Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks Main slate breakdown. In this article we’re looking at the best Fantasy Scores to target for the main Sunday slate. If you’re new to the site, PrizePicks allows you to bundle over or under selections into parlays for big payouts. So, from each game we’re offered a fantasy total or prop (single stats DFS) amount on select players and then need to make a selection as to whether that player will go over or under the total.
Using the Awesemo weekly DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing TDs) and the Awesemo Prop Tool — which projects specific total for each player — I’ll be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and hopefully provide a good guide as to how to build your PrizePicks tickets.
PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Scores DFS Picks: Sunday Slate
QB: Justin Fields over 17.5 fantasy points
Rookie Justin Fields performed poorly in backup duty last week, which has created an opportunity here in Week 3 to buy low on his props. The Bears rookie had a couple of turnovers and didn’t convert any touchdowns against the Bengals, but he also had a perfect long touchdown pass dropped and also nearly ran for a score. His prop here would likely be a lot higher if either of those events had occurred. What we do know about Fields is that he’ll run. He’s already averaged nearly 6 yards per carry in the pros and took 10 carries alone last week in limited action.
The Browns have also been a good opponent for opposing quarterbacks, from a fantasy perspective. They’ve given up 8.4 yards per pass attempt (ninth-worst in the league) and have given up the second-most fantasy points already to the position. Fields’ fantasy score projection in the Awesemo tools this week isn’t off the charts, but its over a point more than his current PrizePicks over/under, making him a great over target at the quarterback position.
- Matt Ryan under 20.0 fantasy points: Ryan grades out as one of the better under plays at quarterback this week, as his Awesemo fantasy score projection has him at nearly 3 points under his current PrizePicks line. Ryan is fifth-worst in yards per attempt so far this year and the Falcons have just a 22.25 implied team total in what could be one of the slower-paced games of Week 3.
RB: Najee Harris under 17.0 fantasy points
Through two games, Najee Harris has played on all but a handful of snaps for the Steelers. That kind of workload is to be respected, but his efficiency does need to be questioned. He’s currently averaging just 3.2 yards per carry on the year and has also yet to find the end zone as a rusher. Harris has made up for it by becoming involved in the passing game, but he’s also never going to be a highly targeted part of this offense given how elite the Steelers wide receiver corps is, and has only caught six balls through two games.
The matchup here also may not be what is seems. Pittsburgh are -3 home favorites but this game has just a 43.5 over/under. The Bengals have also allowed just 3.4 yards per carry to opponents, the seventh-best mark in the league, and have now dished out slow fantasy games to Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery. Harris’ fantasy projection on Awesemo this week remains decent but it’s not as bullish as it was last week when he was near the top in this category. He’s listed a couple points under the current PrizePicks over/under making him a solid under target here.
- David Montgomery under 14.5 fantasy points: If we like Fields to potentially take 10-plus rushes today, and perhaps take a rushing touchdown, then we should likely be bearish on Montgomery here, too. Awesemo has fantasy projection 2-plus points lower than this and, with an elite rushing quarterback now calling the shots for Chicago, his under looks like a great target for Week 3.
WR: Chase Claypool over 14.5 fantasy points
The Steelers will be without Diontae Johnson this week, who has already taken 22 targets on the season. That leaves a massive void to fill and you have to like second-year man Chase Claypool to fill some of that void. Through two games, Claypool is third on Pittsburgh in targets, but has played on over 70% of the snaps while getting targeted almost as much as JuJu Smith-Schuster, despite Schuster playing more snaps. Claypool has yet to find the end zone, but his upside is still clearly in tact as he’s been the Steelers best downfield presence, by far, and comes in averaging 19.1 yards per catch. The long touchdowns may come and this week though and he may also expand his route tree a bit to take some shorter passes too to make up for Johnson’s absence.
The projections this week have Claypool going right around his current over/under number on PrizePicks, but this one does stick out as a number to be over on. The Bengals have been stout against the run, but still have allowed a 70% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Claypool could break free here against a group of Bengals corners that could be due for some regression. He’s a good over target for Week 3.
- Mike Williams under 15.0: The projections this week are definitely calling for a little regression on Williams’ hot start, too. They have going for 3 points lower than his current PrizePicks over/under. Teams due to tend to throw more against the Chiefs, but KC are great at limiting opposing teams wide receivers and have only allowed one 100-yard game to opposing wide outs in their last five regular season games.
TE: George Kittle under 16.0 fantasy points
George Kittle remains a big part of the 49ers offense, but has also taken a clear back seat to Deebo Samuel (20 targets in two games) in 2021. Kittle comes in with just nine targets through two games, but is still playing on almost every snap (and is being used as a blocker). The role has led to two wins for the 49ers but has meant a slower start for fantasy purposes. Kittle’s also averaging just 11.2 yards per catch so far in 2021, which is the lowest mark of his career so far, from a year-by-year perspective.
Kittle could explode at any moment for a big game (and Green Bay’s defense has been terrible through two weeks) but the tight end’s projection here does still stick out as one to fade. His fantasy projection for Week 3 in the Awesemo tools have him going for four points less than his current over/under on PrizePicks, and for under 5-receptions. Kittle’s total is big, even for a legit WR1, so even if he were still leading the 49ers in receiving this one would be hard to like as an over. The name value here means we’re still getting beefed up fantasy props, which makes him a nice under target for Sunday Night Football.
- Jared Cook over 8.0 fantasy points: Cook is taking on a Chiefs team who has allowed 6.5 receptions per game to the tight end position so far in 2021. He’s played on over 55% of the snaps for the Chargers through two weeks and has also seen three red zone target (third on the team). His role as a secondary option in a game with a 55.5 over/under makes him a good over target on this very low total.
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