, limiting Dalvin Cook to just 61 yards rushing on 20 attempts, but their run defense was one of the worst in the league last year (allowed 5 yards per carry). Regardless of the matchup, the outputs on the Awesemo tools are bullish for Montgomery here, as he is projected for over 70 yards rushing in Week 2. Considering there is a much tighter spread (Chicago is favored by -2.5) Montgomery could push for 20-plus carries and smash this total.
Awesemo’s projections and prop tools love Najee Harris this week against a weak Raiders run defense. He played every snap for Pittsburgh in Week 1, and at 68.5 yards rushing, his PrizePicks total makes for a great over target
For a running back under, look at Nyheim Hines under 25.5 yards rushing. The Rams are favored by 4 points and are the better team, which should push Hines into more of a pass-catching role.
WR Cooper Kupp Over 65.5 Yards Receiving
Cooper Kupp ended Week 1 with seven receptions, 108 yards and a touchdown. The production was great, but the volume was better. Matthew Stafford threw the ball just 25 times in Week 1, but 10 of those targets went to Kupp. The 38% market share of targets may regress a little, but it also offers an idea of who Stafford views as his primary target in this offense. While many figured Robert Woods would be the primary receiver here, he was out-targeted by both Kupp and Tyler Higbee.
Kupp’s receiving total here is not small, but the matchup makes up for that. Indianapolis allowed 10.5 yards per pass attempt to Wilson in Week 1 (fourth most in the league) and are suffering with depth issues due to an injury to cornerback Xavier Rhodes. The Awesemo prop tool agrees this is a great spot to smash the over again too, as Kupp is projected for well over 70 yards receiving this week. Keep going over on Kupp until his target share declines or his line increases.
DeAndre Hopkins had a great Week 1, going for 83 yards on six receptions. His 87.5 total in Week 2 looks high, but the matchup with Minnesota (who allowed rookie Ja’Marr Chase to go for 101 yards) has the Awesemo projections leaning over.
TE Tyler Higbee Over 43.5 Yards Receiving
Higbee was a bit of a surprise performer in Week 1. He went for 68 yards and caught five passes on six targets. The performance could just be an outlier, but there were positive indicators that suggest otherwise. Higbee played on every snap for the Rams, which suggests his passing role is locked in. He was also the only Rams tight end to receive a target and was second on the Rams in targets in the game, with six.
It is likely that Robert Woods’ production will step up a little eventually, but Higbee is locked into a secondary role, which makes sense given the departure of Gerald Everett and Josh Reynolds in the offseason. The Colts also allowed five receptions and 57 yards to Seattle’s tight ends in Week 1, and Seattle only threw the ball 23 times. The over for Higbee rates very well this week.
Dallas Goedert saw five targets in Week 1 and faces a San Francisco defense that let T.J. Hockenson go for eight receptions and 97 yards in Week 1.
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