We will be taking a look at which single-stat DFS totals you should be targeting on PrizePicks for NFL Week 3. If you are new to the site, PrizePicks is different than making your traditional NFL DFS picks. Rather, you get the opportunity to bundle over or under selections on a player’s fantasy points into parlays for big payouts. Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing touchdowns) and prop tools, I will be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and give you an idea as to why they might be good targets. To play, pair at least two plays together (up to five), pick over or under the given projected fantasy score or specific stats for players, and you are set.
PrizePicks Fantasy NFL Picks: Week 3 Sunday Slate
QB Matthew Stafford Over 290.5 Yards Passing
The Rams take on the Buccaneers this week in a matchup of two top teams in the NFC. Quarterbacks facing the Buccaneers so far have thrown an average of 53 times per game, and even dating back to last year, opponents have attempted more passes against Tampa Bay than any team in the league. Matthew Stafford enters this game averaging 10.7 yards per pass attempt (third best in the NFL), and Tampa’s secondary is now banged and has ceded the most receptions to opposing wide receivers in the league. Everything points to a heavy passing game plan from the Rams, especially given the Buccaneers allow just 3 yards per carry. The betting prop tool on Awesemo agrees, as they project Stafford to go well over 300 yards passing on the day. This is one of the single biggest discrepancies from a projection to PrizePicks total on the entire slate.
Bonus: Russell Wilson Over 285.5 Yards Passing
Russell Wilson was the main over pick at quarterback last week, and he is a great over target again here against a Vikings secondary that allows 9.3 yards per pass attempt (fifth worst in the NFL).
Bonus: Baker Mayfield Under 247.5 Yards Passing
Baker Mayfield projects to see some regression in his passing numbers here and makes for a good under target on this number. Cleveland is a heavy favorite and may rely on Nick Chubb more given their injuries at wide receiver.
RB Joe Mixon Over 62.5 Yards Rushing
The Bengals have been one of the most run-heavy teams so far through two weeks as they have attempted 28 rushes per game, despite not having a mobile quarterback. Joe Mixon is second in the league in rushing attempts with 49, and with the Bengals looking like they will do whatever it takes to protect Joe Burrow early in the season, he should get a lot again this week. The Steelers sound like a horrible matchup at first glance, but volume is everything in NFL DFS, and Bills running back Devin Singletary was able to post 6.2 yard per carry against Pittsburgh.
This is more of a case of trusting the Bengals to keep doing what they are doing, though, and there have been lots of indicators that they will be staying away from pass-heavy gameplans for the foreseeable future. The Awesemo projections also see this total on Mixon as way to low, as he has the fourth-highest rushing total on the slate and projected for 20 more yards than his current total on PrizePicks. The over is again the preferred play.
Bonus: Ty’Son Williams Under 60.5 Yards Rushing
The Ravens started to mix in their newly signed running backs a little more in Week 2, with Latavius Murray seeing an uptick in snaps and Devonta Freeman also getting involved. If the Ravens are ahead big against Detroit, Ty’Son Williams’ carries could get cut into again.
Bonus: Damien Harris Over 64.5 Yards Rushing
Damien Harris had a bit of a muted Week 2 but has already taken 39 carries through two weeks. New Orleans is an elite run defense, but the Patriots are 3-point road favorites and likely to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible again. Harris is another solid projected over target.
WR Kenny Golladay Over 58.5 Yards Receiving
Kenny Golladay’s start to his Giants career has not been overwhelmingly positive. He has only seen 14 targets (which puts him five behind Sterling Shepard) and has been outplayed by Darius Slayton too, who has also seen 13 targets. The squeaky wheel often gets the grease, however, and Golladay’s recent outburst on the sideline means he is likely due for a bit of a target uptick soon. This week against Atlanta might be the prime spot for such an outbreak, as Atlanta again features a weak pass rush and pass defense that make them great targets for opposing wide receivers.
Atlanta is averaging just two sacks per game this year, and that should allow Daniel Jones more time in the pocket to look for Golladay downfield. Despite his lack of production, Golladay is averaging 14.2 yards per catch with Jones, so the extra time should really help. He is projected to breakout here too, as he has a receiving total set just under 70 yards for the week, which is 10 more yards than his current line on PrizePicks.
Bonus: Cooper Kupp Over 77.5 Yards Receiving
Cooper Kupp smashed the over last week, posting 163 yards and 18.1 yards per catch. Now he faces a Tampa secondary that has allowed the most catches to wide receivers through two games. His total remains too low.
Bonus: Terry McLaurin Under 75.5 Yards Receiving
Terry McLaurin’s total looks a little high at first glance here, especially given his quarterback situation, and the model tends to agree. His projection is slightly under this in what could be a tough matchup against a solid Bills secondary.
TE Kyle Pitts Under 55.5 Yards Receiving
Kyle Pitts has had a muted start to his NFL career. He has seen 14 targets and played on 78% of the offensive snaps in Week 2 but also averaged just 7.8 yards per catch in Week 1. Pitts posted 73 yards in Week 2, but that was against the Buccaneers, and Atlanta threw the ball 46 times in that game. Pitts may be more of a Matt Ryan issue, as Ryan is averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt in 2021.
The Giants are no world beaters, but this game features two inefficient offenses. Pitts now seems to be attached to a quarterback who is past his prime and who may hold Pitts back from the high receiving totals. The Awesemo projections agree with this sentiment, as they have project Pitts for well under 55.5 yards in this subpar matchup that projects as a close but potentially ugly offensive game.
Bonus: Darren Waller Over 72.5 Yards Receiving
Waller had a slightly muted follow-up to his big Week 1, as he grabbed just five passes for 65 yards. He averaged 13 yards per catch in that game, though, and gets a slightly better matchup in Week 3. His target share is not dipping anytime soon, and taking advantage of any slightly muted line by going over will likely be the profitable play on him all season.
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