Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections and player prop tools, we will target the player’s totals and props that stick out as the best options and give an idea of why they might be good targets. PrizePicks requires a different approach than the typical NFL DFS strategy. The name of the game is finding potentially mispriced over/unders on player props or fantasy point totals for players in a specific game and melding them together to make winning combo tickets. With that said, let’s get into the best NFL PrizePicks for Week 6 Thursday Night Football, with the Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5).
PrizePicks NFL Picks: Week 6 Thursday Night Football
Quez Watkins Over 35.5 Yards Receiving
The Buccaneers defense has been a gold mine for receivers and quarterbacks this year. Teams are throwing the ball 45 times per game against Tampa, and they have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving to opposing wide receivers. The matchup aside, though, Quez Watkins might project as an over target against anyone at this low a total. Watkins comes into this game averaging 18.7 yards per catch and has gone over this paltry 35.5-yard total in three of his last four games. That is significant, as Watkins is still only averaging 3.4 targets per game.
There are rumblings in the Eagles organization that Watkins’ usage should rise soon enough, but with the opponent on tap, Watkins projects over his seasonal average. The Awesemo model agrees with that statement this week, as they have Watkins projected for five targets. Watkins has seen his yardage props rise a bit since the first two weeks, but they are still low enough for the over to hit on one big play, and it also does not factor in any increase in usage. He is a great over play in high-scoring game.
Jalen Hurts Over 45.5 Yards Rushing
The tendency against Tampa has been to target the overs on the opposing teams passing props, but the prop totals are starting to get wise to this angle. Jalen Hurts comes in with a big over/under wise (280.5 yards passing), but his rushing prop of 45.5 yards is 6 lower than his seasonal average of 51.2 per game. Tampa Bay is great against the run, but the Eagles (6.5-point underdogs) are projected to see at least some prevent defense late in this game, and more dropbacks should mean the potential for more off-the-cuff rushes for Hurts late in the game as well.
The Eagles have not backed off Hurts’ usage as a runner this season, as he has taken at least eight carries in each of his last four starts. Again, the projections are saying not to worry about the matchup, as Tampa plays at the fastest pace in the league. That increased opportunity as a result has him projected for well over 55 yards rushing in this spot.
Chris Godwin Under 64.5 Yards Receiving
Antonio Brown Over 61.5 Yards Receiving
Choosing between Buccaneers wide receivers can be difficult – although, they are involved in such a voluminous pass offense that some weeks all three end up getting there. This week all the big three project for similar yardage, which is why Antonio Brown is a good play despite the lowest yardage projection. Brown has seen 19 targets in his last two games and is the joker card in an offense where teams have to respect Mike Evans’ massive outside presence. Despite a COVID absence in Week 3, Brown has gone over this total in two straight games and seems unlikely to be slowed down by an Eagles defense that struggled against another quick wideout in Tyreek Hill two weeks ago.
The other factor is the fact that Chris Godwin has shown up on the injury report this week. It is not major, but he is on track to be questionable for this game, and any injury concerns on a short week should be taken seriously. Godwin also played his lowest snap total of the season last week (69%), so it is possible the Buccaneers are managing a lingering issue. This is a tricky situation to figure out most weeks, but Brown’s increasing target share and Godwin’s injury/snap decline makes the over on Brown and the under on Godwin a nice combo play.
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