If you are new to the site, PrizePicks is different than making your traditional NFL DFS picks. Rather, you get the opportunity to bundle over or under selections on a player’s fantasy points into parlays for big payouts. Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing touchdowns) and prop tools, I will be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and give you an idea as to why they might be good targets. To play, pair at least two plays together (up to five), pick over or under the given projected fantasy score or specific stats for players, and you are set. Below are some of the top single-stat DFS totals you should be targeting on PrizePicks for NFL Week 6.
PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Picks: Week 6 Sunday Slate
QB Joe Burrow over 264.5 passing yards
The Bengals threw 38 times last week, which is a season high. Joe Mixon is banged up, and Joe Burrow is now five weeks further into his rehab and has seen his knee hold up nicely. Cincinnati has had a ton of success passing the ball this year as Burrow is completing over 70% of his passes and has 8.8 yards per attempt on the season, which is 2 yards higher than last year.
Even if Cincinnati’s passing offense does not have another high-volume game in Week 6, there is good reason to believe Burrow will smash this over against a weak team in the Lions. Detroit is last in yards per pass attempt against this year, and all four of the quarterbacks who attempted 25 or more passes against them this season have thrown for over 250 yards. Burrow and his receivers have big projections this week, and Burrow himself is projected for well over 290 yards for the week. Do not fade the passers against Detroit, as they have been allowing so many big plays that volume is not even needed to go off against their secondary.
Bonus: Davis Mills over 185.5 passing yards
It feels like it is too easy to be on the over, but the Awesemo projections have Davis Mills going for over 235 yards (making this a +50 differential). Indianapolis also has a funnel to the pass defense (allowed over 400 yards last week), so the over here looks like a screaming value play.
Bonus: Kirk Cousins under 262.5 passing yards
Picking on Kirk Cousins via the under has worked out quite nicely the last couple of weeks. His yardage total is not crazy high, but Carolina plays at the sixth-slowest pace in the league and is only allowing 5.5 yards per attempt (second best in the league). Cousins projects for under 250 yards this week, making him a great under target.
RB Ezekiel Elliott under 84.5 rushing yards
The Cowboys meet the Patriots, who have been one of the worst matchups for opposing offensive players. New England is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry at the moment and have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. Ezekiel Elliott has looked good over his last couple of starts and comes in averaging 5.3 yards per carry while also seeing over 20 carries in two straight games. Even with that kind of production, though, there is still a chance that Dallas will turn a little bit more to the pass, and Tony Pollard has taken 10 or more carries in four straight games.
If the run game slows a bit against a tough opponent, it seems likely the Cowboys will look to cut Elliott’s work first, as Pollard seems like he’s meshed well in his current role — which also helps keep Elliott fresh going forward. Regardless of opponent, this is a big number to hit for a running back, especially one who shares snaps with another player on a weekly basis. The projections agree that this is likely the week to take a step back on Elliott despite his clear upward trend. He is projected to go under this mark by close to 10 yards, and given the matchup, being on the under seems like the right call in Week 6.
Bonus: Melvin Gordon III over 43.5 rushing yards
Melvin Gordon had a tough Week 5, going for just nine carries and 34 yards in a Denver loss. Pittsburgh’s defense is still an elite rush stopper, though, while the complete opposite can be said about Las Vegas, who is allowing 4.7 yards per carry (the sixth-worst mark in the NFL). Gordon has seen better usage in games where Denver has been ahead early, and given all that is going on in Vegas, that seems like a good bet to happen this week. He is a strong over candidate given the projections.
Bonus: Austin Ekeler over 54.5 rushing yards
Austin Ekeler comes into this game averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has seen 32 carries over his last two games. He is running with explosive power behind a solid offensive line. The Ravens have been just average against the run and should not be feared too much coming off a short week. Whatever the case, the projections have him going well over 70 yards.
WR Terry McLaurin over 77.5 receiving yards
Last week’s dud against the Saints was a little disheartening, but Terry McLaurin’s lack of production against the Saints came with a silver lining. He saw another 11 targets, which puts him in the top 10, and he has only been outpaced by Davante Adams in usage since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback. The message is clear that Washington, when it does throw the ball, will be going to McLaurin. That shows his weak quarterback situation is not going to drag him to a poor week.
Week 6 presents, an opportunity as Washington will be playing the Chiefs, who have a bottom-three pass defense. Kansas City is allowing 8.5 yards per attempt and is also getting little to no pressure on the quarterback, as they are last in the league in sacks per game. The Chiefs offense is still going to score, but also expect them to play at a faster pace due to losing their lead running back last week. McLaurin has potential, and his PrizePicks over/under is not too outlandish at 77.5 yards. He is projected to go well over 80 yards this week, and with a monster target share against one of the league’s softest defenses, only an injury is likely to stop him from achieving this.
Bonus: Ja’Marr Chase over 68.5 receiving yards
Ja’Marr Chase is playing the Lions, which is enough in itself to grab interest. He is averaging just under 20 yards a catch and is seeing usage both around the line of scrimmage and on deep targets. The season is five games deep, so this is not a mirage, and with a matchup like this, any small over/unders on Chase should garner an over play. He is projected for well over 80 yards this week in a prime matchup.
TE Noah Fant over 43.5 receiving yards
There are not many intriguing tight end props to target early in the week, as there is a smaller player pool and lots of over/unders that seem to line up with their projection. One name that stands out as a potential target, though, is Noah Fant. He is playing on nearly every snap this year for the Broncos, who are desperately thin at wide receiver, with Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler both on IR. It has not translated to a ton of big games for Fant yet, but the Broncos have faced a couple of stronger defenses the last two weeks.
The Raiders defense has been imploding slowly, and they have allowed games of 80 yards or more to Mike Gesicki and Jared Cook over their last three games, two tight ends who are serviceable but should hardly be thought of as elite players. Fant is projected for well over 50 yards receiving, making his over/under stand out. Look him to break through with some big plays against a weaker defense.
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