Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks Main slate breakdown. In this article we’re looking at the best Fantasy Scores to target for the Week 7 Sunday main slate. If you’re new to the site, PrizePicks allows you to bundle over or under selections into parlays for big payouts. So, from each game we’re offered a fantasy total or prop (single stats DFS) amount on select players and then need to make a selection as to whether that player will go over or under the total.
Using the Awesemo weekly DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing TDs) and the Awesemo Prop Tool — which projects specific total for each player — I’ll be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and hopefully provide a good guide as to how to build your PrizePicks tickets.
PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Scores DFS Picks: Week 7 Sunday Slate
QB: Daniel Jones over 16.0 fantasy points
The Giants head into Carolina this week after getting trampled last week by the Rams. Considering how many Giants receivers were banged up last week, the meeting with an elite defense like the Rams was almost unfair. The Panthers defense projects as another tough spot on paper but there is some hope here that Daniel Jones bounces back with a decent fantasy week. The Giants quarterback was hampered by a concussion in his lead-up last week but is now a week removed from that injury and will have a full week of preparation under his belt here. Jones is ranked fourth in rushing yards among all quarterbacks and is also averaging 39 pass attempts per game, a stat that should really interest us consider his very low PrizePicks prop total here.
The match-up here also suggests that Jones will likely push for 35-plus pass attempts. Carolina has defended the run well all season but the last two quarterbacks they’ve faced have averaged 40.5 pass attempts against them — and they allowed 373 yards and 7.7 yards per attempt to Kirk Cousins last week. The Giants can’t run the ball and have been allowing points at an alarming rate on defense of late. Jones should see tons of snaps here, most of which will require dropbacks. Considering his added rushing upside, his total looks well worth going over on.
- Matthew Stafford over 21.0 fantasy points: Considering I’ve harped most of the week on how good a bargain Matthew Stafford is around the industry, it would likely be disingenuous if I didn’t point out that his over/under total on PrizePicks also looks like a great bargain. He projects out with over 22.50 fantasy points in the Awesemo model and faces a Detroit defense who bleeds big plays. This is a big total but not big enough to scare us off the over on Stafford.
RB: Chuba Hubbard under 16.0 fantasy points
Chuba Hubbard has been serviceable for fantasy purposes in the absence of Christian McCaffrey. The rookie has seen 40 carries and nine targets now over his last couple of games. That said, efficiency has not exactly been his friend as he’s averaging under 4.0 yards per carry on the season and converted under 70% of his targets into catches, which is quite low for a running back. Hubbard also has to worry at least bit that his snaps will be eaten into by the likes of Royce Freeman soon, who played on a season high 32% of the snaps last week. Freeman hasn’t seen much usage yet but its clear the Panthers want him a little more involved and any slow start or mistake by Hubbard could prompt the Panthers coaches to start giving the ball more.
It’s a precarious spot then for the backup and while he’s got a solid matchup to take advantage of here, he’s also got a massive over/under of 16 fantasy points attached to him on PrizePicks this week. The projections on Awesemo don’t hate Hubbard and recognize the value in his role, but he’s also projected for just 13.07 points this weeks, which is well under what we’re being asked to hit here. The under rates out as a solid play.
- Chase Edmonds over 11.0 fantasy points: Chase Edmonds is another player the Awesemo projections love going into Sunday. The Cardinals have a massive implied team total of over 31 points and expect to be handing the ball off a lot late in this game. Arizona splits carries at running back but Edmonds usage includes a lot of PPR work (averaging 4.5 receptions per game) and is #overdue to find the end zone, after somehow not grabbing even a single touchdown on this explosive offense through six weeks. He’s projected for over 13 fantasy points here and makes for a great over target.
WR: Devonta Smith under 13.0 fantasy points
The Eagles rank just 17th in pass attempts per game and rookie Devonta Smith, despite leading the Eagles in target share through six weeks, has had three games already where he’s seen seven or less targets. Smith faces a tougher than expected matchup here against the Raiders too who have a solid shutdown corner in Casey Hayward and have limited wide receivers to just three touchdowns on the season. Smith’s red zone usage also isn’t ideal as he’s attached to a rushing quarterback in Jalen Hurts, who loves to take the ball in his own hands when near the goal line (five rushing touchdowns this year), and Smith has only seen two red zone targets the entire season to date.
Smith’s projection on Awesemo is also telling us to fade this total with an under here, as he’s got a low touchdown probability and is projected for under 11 fantasy points. Until the Eagles start throwing more in the red zone (doubtful for 2021) fading Smith on these bigger totals is the solid play.
- Chris Moore over 5.0 fantasy points: The Texans expect to be passing the ball lots late in this game and (perhaps even early) given that they are 17.5-point underdogs in this spot. Chris Moore is an experienced wideout who has been injected into the lineup for them recently and exploded for a big game last week with five catches for 107 yards and a touchdown. He’s now seen five-plus targets the last two weeks and seems likely to keep getting looks given the state of the Texans wide-out core behind Brandin Cooks. Pound the over here on a surprisingly low total.
TE: Mark Andrews under 14.0 fantasy points
After a hot stretch where he eclipsed 100 yards on multiple occasions and has scored three times in his last two games, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Mark Andrews cool off a bit here. The Ravens tight end is clearly the preferred possession target in Baltimore right now but still plays on a low-volume passing offense, which averages just 32.2 attempts per game, seventh-lowest in the league. The Ravens also take on the Bengals this week who play at one of the slowest paces of play in the league. Cincinnati has defended the tight end position well for the most part allowing the 12th-fewest receptions to the position thus far and just one receiving touchdown to opposing tight ends.
A matchup with the Bengals just isn’t great for fantasy purposes most weeks and the over/under on Andrews here is still pricing out that we’ll need an elite outing from him to make this over stick. The projections this week on Awesemo have Andrews going for a muted week too as they have him projected for under 10 fantasy points in this spot. It’s possible Andrews continues his touchdown luck here and converts on a red zone opportunity but expect a slightly decreased volume day, overall, which should push us towards the under on him as well.
- Mike Gesicki over 11.0 fantasy points: Mike Gesicki is trending pretty strongly again in the Awesemo point projections for the week. He’s now seen an average of 8.5 targets over his last four games and may again see a big target share with DeVante Parker listed as questionable and clearly not 100% after a week of just limited practices. Miami is throwing the ball over 39 times per game and play a faster-paced team in Atlanta here. The over feels like the right side to be on with Gesicki this week.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
Take a look at our inactive players, NFL starting lineups and NFL depth charts. We also have NFL showdown projections and single-game ownership projections. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS data for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL rankings, and daily fantasy football stacking. View our FanDuel DFS NFL rankings and our DraftKings NFL ownership rankings.
NFL DFS First Look: Week 13 DraftKings & FanDuel Picks
📽️ Week 12 Lineup Review NFL DFS Strategy Show
📽️ Learn NFL DFS: Fantasy Cruncher NFL Tutorial & Deep Dive
NFL DFS Showdown/Single-Game Ownership Projections for DraftKings and FanDuel
NFL DFS Projections for No House Advantage (FREE)
The NEW Awesemo NFL DFS Boom Bust Tool
NFL Player Props Tool
Awesemo’s NFL DFS Big Board