If you are new to the site, PrizePicks is different than making your traditional NFL DFS picks. Rather, you get the opportunity to bundle over or under selections on a player’s fantasy points into parlays for big payouts. Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing touchdowns) and prop tools, I will be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and give you an idea as to why they might be good targets. To play, pair at least two plays together (up to five), pick over or under the given projected fantasy score or specific stats for players, and you are set. Below are some of the top single-stat DFS totals you should be targeting on PrizePicks for NFL Week 5.
PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Picks: Week 5 Sunday Slate
QB Tom Brady Over 289.5 Yards Passing
The Buccaneers come into this game averaging 46 pass attempts per game, 2.5 more than second-place Pittsburgh. Their defense has not been as stout this year either, allowing over 327 yards passing and 26.3 real points against per game. Perhaps the matchup against Jacoby Brissett will get them on track, but considering they just allowed Mac Jones to complete 77% of his passes last week, Brady is unlikely to see a huge decline in pass attempts.
Miami has some playmakers on defense, but they are still just league average in terms of yards per attempt allowed (6.8). The bottom line is that Tampa has been a pass-heavy team all season (whether ahead or behind), and only a big game from their defense seems likely to stop Brady from throwing 40-plus times in this game. The Awesemo projections also have this total pegged as far too low, as Brady is projected for over 310 yards passing, making it one of the best over props on the main slate to attack. Maybe later in the year Brady will be a fade in cold weather, but for now, taking the over on these smaller totals is the right way to play Brady.
Bonus: Jacoby Brissett Over 225.5 Yards Passing
As much as the projections like taking the over on Brady, they like taking the over on Brissett nearly as much. Tampa has allowed the second-most yards passing to opposing quarterbacks, and teams are throwing the ball four more times per game against Tampa than any other team. Brissett’s Awesemo projection this week has him north of 240 yards, making him a great over target.
Bonus: Dak Prescott Under 284.5 Yards Passing
If looking for a quarterback to target for an under, Dak Prescott is someone to consider this week. He has thrown for under 240 yards in three straight games and faces a Giants defense that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry. Awesemo has him going for a solid fantasy week but still well under 280 yards passing in a game where the Cowboys could run the ball a lot.
RB James Robinson Over 61.5 Yards Rushing
In terms of biggest discrepancies between Awesemo projections and prop total on PrizePicks, James Robinson stands out as the clear best target this week. He has 20 or more touches in the last two games and faces a Titans team this week who again ranks in the top half of the league for pace of play. Robinson comes into this game averaging just under 5 yards per carry on the season, and as his touches have risen, the Jaguars’ competitiveness has also gone up, so there is zero reason to think he will suddenly get phased out in Week 5.
The Awesemo projections agree, as they have going for just under 20 carries and well over 80 yards rushing. Part of the equation for Robinson to hit the over is Jacksonville not falling behind early, but Tennessee is banged up on offense and has been in close games three weeks running. With his usage building to bell-cow levels, Robinson’s over/under on PrizePicks is well worth picking on. He is the top play on a slate that has more than one strong play.
Bonus: Damien Harris Over 59.5 Yards Rushing
Damien Harris has faced a couple of great run defenses in a row but finally gets a reprieve this week against Houston. Teams have rushed 30.8 times per game against Houston thus far (sixth most in the league), and that number may even rise this week against New England, who enter off a close loss and as 9-point favorites. Harris is one of a handful of running backs with stronger-than-normal rushing projections and makes for a great over target.
Bonus: Saquon Barkley Over 55.5 Yards Rushing
Saquon Barkley only averaged 4.1 yards per carry last week against the Saints, but it was still a worthy effort given the Saints have only 3.1 yards per carry this season. Clearly Barkley is getting healthier as the year progresses, and his 55.5-yard rushing total makes him another strong over target, as his projection on Awesemo has him going for over 70 yards on the ground.
WR Deebo Samuel Over 73.5 Yards Receiving
Deebo Samuel has featured in columns here since the start of the season, and yet he still has low receiving totals on PrizePicks. Despite Samuel leading the league in yards after the catch and averaging 17.5 yards per catch, his receiving total for Week 5 barely cracks 70 yards. Samuel is capable of taking short passes a long way, so even if his usage drops a little this week, this yardage may still be in reach.
Samuel will have a much more mobile quarterback under center in Trey Lance, but the game flow points to a lot of passing. San Francisco enters the game as 5.5-point underdogs, and teams against the Cardinals have had to throw the ball 35.8 times per game, the 10th-highest mark in the league. The Awesemo projections agree that this is a spot to target, as they again project Samuel for well over 80 yards receiving, which makes him an easy over target on PrizePicks.
Bonus: DeAndre Hopkins Under 72.5 Yards Receiving
The Cardinals offense has been firing on all cylinders to start 2021, and part of the reason for that is that Kyler Murray has been able to spread the ball out more. DeAndre Hopkins has played nearly every snap but is just seeing 6.25 targets a game through four weeks. Teams have run the ball well against the 49ers, who have allowed 4.5 yards per carry, and another muted day for Hopkins could be in store as a result. He makes for a solid under candidate according to the Awesemo projections as well.
Bonus: Chris Godwin Over 63.5 Yards Receiving
With Tom Brady projecting for big yardage totals, it is not shocking to see a couple of his receivers post big projections either. Despite a slow Week 4, Chris Godwin is still averaging just under eight targets a game and averaged 18.8 yards per catch last week against a strong Patriots secondary. He may not get as many targets as other elite wideouts, but he is projected for well over 70 yards this week, making him a good spreadsheet over play.
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