Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections and player prop tools, I will target the player’s totals and props that stick out as the best options and give you an idea of why they might be good targets. With PrizePicks we need to use a different approach than the typical NFL DFS strategy. The name of the game is finding potentially mispriced over/unders on player props or fantasy point totals for players in a specific game and melding them together to make winning combo tickets. With that said, let’s get into the best NFL PrizePicks for Week 4 Thursday Night Football, with the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals.
PrizePicks NFL Picks: Week 4 Thursday Night Football
Joe Burrow Over 249.5 Yards Passing
Tyler Boyd Over 56.5 Yards Receiving
Despite the Bengals only throwing 25 times per game in 2021, the projections this week on Awesemo have Joe Burrow going for over 270 yards passing. Burrow has only gone over this total once in 2021 (Week 1 against Minnesota), but he is playing well. He completed 77% of his passes last week and has thrown for over 9.5 yards per attempt in two of three games this year. The Bengals have also improved their offensive line play and did not yield a single sack last week against a supposedly vaunted Pittsburgh front.
The opponent here should also help him out. Jacksonville has ceded a 74% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks and yielded the sixth-most yards passing against in the league. It is possible Jacksonville is so incompetent that the Bengals will only have to throw 15 to 17 times here, but given how efficient Burrow has been (and how bad Jacksonville has been at stopping competent quarterbacks), 20 or more attempts will likely be enough to hit the over here. The projections here are adamant that it will happen.
To pair with that bet, it likely a receiver or two on the Bengals will also go over their total. Tyler Boyd sticks out as the best target by a long shot. He is projected to have the most yards receiving of any Bengals receiver in this game and should get a huge bump in usage now that Tee Higgins has been ruled out. Boyd has not been as explosive as Ja’Marr Chase, but he leads the team in targets and should feast in the slot against a Jacksonville team that has been burned by multiple slot receivers for decent games in 2021. Boyd and Burrow just need a little volume, and if there are 20-plus pass attempts, both will have a great shot at the overs in this one.
James Robinson Over 52.5 Yards Rushing
James Robinson may be the one true bright spot for Jacksonville, as he comes into this game averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Robinson has carried the load for the Jaguars on offense, playing on over 60% of the snaps while also contributing as a receiver out of the backfield (12 catches on 15 targets). He does not have the greatest matchup on paper, as the Bengals defense comes into this game allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. Still, it has been a better spot to attack the Bengals than through the air, where Cincinnati has allowed just 5.4 yards per attempt and already has three interceptions.
Robinson has seen his rush attempts go up in each of the last three weeks and should be called upon a lot on this short week. He is projected for around 13 rush attempts but for well over 65 yards in the Awesemo prop tool as well. Regardless of how he fares, expect the Jaguars to give him touches on the ground for as long as possible so that they can hide the rawness of Trevor Lawrence who has completed just 54% of his passes this year and thrown seven interceptions.
Trevor Lawrence Under 17.5 Fantasy Points
Speaking of Lawrence, the projections also like targeting him in this game, but not for anything positive. While he could pile up some garbage-time yards, the Bengals have only ceded four touchdowns passing in 2021 to date and are limiting big plays by opposing quarterbacks. Lawrence has thrown for a touchdown in each of his first three games in the NFL but has averaged just 5.7 yards per completion, which is third lowest in the league.
While some might be expecting an easier day at the office here for Lawrence, 2021 Cincinnati also ranks fourth in sacks per game, so he could be under more duress than in weeks prior as well. The the slower pace these two teams have played at makes the over a little reckless, and it is likely better to trust the projections here, which say the under is the play.
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