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Week 5 NFL PrizePicks for the Sunday Main Slate | Trey Lance & Justin Herbert

Geoff Ulrich

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Week 5 NFL PrizePicks DFS plays lineup predictions projections ownership rankings fantasy football Sunday Main SLate

Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks Main slate breakdown. In this article we’re looking at the best Fantasy Scores to target for the Week 5 Sunday main slate. If you’re new to the site, PrizePicks allows you to bundle over or under selections into parlays for big payouts. So, from each game we’re offered a fantasy total or prop (single stats DFS) amount on select players and then need to make a selection as to whether that player will go over or under the total.

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Using the Awesemo weekly DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing TDs) and the Awesemo Prop Tool — which projects specific total for each player — I’ll be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and hopefully provide a good guide as to how to build your PrizePicks tickets.

PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Scores DFS Picks: Week 5 Sunday Slate

QB: Trey Lance over 20.0 fantasy points

The 49ers have confirmed that rookie Trey Lance will be getting his first official start this weekend against the Cardinals. As with all rookies, there’s a wide range of outcomes here for Lance in his first start, especially against a solid defense like the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed just 6.2 yards per pass attempt in 2021 and is 10th in sacks per game. Still, even if the Cardinals dominate this game, given what we’ve seen from Lance in limited action (last week and in preseason) he has the tools to rack up some major points, especially if he ends up seeing a lot of prevent defense last in this game.

Lance took seven carries and averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt last week in his limited action against the Seahawks and looked more comfortable as the game progressed. The added rushing in the regular season vs. preseason (where he took just one carry) is something to note here and the game flow against a solid Cardinals offense should favor a lot of Lance dropbacks, which means plenty of of rush and pass attempts (teams are throwing the ball 35.8 times against Arizona this year). The Awesemo model agrees, as it has Lance projected with the fifth-highest total on the main Sunday slate and slated to go over 20 fantasy points. He makes for a solid over target at quarterback in Week 5.

Other Picks:

  • Justin Herbert under 21.5 fantasy points: Herbert is coming off a solid game and huge win against the Raiders, so it’s hard to think of him as an under candidate here. His total does look a little inflated in Week 5 though. Cleveland has an elite pass rush and has allowed just a 58% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Herbert projects as a solid under target on Awesemo at his current over/under total as a result.
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RB: Damien Williams over 12.0 fantasy points

In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Bears will be without David Montgomery this week. While losing their lead rusher may hamper their offense, former Chief Damien Williams has looked solid in relief work this year and managed 6.8 yards per carry last week against the Lions on eight carries. Montgomery was averaging right around 20 touches a game, so Williams isn’t just inheriting a small role here. There’s also a the Bears depth chart, which is paper thin and features only Khalil Herbert at the moment, who could manage just seven yards on three carries last week.

The Raiders have been a great opponent for opposing running backs, too, allowing 4.9 yards per carry against and ceding six touchdowns thus far. When we start to add all these factors up, Williams’ 12 fantasy total here starts to look drastically small and the Awesemo site model this week agrees. He has a points projection of over 14 fantasy points for Week 5 and grades out as one of the strongest over candidates of the week at this total. The opportunities will be there on a Bears team lacking other options.

Other Picks

  • Leonard Fournette over 13.0 fantasy points:  Another running back that graded out very strong this week on Awesemo (and isn’t getting much fanfare) is Fournette. Tampa Bay has a 29-point implied team total and the Dolphins have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position so far. Fournette’s fantasy projection on the site model this week has him going for well over his 13 mark.

WR: Terry McLaurin under 18.5 fantasy points

Terry McLaurin is another player coming off a strong week (123 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets) but may be a good fade candidate in Week 5. The matchup last week against Atlanta was one of the best a wide receiver could have hoped for, but this week against the Saints is, objectively, one of the worst. The Saints have allowed just 6.9 yards per pass attempt and also are playing at the slowest pace in the league through four weeks. There’s also the matchup here, which could be problematic as Marshawn Lattimore is capable of shutting down teams’ best options and has allowed just a 52% completion rate on targets thrown his way in 2021.

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This game definitely has the potential to slow and boring but even with all the factors I’ve mentioned above, the biggest indicator comes from the projections, which has McLauirin pegged for under 14 fantasy points, and 4 points below his over/under total on PrizePicks. McLaurin has the ability to break off a couple of big plays and hit this, but with a tough matchup and the potential for a much slower-pace game in Week 5, he sets up as a better under play.

Other Picks

  • Kenny Golladay over 13.5 fantasy points:  One receiver who gets a boost from his matchup this week is Golladay. The Cowboys have given up six touchdowns to wide receivers already and Golladay’s opportunities in Week 5 should stay strong with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton out again. His 13.5 fantasy total looks awfully low considering the Giants could push for 40 passing attempts here as they enter as 7-point underdogs.

TE: Evan Engram over 6.5 fantasy points

The Giants enter this Week 5 matchup with the Cowboys down Slayton and Shepard for the second straight week. Through two games, Evan Engram has averaged six targets and took in five catches last week against the Saints. Engram gets a far better matchup here against Dallas, who have been poor at covering opposing tight ends for the last few years, and have already allowed three touchdowns to the position this year. Engram has destroyed the Cowboys for fantasy purposes over his career, too, going for 40 catches and four touchdowns in eight career games against them.

The total here is the biggest attraction, though, as a 6.5-point over/under means one big catch and run could put us close to the over, and any touchdown would put us squarely in the green. The volume has been there for Engram with the Giants’ receivers banged up and it should be there again in Week 5 with the Giants playing a team whose opponents have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game against. Taking the over on Engram grades out as the strongest play at tight end for the week.

Other Picks

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  • Tyler Conklin under 8.0 fantasy points: Tyler Conklin has seen some usage over the last few weeks but is averaging just 8 yards per catch and has gone under his current Week 5 total twice now, despite seeing over four targets in every game. Conklin needs volume to produce, and he’s stuck playing behind some elite receivers. This total looks inflated and his projection this week on Awesemo has him going well under this mark.

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