Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections and player prop tools, I will target the player’s totals and props that stick out as the best options and give you an idea of why they might be good targets. With PrizePicks we need to use a different approach than the typical NFL DFS strategy. The name of the game is finding potentially mispriced over/unders on player props or fantasy point totals for players in a specific game and melding them together to make winning combo tickets. With that said, let’s get into the best NFL PrizePicks for Week 5 Thursday Night Football, with the Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (+2.5).
PrizePicks NFL Picks: Week 5 Thursday Night Football
Matthew Stafford Over 297.5 Yards Passing
The projections for this game have both quarterbacks going over their respective PrizePicks totals by significant margins, but Matthew Stafford looks like the better play. He started out the season by throwing for at least 278 yards in his first four games and faces a Seattle team that has bled big plays in the secondary allowed over 310 yards passing in each of the last three games. Seattle is also giving teams tons of opportunities to pass on them again. They led the league in opponent pass attempts in 2021, and their opponents have averaged 39.2 pass attempts against them in 2021 (seventh most in the league).
If Stafford were on the main slate this week, he would likely be one of the most targeted plays across the industry, but with the Seahawks and Rams on Thursday Night Football, hammering his over prop on PrizePicks is a good way to take advantage. Awesemo also gives him the highest projected passing total of any quarterback in Week 5. Considering Stafford is setting career highs in yards per attempt, yards per completion and net air yards, he is not someone to fade against weak pass defenses, even if his total looks ridiculously high.
Tyler Lockett Over 66.5 Yards Receiving
Tyler Lockett dealt with some injuries going into Week 4 but still managed four catches on five targets, albeit for just 24 yards. Lockett’s targets have been all over the place in 2021, as he has received five targets or fewer in three games but has breached 100 yards receiving in two of four games. The setup for Thursday Night Football seems like it would favor a big game from Lockett, as the expectation is that Jalen Ramsey will be shadowing D.K. Metcalf. Neither Lockett nor Metcalf did much against the Rams last year, but Los Angeles is playing at a faster pace in 2021 (fourth fastest in the league), and opponents against Los Angeles are averaging 40.8 pass attempts, per game.
Russell Wilson’s overs on passing props also look good, but Lockett’s over/under stands out as a great over play. His projection for the week has him at well over 70 yards receiving, and the Rams (for all their star power on defense) have given up the 12th-most yards receiving to wideouts on the season (and two 100-yard games already). Lockett’s total looks too small to fade, and his projection says his over is one of the best receiving props to target tonight.
Russell Wilson Over 21.5 Yards Rushing
Chris Carson Under 0.5 Touchdowns
Playing Russell Wilson on his own to go over his medium-sized rushing prop is fine, but fading Chris Carson’s rushing props with Wilson’s over is one way to correlate a couple wagers. Carson (questionable) has dealt with neck issues all week and may not even play in this game. If he does play, he also may lose quite a bit of work to Alex Collins, who looked far more explosive last week and played on a season-high 39% of the snaps. The biggest indicator against Carson’s touchdown prop, though, is that Collins out-touched Carson 3-to-1 in the red zone last week, and Carson enters the short week injured.
Another byproduct of Carson not being 100% could be Wilson taking the ball in his own hands a few more times than usual. Wilson has at least three carries in each of his four starts of 2021 and set a season high with 26 yards last week. In his last five meetings with the Rams, he has gone over 21.5 yards four times, and Awesemo has his rushing projection a few points higher than his current PrizePicks total.
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