The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots on Week 16 of Monday Night Football. The game total is 47 points, and the Bills are 7-point favorites. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy football advice, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
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Week 16 Daily Fantasy Football Advice: DraftKings NFL DFS Picks
Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Showdown Captain
Josh Allen
The primary choice at Captain is going to come down to Allen versus one of his receivers. The argument in favor of Allen is clear. Allen has eight rushing scores and is averaging 6.9 carries for 27.4 yards per game. He has also dispersed his 30 scores to 12 different players. Gabriel Davis inexplicably leads the team with six touchdown receptions. Allen has the ability to score without bringing his receivers along for the ride and throws touchdowns to a bevy of different receiving options.
Stefon Diggs
Diggs gets a slight advantage over Allen because of his price and chance of out-scoring Allen if both go off. Our Top Showdown Plays Tool has Diggs as a slightly higher chance of leading the slate in scoring at significantly reduced ownership. He’s also cheaper than Allen. Diggs leads the NFL in receptions while playing one fewer game than most receivers. Both players have a good chance of leading the slate in scoring, but Diggs is going to be far less popular.
Cole Beasley
John Brown has missed six games this year. In those games, Beasley has averaged 6.8 receptions for 78.3 receiving yards. He has three games with more than 100 receiving yards in that span. Brown hasn’t been ruled out yet, so his status ahead of game time is worth monitoring. Even if he does play, it could be on a limited basis. Paying down for Beasley at Captain is a great way to get multiple expensive players in a lineup with modest ownership.
Ben Rasa's Bet of the Day Awesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.NFL Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Cam Newton
Newton is a viable play at Captain, but quarterbacks generally come in with heightened ownership at the premier position in Showdown. Someone like Beasley carries a similar chance of leading the slate in scoring at nearly half the ownership. That leaves Newton as a better play in the Flex. He makes extra sense there as one of one or two Patriots used in a Bills-heavy lineup. Newton has averaged 17 DraftKings points in wins and 18 points in losses. The opportunity to throw more often and run more plays gives him an edge if he can hold the starting job for all four frames of a loss.
Devin Singletary and Zack Moss
Singletary and Moss have combined for one game over 20 points this year. That game was eight weeks ago when Moss scored twice against the Patriots. When both backs have been healthy, Singletary has one game over 15 touches and Moss has zero. Singletary’s one notable game from a usage perspective came when Moss fumbled the ball in his own end zone and was benched for most of the game. Moss has out-carried Singletary 26-to-15 over the past two weeks but does not have a reception in those games. He could work in Bills-heavy lineups as the back who gets most of the work while up multiple scores. Neither looks like a good value at their respective prices for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
Damien Harris and Sony Michel
Harris has a chance to play tonight after missing last week with an ankle injury. Michel returned to the field in Week 12 but didn’t see any action on offense until the following two weeks. Harris out-carried him 27-to-17, and much of Michel’s work came at the tail end of a blowout over the Chargers. If Harris plays, he may come in exceptionally low-owned relative to his upside.
James White
White essentially plays the role of a low-aDOT receiver for the Patriots. He is averaging 2.6 carries for 8.9 yards rushing per game this year to go along with his 3.5 receptions for 26.8 yards receiving. He has scored in just one game this year. White can reach the optimal lineup on receptions alone which should help him combat his offenses’ overall lack of productivity. If one of the New England receivers scores a touchdown, they likely will edge out White unless the Patriots players dominate the leaderboards for this game.
Patriots Receivers
New England has been working with a healthy group of receivers since Week 10:
- N’Keal Harry – 12% target share, 16% air yards share
- Damiere Byrd – 21% target share, 31% air yards share
- Jakobi Meyers – 26% target share, 34% air yards share
Meyers is clearly the top receiver for the Patriots, but he and Byrd have traded off that role weekly. Harry looks like the odd man out and is the worst play of the three.
Defense and Kicker
The Bills defense is going to draw some ownership despite being priced up to $5,400 ahead of their date with a lacking New England offense. The Patriots are one of two teams who run the ball more often than they pass. That limits the upside of the Buffalo defense and makes them a potential fade in favor of kickers.
The Bills are attempting the fifth-most field goal attempts per game, while New England is exactly at league average. Buffalo is also favored by 7 points in this game, which should put Tyler Bass in position to kick field goals or extra points far more often. Bass is only $200 more than Nick Folk and projects as a solid value.
Gabriel Davis
Over the past four weeks, Davis has averaged 2.8 catches for 46 yards and 0.8 touchdown. Those games were all played with Brown out of the lineup. If Brown returns, he likely will push Davis to the bench too often to make Davis a viable play.
Low-Owned DFS Picks Monday Night Football | DraftKings + FanDuel
Dawson Knox
The Bills have been making Tyler Kroft inactive in recent weeks, and Knox’s numbers have shown a corresponding uptick. Since Week 10, Knox is averaging four targets per game. For his $5,600 cost, that role is not worth the money. That price should also keep his ownership in check though. Going with a Diggs/Allen/Knox stack instead of Beasley or Davis will increase a lineup’s leverage at the expense of median projection.
Dalton Keene
Keene has played on over half of New England’s snaps in each of the past two weeks. He saw two targets last week and could be a beneficiary of the team’s negative game script. However, he’s primarily a blocker on a team that will likely skew run-heavy even if they are losing. He’s worth a flier in the largest DraftKings and FanDuel contests and nothing more.
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