Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections and player prop tools, I will target the player’s totals and props that stick out as the best options and give you an idea of why they might be good targets. With PrizePicks we need to use a different approach than the typical NFL DFS strategy. The name of the game is finding potentially mispriced over/unders on player props or fantasy point totals for players in a specific game and melding them together to make winning combo tickets. With that said, let’s get into the best NFL PrizePicks for Week 3 Thursday Night Football, with the Carolina Panthers vs. Houston Texans.
PrizePicks Fantasy NFL Picks: Week 3 Thursday Night Football
Mark Ingram over 37.5 rushing yards
Through two games, Mark Ingram has run the gauntlet of usage. In Week 1, he was able to take 26 rushes and even find the end zone in the Texans’ shock win over the Jaguars. In Week 2, he was far less effective as a rusher but still managed 14 rushes. The 14 rushes in a game where they were behind for much of the second half is encouraging. The Texans have used David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay in 2021, but those two have only really spelled Ingram or been used more as a pass-catcher in Johnson’s case.
We don’t care about pass-catching for this prop, though (in fact, we kind of hate it). Ingram goes against a Carolina team showing huge positive regression in stopping the run as opposed to last season when the Panthers allowed 4.7 yards per carry against — the fourth-worst mark in the league. Ingram isn’t projected for a monster game, but he is projected to get touches — over 11 of them, to be exact — and if he does get into double digits, his chances of hitting this over will be pretty good, regardless of opponent. Expect a conservative game plan here from Houston and for early-down work in the first parts of this game to be dominated by Ingram playing in the backfield.
Robby Anderson over 46.5 receiving yards
The Panthers receiving core has been a bit of a one-man show, with D.J. Moore dominating the targets (19) and the next highest wide receivers having seen just nine targets. Robby Anderson is still clearly entrenched as the No. 2 receiver in Carolina, though, and he has played over 75% of the snaps in each of the first two weeks. Given Anderson led the Panthers in targets last year — and has some history with Sam Darnold — we can likely expect this gap in volume between the two wideouts to close, eventually.
What that means is that we also have an excellent buy-low opportunity here for fantasy purposes. Anderson’s prop looks relatively low at under 50 receiving yards, and the Awesemo projections agree on that front. He’s modeled to have nearly 60 yards in this game as a receiver against a Houston defense that has given up 7.2 yards per pass attempt (12th-worst in the league). I like taking the over a lot of this number for PrizePicks purposes.
Davis Mills over 13 fantasy points
Rookie Davis Mills is being thrust into action tonight and, admittedly, it could be ugly. Going back to the preseason, Mills has struggled and completed just 46% of his passes in the warmup games in the late summer. For fantasy purposes tonight, though, Mills is starting and will likely see at least some prevent defenses late in this game (if he lasts that long). The Panthers’ defense has had a hot start, but they weren’t exactly world-beaters last year, and some regression is likely coming for that unit. Mills has an elite wide receiver in Brandin Cooks to work with, who is going up against young cornerbacks, and some decent pass-catchers out of the backfield, too.
Ultimately, this comes down to value and, at just 13 fantasy points, I’d much rather be on the over side of this prop with a quarterback who could also help out our cause by potentially running a couple of times (he rushed for three touchdowns in his final year of college). The projections on Awesemo also have Mills’ fantasy total slightly higher than this for Week 3, and it’s enough to make this one a target for me. Don’t expect a massive breakout, but even a semi-competent game should get us there.
Favorite Combo: Sam Darnold over 263.5 passing yards & Robby Anderson over 46.5 receiving yards
Darnold comes into this game having posted a 68% completion rate and is averaging 292 yards passing per game through two weeks. He’s even up in the top half of the league in yards per pass attempt, so he’s being far more aggressive than he ever was in New York. Maybe this is a mirage, but Darnold does get another weak matchup to take advantage of this week. Houston is fifth-worst in sacks per game thus far, and there are no stud pass rushers to worry about here. The only worry is that the 8-point favorite Panthers get up big and limit Darnold’s pass attempts. Still, his Awesemo projection here has him going for nearly 270 yards and well over his PrizePicks over/under.
If we like Darnold, I also love pairing him with Anderson here (see above), who has one of the most attackable receiving props on this slate due to his slow start. If you want to target the Panthers’ passing game here, pairing these two makes a ton of sense on PrizePicks today.
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